Marvin Harrison Jr. hit 20 MPH on his second touchdown catch of Week 2
Harrison Jr. posted a 4/130/2 receiving line with two long scores versus the Rams.
MHJ has risen one week after the non-ball-knowers pronounced him a bust because he clocked a slow GPS time.
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The Falcons have a -9.2 percent pass rate over expected
To be fair to Atlanta, that’s not even in the bottom five because of how often offenses are leaning on the run this year. The Falcons are likely using their ground game, which ranks 12th in yards per carry and 13th in success rate, to ease Kirk Cousins back into football. Cousins struggled in his first game back from the torn Achilles but played better in Week 2. I expect the Falcons to ramp up his volume in the coming weeks, though our pre-season expectations for their pass rate were almost certainly too high.
Lamar Jackson’s deep throws rate of 10.7 percent is his lowest since his rookie season
Even worse, Jackson is 1-of-8 on his deep attempts. The Ravens bet on Rashod Bateman to take the next step and fill a role as Jackson’s deep threat and that hasn’t happened. They are now stuck funneling targets to Zay Flowers, who has double-digit targets in both games so far.
The Bills rank 27th in pass rate on early downs
This is despite being a top-three offense when passing on early downs and just the No. 11 running back on early downs. They have a negative five percent pass rate over expected (PROE). That has powered James Cook to 149 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. The Jags don’t look like they can push Buffalo to pass more in Week 3, so expect another heavy dose of Cook this week.
Over the past two years, Andy Dalton ranks 22nd in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE
That is out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks. Bryce Young ranks 39th and 37th in the two stats. Dalton isn’t going to save this franchise, but he’s going to save fantasy managers who invested in Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Xavier Legette.
Caleb Williams is averaging 2.8 yards per attempt on pressured throws
That ranks last among quarterbacks with at least 10 pressured throws. Even worse, his pressure to sack rate is the second-highest in the NFL and he has been pressured the fourth-most times. Williams isn’t handling pressure well and his team is exacerbating the issue by putting him in that spot far too often.
Chase Brown does not have a carry inside the five this year and has run a route on 24 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks
Brown is hardly even seeing change-of-pace usage for the Bengals, let alone forcing a true committee. Zack Moss has out-carried him 21-7 and upped his snap share to 82 percent in Week 2. Brown is buried in the RB4/5 ranks until his role grows substantially.
The Browns rank fourth in the NFL in PROE (+2.7 percent) and fifth in pace (25.2 seconds per play)
Cleveland has run the seventh-most plays on offense. They led the NFL in plays per game last year. This hasn’t mattered much because they rank 28th in EPA per dropback and are a slightly below-average team on the ground. If Deshaun Watson ever turns things around or the Browns transition to Jameis Winston, this will be a fun offense.
Jalen Tolbert led the Cowboys in targets (nine) and air yards (104)
Tolbert is running as the Cowboys’ WR3 right now. Brandin Cooks is ahead of him on the depth charts but is off to another dreadful start in the spreadsheets, averaging a dismal .9 yards per route run. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tolbert overtake him later in the year.
Greg Dulcich earned a 25 percent target share in Week 2
Dulcich has run a route on 68 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks through two games. That’s not a great number, but it would put him in the TE2 conversation if the Broncos could do anything on offense. Unfortunately, they cannot.
Amon-Ra St. Brown saw 18 targets…and Jameson Williams still saw 11
Williams broke out with 121 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1. St. Brown was quiet in that game, giving the Williams doubters at least one reason to think his lofty workload wouldn’t last. His target share fell in Week 2 but stayed above 20 percent. He also saw 36 percent of the team’s air yards. Even with St. Brown getting his, Williams is here to stay.
Josh Jacobs saw the most carries for a Green Bay back since 2008.
With Jordan Love out, the Packers put their offense on Jacobs’ back, giving him the rock 32 times. The last time a Green Bay back saw that many attempts was when Ryan Grant ran 33 times in Week 6 of the 2008 season. MarShawn Lloyd was put on injured reserve to help him recover from a lingering hamstring issue after Week 2. Jacobs’ workload is going to be insane until Love returns and will remain strong even as Green Bay shifts back toward the pass.
Tank Dell ran a route on 85 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks
Nico Collins took over in Week 2, but Dell was out there just as often as Stefon Diggs. Collins has cemented himself as the clear No. 1 receiver of the group. Still, Dell is running all of the routes on an elite passing attack and is a talented player in his own right. Hold the faith. The big games are coming.
Jonathan Taylor logged a 49 percent snap share.
Taylor dropped a pass and fumbled a reception out of bounds on his four targets in Week 2. The fumble came near the end of the third quarter. Taylor did not log a snap in the fourth quarter. The Colts were in hurry-up mode in the final frame and only ran the ball with a running back twice, but Taylor was either benched outright or has no trust in pass-protection from his coaches.
Brenton Strange has the most air yards in a game (119) for a tight end this year
Strange took over the starting job in Jacksonville last week after Evan Engram suffered a hamstring injury in pre-game warmups. Strange led the team in targets (nine) and had an absurd aDOT of 17 yards. That will come back to Earth, but the athletic, second-round tight end appears to have some juice.
Travis Kelce has been targeted on 13 percent of his routes
For reference, that figure was 23 percent last year and 25 percent in 2022. His first-read target share has also plummeted. Patrick Mahomes has looked his way on 18 percent of his first-read throws. That was 23 percent last year. Kelce dominated in the playoffs last season, showing he can still turn on the magic when needed, but the Chiefs are seemingly content reducing his workload until January.
Brock Bowers has the most receptions (15) and yards (156) for a tight end in their first two games ever
Bowers is three catches clear of the No. 2 player and also holds the highest target total in a tight end’s first two games. He and Trey McBride are in a two-horse race for the TE1 overall crown this year. Bowers is my dynasty TE1 already.
Quentin Johnston is averaging 2.1 yards per route run
He ranks top 25 in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade. Johnston also leads the Chargers in all receiving stats with an 8/89/2 line on 11 targets. Despite a disastrous rookie season, Johnston has genuinely turned things around to start his second campaign.
Los Angeles Rams
Demarcus Robinson has run a route on 90 percent of the Rams’ passing plays this year
That will approach 100 percent going forward. Cooper Kupp played one half of football in Week 2 before an ankle injury knocked him out. He wasn’t put on injured reserve but is still expected to miss multiple weeks. Puka Nacua, on the other hand, is on IR. Robinson will be joined by Tyler Johnson for most of LA’s passing plays. Johnson’s route rate hit 78 percent in Week 2. The Rams don’t have a clear WR3 at the moment, but Jordan Whittington appears to have the inside track. He was on the field for 10-of-11 dropbacks for Matthew Stafford in the second half.
De’Von Achane beat his previous career-high in touches by seven
Achane touched the ball 29 times in Week 2, including seven receptions. He leads all running backs in targets and receptions. Raheem Mostert was out, but Mike McDaniel clearly knows what to do when his back is against the wall.
#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel thinks De’Von Achane could make a case for even more touches:
“It’s hard not to give guys opportunities that really are thirsting for the ball, they’re doing something with it… All he’s done is give us more reasons to give him the ball.” pic.twitter.com/qwMzObRwX7
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 16, 2024
Ty Chandler out-carried Aaron Jones 10-9
Jones saw a much larger share of Minnesota’s backfield work in Week 1 and out-carried Chandler 14-8. That dynamic flipped last week and may be related to the hip injury that Jones is now dealing with. The former Packer was limtied in Wednesday’s practice and should be good to go for Week 3. But he’s also a “former Packer” at least in part because of his inability to stay healthy. It would make plenty of sense for the Vikings to limit his workload via a healthy dose of Chandler carries going forward.
Hunter Henry led all tight ends in target share (30 percent) and air yards share (31 percent)
I don’t have much to add to this because the numbers tell the whole story. Jacoby Brissett is leaning on Henry as his top pass-catcher. Henry caught eight passes for 109 yards in Week 2 and is shaping up to be a low-end TE1 going forward.
Chris Olave earned PFF’s highest receiving grade in Week 2
PFF gave Olave a 91.3 grade, the highest of his career. He also dominated the Saints’ opportunities. Derek Carr looked his way on 40 percent of his attempts. Olave earned 56 percent of the team’s air yards. This type of usage on an offense…as good as the Saints…is going to give us big names in the near future.
Malik Nabers saw the fifth-most targets (18) for a rookie in the past 30 years
Nabers saw a respectable seven targets in Week 1 and caught five balls for 66 yards. Daniel Jones understood the assignment in Week 2 and looked Nabers’ way on a stunning 64 percent of his throws.
https://x.com/Doug_Analytics/status/1835424498222264613
This comically high usage won’t continue, but it does point us in the direction of Nabers sitting at the top of the WR2 ranks.
Mike Williams ran a route on 73 percent of the Jets’ dropbacks
Williams barely played in Week 1. He suffered a torn ACL early in the 2023 season and the Jets were understandably easing him back into the lineup. That process appears nearly complete as he earned a full-time role last week. He was also removed from the injury report entirely heading into Week 3. Williams is worth an add if he hit the waiver wire after his slow start.
Devonta Smith saw 62 percent of the Eagles’ air yards
That would have been Smith’s second-highest mark of the 2023 season. He was on the receiving end of 38 percent of Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts. A.J. Brown is likely to miss multiple weeks because of a hamstring injury. Smith is locked in for WR1 numbers until he returns.
Jaylen Warren led the Steelers’ running backs in routes
Warren logged a 29 percent snap share in Week 1 and saw just two carries. He upped those numbers to 45 percent and nine while also leading the team in routes (11). Cordarrelle Patterson was almost entirely phased out of the game.
San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle has averraged 19.6 PPR points per game with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup over the past two seasons
Deebo is expected to miss a few weeks with a calf injury. Christian McCaffrey, as you may have heard, is on injured reserve. Kittle’s splits without Samuel available are off the charts.
Arguably the most important note for this split is the target increase. His 5.4 target per game pace with Deebo would have put him at 15th among tight ends last year. His pace without Deebo—7.3 targets per game—would have been good for fifth.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks with 13 first-read targets
JSN accounted for 45 percent of Geno Smith’s first-read attempts. He set career highs in:
The Seahawks let it rip with a pass rate 12 percent over expected and three receivers on the field for 88 percent of their passing plays versus the Patriots.
Rachaad White ranks 47th in the NFL in PFF run grade and rush yards over expected per carry
White is now expected to play through a groin injury he suffered in Week 2. White is still seeing all of the high-value touches. He has seven receptions and two carries inside the five-yard line. Rookie Bucky Irving has zero of both. But White’s horrific efficiency metrics dating back to his rookie season are a concern for his workload.
Tony Pollard ranks seventh in the NFL in yards after contact per carry (3.9).
Pollard is also top-10 in missed tackles forced per attempt. His 1.53 yards per route run is the second-best mark of his career. Tyjae Spears was supposed to get more involved in the Tennessee offense in Week 2 but suffered an ankle injury. Spears has already said he will play through the issue, but it could prevent his workload from increasing in Week 3. Pollard, who is dominating the carries for Tennessee and now looks back to form, is moving up the RB2 ranks.
Terry McLaurin has seen 67 percent of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage
McLaurin was seeing short targets at a 52 percent clip last year and a 48 percent clip in the prior season. McLaurin is seeing fewer air yards on a low-volume offense that converts dropbacks to pass attempts at an extremely low rate.
https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1836063967728329149
Jayden Daniels should settle in and improve his passing output as the season goes on, but it’s hard to see how McLaurin pays off his ADP at this pace.
