The NFL decided not to ease anyone into the regular season.
The best possible matchup for the traditional Thursday night season opener with the reigning Super Bowl champs was the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Instead of saving that AFC championship game rematch for later in the season, the NFL scheduled it for opening night. Let’s go.
Here’s a look at Week 1’s betting angles, with all the spreads and odds from BetMGM.
Thursday night: Lamar Jackson is great as an underdog
This number might say as much about Jackson’s great career as any: The Baltimore Ravens have been an underdog 14 times with Jackson as their quarterback, and they’re 12-2 against the spread according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.
Despite that history, this is a pretty tough spot for Baltimore to start the season. The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won a Super Bowl last season, beating the Ravens in the AFC championship game along the way, and they look even better on paper this season. The Ravens are breaking in new defensive coordinator Zach Orr after Mike Macdonald took the Seattle Seahawks head-coaching job, and figuring out Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in your first game is a tough ask.
Surprising line of Week 1: Steelers at Falcons
We all know that Mike Tomlin doesn’t have losing seasons. Understood. But the Steelers offense had a pretty bad preseason. And while it’s the preseason, they were also trying to figure out their quarterback situation and a new scheme with coordinator Arthur Smith. They just looked bad. And despite that, they’re just 3-point road favorites at the Atlanta Falcons.
If you believe that new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins might be rusty, coming off a torn Achilles and not playing at all in the preseason, that’s reasonable. It’s just surprising to see a much-improved Falcons team have to lay just a field goal at home.
The people’s MVP pick: C.J. Stroud
The most tickets for any player in the NFL MVP market at BetMGM are on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. In that market, 12.1% of the bets are on Stroud, who has 11-to-1 odds at BetMGM. Stroud had one of the greatest rookie seasons a quarterback has ever had, and plenty of people expect improvement.
Anthony Richardson was a rookie last season too but the Indianapolis Colts quarterback only played a few games due to injury. When he did play, it was great. Richardson is healthy as the Colts start the season at home against the Texans, and Indianapolis is a 3-point underdog. The Texans were the buzzy team of the offseason but don’t forget how close the Colts were to beating them for the division title with Gardner Minshew II starting at quarterback most of the season.
The most-bet team to make the playoffs is one that hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2015 season, went 8-9 last season and is starting a rookie quarterback who was the sixth QB selected in his class. The Broncos are the most popular selection to make the playoffs among BetMGM bettors. Of all the bets on the Broncos to make or not make the playoffs, 97% of the bets are on Denver making the postseason. The Broncos are +450 odds to make the playoffs.
In addition, bettors love over 5.5 wins for the Broncos.
While Bo Nix did look good in the preseason, that’s the preseason. We’ll see if he can replicate that starting in Week 1 against the Seahawks. The Seattle crowd is loud and new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is a defensive master. Seattle is a 6-point favorite.
Prop of the week: Tony Pollard receiving yards
We didn’t see a ton of the Tennessee Titans‘ new offense in the preseason, but did get a taste. And we saw their backs catching the ball.
New Titans coach Brian Callahan will transform the Titans offense. Pollard played just 19 snaps in the preseason, and he caught four passes for 38 yards. Callahan wasn’t showing everything, but it makes sense that he’d want Pollard and backup Tyjae Spears involved in the passing game. Pollard looked explosive again in the preseason after a disappointing season.
All of that is why it was surprising to see Pollard’s receiving yardage prop for Tennessee’s Week 1 game at the Chicago Bears at just 10.5 yards. That seems low, based on what we saw this preseason.
In Yahoo Survival Football, 46% of the picks are on the Cincinnati Bengals beating the New England Patriots. While survival pools are built on laments of “That team looked like a lock, how did they lose?” it does seem the Bengals are the safe pick. We think.
Not every favorite is going to win though. Which pick might cause the most carnage? The New Orleans Saints are getting 10.2% of the picks this week against the Carolina Panthers. Those are from your contrarians who hope the Patriots pull the upset. But don’t completely underestimate the Panthers. This is a much better Panthers roster with a new coach in Dave Canales. The Panthers are 4-point underdogs against a Saints team that isn’t going to impress anyone this season. Beware.
Monday night: A fantastic Jets-49ers matchup
How much will the 49ers contract drama of the last month be a lingering distraction? We’ll find out. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams got their contracts but will they be in optimal football shape? Perhaps but we won’t know until Monday night.
The 49ers and New York Jets don’t get an easy start to the season. They face each other with the Jets as 4-point underdogs. The Jets are loaded, they just haven’t been able to show it because they’ve been stuck with awful quarterback play. This season they hope Aaron Rodgers lasts more than four plays. If he does the Jets are going to be very good. Don’t be surprised if they give the 49ers an upset scare.
