Patriots Mailbag: Can Drake Maye be the best QB in 2024 draft class?

Patriots Mailbag: Can Drake Maye be the best QB in 2024 draft class? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Patriots haven’t won two games in a row in over two years. Can that change Sunday at Gillette Stadium against a Rams team traveling cross-country on a short week after a Monday night loss to the lowly Dolphins?

Before we preview Patriots-Rams, we’ve got mailbag questions to answer. Let’s dive right in…

The coaching staff certainly deserves credit. Not only do Drake Maye’s fundamentals look better — is anyone spending much time talking about bad footwork or the “hitch” in his throwing motion that received a lot of attention before the season? — but he also appears to have a good understanding of the offensive concepts being thrown his way.

The ball is either out on time, or he recognizes he has to make something happen quickly and he does. While he’s been one of the best off-script quarterbacks in football this year, and while he has to go off-script on a fairly regular basis behind a patchwork offensive line, he certainly looks more comfortable in the Patriots scheme when compared to Caleb Williams and what he’s been asked to do in Chicago.

When it comes to the coaching staff, things haven’t been perfect. No question. But another point in this staff’s favor is that you could argue they have the NFL’s least talented group of offensive players around the quarterback position, and yet they have been better this season than they were last season — with a very highly-regarded offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien on the staff — in a number of key situations where good coaching is critical.

With Maye behind center, the Patriots are better on third down (34 percent versus 30 percent in 2023), in the red zone (64 percent success rate versus 58 percent in 2023) and in two-minute situations (seven scores with two minutes or less left in the second and fourth quarters versus three last year). A significant portion of that success is due to the quarterback running the controls, but the coaching staff deserves some credit as well.

Just to amplify the point that situational football isn’t all about the quarterback, Tom Brady — clearly a far more capable player than Maye in his rookie season — led an offense in 2019 that had a red-zone success rate of 49 percent, which is 15 points lower than the red-zone touchdown rate the Patriots have compiled with Maye.

Is that because Maye is a better player than Brady was then? Or are there other factors involved? We’ll answer that one. There are other factors involved. And coaching has to be on the list.

Kleaver, yes, Drake Maye’s development is the single most important thing the franchise can oversee between now and the end of the season. But it’s also far from the only thing that matters.

They should want to see development from the new head coach and his two new coordinators. They should want to watch other young players, specifically the players in the offensive huddle with Maye, grow into roles that clarify their projections for 2025. And the development of a culture as this season (which, you’re right, very likely isn’t going to end in a playoff berth) comes down the stretch is critical.

Be the team no one wants to play at the end of the season. Be a pain in the ass. Form an identity that will last well beyond the end of the year. If all they do is build up the quarterback — as important as that is — then they will have left a myriad of other building opportunities on the table.

Good question, Setti. Biggest positives? Players are still playing hard. The contrast between Chicago’s effort last week and New England’s was stark. And the Bears went into that game much more in the playoff hunt than the Patriots did. You’d also have to mention the play of the young quarterback as perhaps the biggest positive development of the entire season.

Biggest concerns? That they haven’t found many answers on the offensive line or in the receiver room for 2025 and beyond.

There’s still time for players to develop and look like dependable contributors for next season, but those players need to start ramping up their level of play starting now. If they got their quarterback of the future last offseason — and it looks like they did — that’s huge. Obviously. But if that was the only position they were able to solidify last offseason, when there were so many glaring holes elsewhere on the offense, that’s a serious disappointment.

Kayshon Boutte. Give him credit. I certainly didn’t see him emerging this season and establishing himself as arguably their most dependable wideout. But that’s the track he’s on. He’s put plays on tape deep down the field and in the intermediate area, and his hands are among the best on the team.

He’s one of those young players who has clearly established he can be part of the receiver group for next year. I’d put DeMario Douglas in that category. Javon Baker isn’t there yet. Ja’Lynn Polk will be around because of his draft status, but he needs to use the rest of this season to make it clear that he’s more than a depth option if he wants to enter 2025 as a top-two guy at the position in Foxboro.

Will be interesting to see how that goes, Dane. Bill Belichick’s son Brian is obviously still here on the staff. Jerod Mayo has been very complimentary of Brian’s work with the safety group — which has seen a great deal of turnover with Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers missing time — but you’d assume that if Bill Belichick gets a head-coaching job, he’d like to have his son join him elsewhere.

My question would be this: Which team is going to hire Belichick to run their show? Dallas? Chicago? The Giants? The Eagles seemed like the best option for Belichick, but they’re 8-2 after a win on Thursday Night Football and it’s hard to envision Nick Sirianni going anywhere at the moment.

I still hold the same opinion, Bob. Maye’s combination of playmaking instincts, arm talent, size, toughness (physical and mental) and leadership traits all make him the guy I think will ultimately have the best career of any quarterback in the class.

That said, I loved Jayden Daniels coming out, and part of the reason I slated him behind Maye was because of durability concerns. While Maye hasn’t been bulletproof (he exited the team’s Week 8 win over the Jets with a concussion), Daniels looks to me like he’s still dealing with the residual effects of a rib injury he suffered about a month ago. He’s rushed for just 23 yards total in the last two weeks.

Maye has been the more turnover-prone passer, but he had about half the number of collegiate starts Daniels did, and I think in a few years, with more experience Maye will pull ahead of the rest of the class. Will be fun to see how it plays out for all of them, Bo Nix (who has clearly improved under Sean Payton) and Michael Penix Jr. included.

Baker’s lack of snaps is more due to Baker than anything else going on around him, in my opinion. They wouldn’t hesitate to get him out there more if they felt he was ready to play and contribute in a positive manner. They’re desperate for young receiver help, and they would love to get another player not named Drake Maye going from this year’s draft class.

To me, the question is how patient will they be with him? Is he guaranteed to be back next year, and are they assuming he’ll be able to contribute then? They believe in his talent. Still. I can say that confidently. But talent only takes a player so far. He needs to earn the coaching staff’s trust.

It’s an interesting discussion, Nikitas, and one we had with the great Dane Brugler of The Athletic recently on Next Pats. The tackle class this year isn’t considered all that strong. Will Campbell from LSU has length concerns. Kelvin Banks from Texas is considered by some to be a better fit at guard.

I’d also consider, if I were the Patriots, the fact that the receivers deemed top-of-the-draft worthy seem to be better bets to hit in recent years than the linemen do. (That to me speaks to what’s been emphasized at the college level and what’s available to NFL teams as a result.)

All that would lead me to lean in the direction of a receiver, whether it’s Travis Hunter from Colorado — who may prefer to be a full-time corner — or Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona or someone else. If the Patriots rattle off a few wins here, they may see the top five or so players go off the board before they’re even on the clock.

Very true. But with Maye at the controls, they’re actually scoring touchdowns at a rate of 64 percent inside the red zone. If extrapolated over the breadth of the season, that would have them with the fourth-best red-zone percentage in the league.

The red zone is all about either A) grinding out goal-line scores with the running game, which the Patriots have done surprisingly effectively despite not finding much room to run between the 20s, and B) making the most of tight spaces in the passing game, either with players who can get open with quickness or win in contested situations.

The fact that the Patriots aren’t loaded with those types of playmakers and still have had some success in those situations should be encouraging. Interestingly, the Rams have the third-worst red-zone offense in football this year (47 percent), which could make a bend-but-don’t-break defensive plan an effective one for the Patriots.