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The NHL has delivered its fair share of surprises through the first quarter of the 2024-25 season. But now that we’ve seen that Lukas Dostal has emerged as a terrific goalie or that Martin Necas has hit his turbo-offense button, we can adjust our expectations and carry on.
The confusion comes when we can’t quite pin down what’s going on, or why. That can happen when outcomes don’t match our preconceived expectations, we see results that might be unsustainable, or a player or team is frustratingly inconsistent.
If you’re scratching your head over how things are going for these four squads, don’t worry. It’s their problem, not yours.
1. Nashville Predators
With their disastrous start after all those summer signings, the Predators had the inside track for the top spot on this list even before they vanquished the mighty Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night.
Yes, the Jets were playing a back-to-back set. But the fans in Smashville were treated to a fun night of hockey, featuring a 36-24 edge in shots, goals from both Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, and only one puck getting past Juuse Saros from the hottest offense in the league.
Even after Saturday’s game, Nashville is carrying a league-low shooting percentage of just 5.02 percent at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. That number suggests they’ve been dealing with some pretty brutal luck, so things should turn the corner eventually.
Also, the Predators tend to go from zeroes to heroes at the drop of a hat. Even before their run after the cancelled U2 concert in Vegas last season, they started that year at 5-10-0 before rattling off six wins in a row.
Even their best season, when they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2017, started with enough inconsistency that they were considered ‘confusing.’
So maybe it’s on us? Save yourself the worry and just expect the Preds to start slow, then find a way to figure it out.
2. Ottawa Senators
With new ownership, a new GM, a new coaching staff and a new starting goalie all onboarded over the last 14 months, the Ottawa Senators were pushing a narrative that things would be different this year.
And the underlying numbers suggest that they are. After tying for the fifth-highest goals against last season, the Senators have been among the stingiest defensive teams in the NHL this season in terms of shots allowed. At 52.59 percent, their expected goals rate at 5-on-5 is up there with the league leaders — even though they’re now in the midst of a 0-4-1 losing skid.
Even in that solid environment, Linus Ullmark hasn’t been delivering the big saves. He sits at minus-5.7 goals saved above expected per MoneyPuck.com. Perhaps even worse, the team seems to have let its history of poor performances in the month of November seep into its psyche.
After a fine 5-1-0 start on home ice, the Sens dropped to 5-5-1 after their 4-3 loss to the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday. And while they almost completed a comeback from 4-1, they also finished with a season-high 33 minutes in penalties and put up a messy, undisciplined third period.
Coach Travis Green and GM Steve Staios have asserted that things are different now. That may be the most confusing part of all.
3. Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks have dealt with their fair share of adversity at the top of their lineup this season. But what makes this team confusing is the stark contrast between its home and road records.
Last season, the fans at Rogers Arena cemented a reputation for being loud and engaged, helping make downtown Vancouver a tough place for other teams to play. The Canucks cruised to a record of 27-9-5 on home ice, one of just three teams with regulation losses in the single digits.
But this year, home cookin’ is not helping the Canucks. They just wrapped up a six-game homestand at 2-4-0, leaving them at 3-5-3 on the year at Rogers Arena. In terms of fan experience, those eight total losses loom a lot larger than the three wins.
Even more head-scratching — Rick Tocchet’s team has been great on the road. Even on Saturday, with J.T. Miller away on personal leave and Quinn Hughes assessed a boarding major and game misconduct midway through the first period, the Canucks weathered the adversity and delivered a character win and improved their road record to 7-1-0 for the year.
The Canucks have five more games to pick up points on this road trip before they’ll get another crack at delivering a winning product on home ice when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday, Dec. 6.
4. Calgary Flames
When the Calgary Flames were supposed to be contending a few years back, they sunk out of sight with barely a whimper.
But after dealing away starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom and decimating the defense, the Flames have ridden a four-game win streak to second place in the Pacific Division.
The key stat behind Calgary’s 12-6-3 record is the 5-on-5 team save percentage of .9425, which is tops in the league.
Listed at six-foot and 166 pounds, Dustin Wolf has seized the moment in net after winning two goalie-of-the-year awards at the AHL level. He’s now 8-2-1 with a .926 save percentage and 7.0 goals saved above expected. This season, Wolf has basically split the workload with Dan Vladar — and Vladar has been alright, at 4-4-2 and .903. But with just four goals allowed in his last four starts, Wolf is on fire, so to speak.
He should see the lion’s share of the action as long as this hot streak lasts, especially since the Flames are not exactly burning up the board offensively. Their leading scorer is a defenseman — Rasmus Andersson, with 13 points in 21 games. Their power play is clicking a ho-hum 18.3 percent and they’re averaging just 2.62 goals per game — a number that’s inflated by the 16 goals they scored over their first three contests at the beginning of the season.
Calgary has been picking up points by leaning on goaltending to win low-scoring games by narrow margins — and by playing right to the final buzzer. As hard as it’s been for them to score, four of their 12 wins have come off third-period comebacks.
Will they come back to earth, or are they building the kind of confidence that could start to turn the offensive tide as they head toward the midpoint of the year?
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