When President Yoon Suk-yeol went live on South Korean TV Tuesday night, few expected him to impose martial law.
The last time a leader in Seoul did the same was nearly half a century ago, in 1979, amid several decades of authoritarian rule, which ended in 1987.
That era stretched from the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War, after which a series of dictatorial leaders occasionally proclaimed martial law to station the military on the country’s streets and quell anti-government protests.
Many South Koreans have vivid memories of this, as disturbing images of men in military gear and helicopters descending on the National Assembly in Seoul harked back to a time of military junta most in the country have no interest in returning to.
Ultimately, this sentiment prevailed: a unanimous 190-0 National Assembly vote to end martial law and a mere six hours later, the president rescinded his order by 4:30 am local time.
Why did Yoon Suk-yeol impose martial law?
In his TV address on Tuesday, Yoon blamed alleged pro-North Korean and anti-state forces for trying to destabilise the country. While he provided no evidence of specific Pyongyang’s meddling as part of his reasoning, he effectively pointed the finger at opposition parties who had been blocking his policies and even tried to impeach some of his appointees.
While it is true that the opposition-dominated parliament, in place since April this year, had repeatedly blocked many of the president’s proposed policies, the drastic action of imposing martial law still took many by surprise.
It even seemed to be news to the leader of Yoon’s own conservative People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, who reacted by saying the president’s decision was “wrong” and that he would “stop it with the people”.
Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of the centrist-liberal Democratic Party called the announcement “illegal and unconstitutional”.
Myunghee Lee, an assistant professor of international relations at Michigan State University, says that Yoon “has become increasingly frustrated by both divisions in his own party and moves by the opposition in the National Assembly to block key parts of his agenda.”
He also faced a number of influence-peddling scandals, including one involving his wife allegedly accepting a Dior bag from a pastor.
Yoon, whose approval rating was a lowly 20%, was already facing calls for impeachment before this incident, and was “in an incredibly weak position,” Lee added.
Nevertheless, what actually drove him and his plotters to make the political calculation that such a move would benefit him is a “real puzzle”, according to Lee.
“For many, it is regarded as a foolish move – he was in such a position politically,” he said.
South Korea’s foreign policy under Yoon
During its time in power, Yoon’s government sought to strengthen ties with Washington, a policy that has generally been popular with the South Korean public.
Significantly less popular, however, is his attempt to improve relations with Japan on several levels, including through intelligence-sharing and military exercises. Such moves continue to be somewhat taboo in the country due to its traumatic past under Japanese colonial rule.
When it comes to North Korea, as is evident from his proclamations on Tuesday, Yoon has adopted a more hawkish stance than his predecessor. Ex-president Moon Jae-in sought to engage with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un, while the incumbent government has all but ended such initiatives.
Regarding the neighbouring global powerhouse China, Yoon has attempted to follow a pragmatic path, saying he does not feel that South Korea needs to choose between China and the US.
Alexander Lipke, Asia Programme coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that this week’s turmoil in South Korea is bad news for Europe: “Occupied with its domestic political crisis, South Korea will have limited resources to focus on foreign issues, with any increase in support for Ukraine now much less likely.
Combined with the ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, “this will also strain South Korea-Japan ties and make trilateral cooperation with the US more difficult, potentially leading to more instability in the region, emboldening Russia, China and North Korea,” he adds.
What happens next?
Impeachment appears to be the most likely option, given the almost unanimous condemnation of Yoon’s actions, even within his own party.
The president’s senior advisers, secretaries, and certain Cabinet members, including Defence Minister Kim Hyun-jong, have offered to resign collectively.
None of this bodes well for Yoon’s future in office.
Six opposition parties submitted a motion on Wednesday morning to impeach the president, which would require the support of two-thirds of the parliament and the backing of at least six of the country’s Constutitional Court judges.
Speaker of the Assembly Woo Won-sik is set to open a session for the motion to be debated, which could happen as early as Friday or Saturday. A vote has to take place within three days of the impeachment proposal.
The last time martial law was imposed in the country – in 1979 – it had followed the assassination of former military dictator Park Chung-hee.
In a deeply ironic twist, Yoon Suk-yeol led a corruption case against Park’s daughter, who was South Korean president until her impeachment for abuse of power in 2016.
