Picking the right players and knowing who to fade are critical factors in forming a competitive fantasy basketball team. We’ve covered the guards and forwards facing competition or injury concerns; today, we close out our positional look by zeroing in on three centers to avoid in fantasy basketball drafts.
Brook Lopez – C, Milwaukee Bucks
Lopez, 36, is winning the race against Father Time, missing just seven games over the past two seasons while averaging 30 minutes per night. Mr. Splash Mountain remains a reliable source of 3s and blocks, but outside those areas, Lopez doesn’t offer much to fantasy managers in category or points leagues. He’s entering his 17th NBA season and while his job security is solid, he’s showing signs of decline.
Last season marked the third consecutive campaign in which his usage rate dropped. He finished the 23-24 season with a 15.9 usage rate — 39th percentile in the league. His shot volume is trending down, but his shot selection is also moving further from the basket, negatively impacting his efficiency. Per Cleaning the Glass, Lopez is 16th percentile in offensive rebounds and ninth in defensive rebounding. He’s 7-feet tall, grabbing five rebounds a night, yikes.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s still an elite shot blocker, but his lack of mobility is a weakness opponents will exploit ad nauseam. The demand of an 82-game schedule will surely catch up to him. Even if he comes out hot like last season, expect him to hit a wall around February/March, where his counting stat production suffered outside of his shot-blocking.
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Lopez’s blocks elevate his value more than most, so he finished 46th in 9-cat leagues last season. Although, if he’s not getting over two swats per game, he won’t come close to his seventh-round ADP. Instead, focus on targeting the big men who offer more production in different areas, like Jusuf Nurkić, Mark Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein — all players drafted after Lopez. And if it’s blocks you’re seeking, grab Walker Kessler or Zach Edey, who are going after pick 100 in Yahoo leagues.
Clint Capela – C, Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks have been shopping Capela for years, yet he’s still holding down the title of one of the most underrated bigs in fantasy basketball. However, I’m not convinced it’ll continue, as the Hawks gave 23-year-old Onyeka Okongwu a four-year, $62 million deal over the 30-year-old Capela, who is in the final year of his contract.
It’s concerning that Capela played in just 25 minutes per game last season, his lowest mark since the 2016-2017 campaign and the sixth consecutive year his minutes decreased from the previous season.
Can you guess whose minutes have been trending up over the past four seasons? None other than his understudy, Okongwu.
Another red flag for Capela is his loss of scoring efficiency near the rim. A career 62% shooter from the field, Capela shot 57% from the field last year, the lowest since his rookie season. In a league where versatility matters, Capela’s inability to shoot beyond 10 feet limits the offense, especially when Okongwu can stretch the floor and is a competent free-throw shooter.
I’m not saying Capela will go away because his size is important on the interior as a rim protector and rebounder. However, Okongwu will be the one you’ll want to roster long-term. Capela’s ADP at 86 is overstated, and I’d much rather select Okongwu, who is going 30 spots after Capela.
Mitchell Robinson – C, New York Knicks
Fading MRob is less about the Karl-Anthony Towns trade and more about his inability to stay healthy. It’s hard to believe he’s still just 25 years old, but the Knicks center is without a clear timetable for his return after suffering a setback following surgery on his left ankle in the offseason.
Last season, Robinson was on pace for an All-Defensive team bid as the anchor of Tom Thibodeau’s aggressive defense. He averaged nearly nine rebounds with over a block and a steal per game through December. Then he got hurt and didn’t come back until late March. While getting some reps in before the playoffs was beneficial, he succumbed to another ankle injury in the second round that forced him to miss the rest of the postseason. It’s been one bad beat after another.
Fantasy managers are likely still remembering Robinson finished 53rd in per-game value a couple of years ago and has been a top 80 player in all but two seasons. His rebounding, FG% and stocks made him a useful big man in fantasy, but he’s only managed to play over 60 games three times in six seasons. While there’s no firm return date for his latest ankle injury, the target is reportedly December or January — meaning he’ll miss at least the first two months of the season.
It’s not a good start to the season and while his 11th-round ADP is modest, I’m surprised he’s been drafted in 95% of leagues. The Knicks’ frontcourt depth is pretty weak behind Towns and there are already reports that the Knicks will be cautious with Robinson, so who knows when he’ll return to play. I’d pass on him altogether instead of soaking up an IR spot you might need later.
