With a month of basketball played, Syracuse sits at 4-3, having lost every game away from the JMA Wireless Dome, and having just squeaked through the home games. The Orange entered Tuesday’s game against Tennessee as the biggest underdogs since Covers.com started tracking it in 2006, and still couldn’t cover, falling 96-70 as 22-point dogs.
SU has fallen to 105th in KenPom, and ranks 159th in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank without any preseason priors.
Pick-and-roll defense
For as much versatility as Lampkin can give Syracuse offensively, he gives much of it back on the defensive end. He’s not an imposing as a rim protector, and not athletic enough to switch or hedge properly. SU is trying to hedge with him, and it is, predictably, not going well.
They haven’t hedged every ball screen, but the Orange are currently the 359th-ranked ball screen defense in Division I, allowing 1.073 points per possession. Here’s a few examples of how Syracuse’s hedging has caused problems.
On possession number one of the game against Texas Tech, Lampkin hedges, but never comes close enough to Hawkins to disrupt his motion, and Carlos is also nowhere near the ball. JT Toppin easily finds his way to the top of the key, gets a quick pass, and nobody reacted, with every SU player just waiting for him to drive the ball. It’s a free paint touch for a player who averages 12.9 points in the paint per game. Lampkin isn’t athletic enough to recover, and it turns into two of the easiest points Toppin will get.
It’s not necessarily just Lampkin’s fault though, because it doesn’t seem like anybody on the floor can properly tag rollers.
If you are hedging a ball screen, you cannot let the ball handler get this far away from the hedge, because there is no protection against an easy paint touch. Carlos and Lampkin are not on the same page here, and it leads to a drive, kick, and easy layup. Also notice how much ball-watching the Orange do on this play, there’s a few players that get caught up in it, and are late to react.
Inability to get into the offense
I watched the beginning of every possession in the first half against Tennessee, and charted where Jaquan Carlos picked up his dribble when he was the one initiating half-court offense.
Zakai Zeigler is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, which absolutely plays a part in this, but Syracuse won’t get quality offense when the screener or player who is catching the first pass has to do so this far behind the arc.
Zeigler forces a pickup from Carlos just feet past the timeline, and Donnie Freeman is about 6 feet from the three-point arc when he catches the ball. Instead of running a tighter handoff and have a driving lane, Lucas Taylor has to pick up this ball further back than he likely wants to. Eventually, there’s not enough space on the wing for him and Carlos to work with, and Zeigler denies the ball, pokes it out, and starts the break.
There is more creativity in terms of sets and actions this season from Syracuse, but most of them lack depth, and when the Orange get knocked out of structure, the off-ball movement typically stops or happens way too slowly.
No two-way players
Who is Syracuse’s best defensive player? Think about that question for a moment. Does any answer satisfy you? Probably not.
According to EvanMiya.com’s Bayesian Performance Rating, Petar Majstorovic has been SU’s best defender this season, but he has also been the worst offensive player by that same metric. He has some solid defensive upside, but as of right now, he fouls way too much and doesn’t bring enough offensively to stay on the floor.
Second in that metric is actually Lampkin. According to Hoop-Explorer, Syracuse has been a solid deal better defensively with him on the floor, but as we’ve already explored, teams can exploit him in a variety of ways. SU opponents are shooting 61.8% at the rim with Lampkin on the floor, partially because of his lack of verticality when he’s in the paint, but also because of how often he isn’t in the paint.
Despite that ranking of second on the team, Lampkin is 69th in the ACC in DBPR (out of 160). Syracuse’s lineup malleability has not worked as planned this year, and with the guard rotation shortened sans Starling, it probably won’t get much better.
No, the 2-3 zone is not the answer defensively
I’ve seen countless suggestions between our comments, Twitter, and elsewhere about how Syracuse should switch back to the Boeheim-era 2-3 zone. Sure, that would change the defense, but it wouldn’t necessarily make it any better. There’s a reason why nobody in high-major basketball plays zone as its primary defense. Teams know how to beat it.
Against Tennessee, Syracuse went to zone on seven possessions, according to Synergy, and the Vols scored 14 points. SU went zone against Texas at the beginning of the game, and immediately dug a deep hole.
Every team should have a zone in their back pocket, but it’s not a “break glass in case of emergency” type deal, it should be used strategically to throw teams out of rhythm, or specifically in a certain gameplan.
A few good things before I go
- Elijah Moore is fearless. He’s a terrific shotmaker who can create advantages off the dribble. “Playing like a freshman” has helped him out, because sometimes, it feels like everybody else on the floor is thinking too much, while Moore just goes out there and scores. Although, I’d like to see him be more of a threat to pressure the rim. He’s only attempted one shot at the rim in the half-court all season.
- Jyare Davis isn’t having any trouble getting to the rim. He’s been SU’s top offensive player by OBPR, and is doing so by crashing the glass, getting to the line, and finishing through contact.
