The bettors have spoken. In two weeks, the bettors might be speechless.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen continues to be the overwhelming favorite to win the NFL MVP award. At DraftKings, for instance, he’s -550. The next closest candidate is Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, at +400.
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is now 12-1, or +1200. Lions quarterback Jared Goff is 20-1. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold are +7000.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is +7500.
Despite the odds, an easy argument can be made for Lamar’s third MVP award, and second in a row. He has 37 touchdown passes and four interceptions. He leads all qualifying quarterbacks with a passer rating of 120.6.
And Barkley has a realistic shot at breaking Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old single-season rushing record. Twelve years ago, Adrian Peterson came close to doing so, and it was enough to eke out the MVP over Peyton Manning, who had a stellar first season with the Broncos.
The reality is that the odds mean nothing. Once the season is over — and once the playoff seeds are locked — the candidates tend to become more clear. And it ultimately comes down to the 50 media members who vote on the various Associated Press awards.
Also, unlike 2012, when each voter had one and only one vote, the current process has the voters submit a five-person ballot. If Lamar is first or second on enough ballots, and if Allen gets a smattering of, say, first- and second- and third-place votes, Lamar could end up with more total points.
If the Chiefs secure the top seed in the AFC (their magic number is one), some voters could opt to regard Mahomes as the MVP. Does anyone think the Chiefs would have had a chance to even win their division without one of the greatest players in NFL history running the offense?
For Jackson, it will help to win the division. Since Peterson in 2012, no player from a wild-card team has won it. In fact, every MVP since 2013 has been a quarterback from a team that earned a bye.
That’s been true even with only one bye per conference. Which would make the quarterback of the top seeds in the AFC and NFC the presumptive favorites, based on the 11-year voting trend.
Which opens the door for Goff and Darnold, depending on whether the Lions or Vikings emerge with the top seed in the NFC. For both teams, the path is clear. Win in Week 17 and Week 18, and win the top seed and the bye.
The point, for now, is this: There’s still a lot of football to be played. Jackson had a much better game in Week 16 than Allen. How the various high-end teams perform in the final two weeks will matter.
Thus, while Allen might be the betting favorite, no one knows what will happen until the voters submit their ballots in the days after the regular-season ends. It’s hard enough to predict the outcomes of games. It’s even harder to predict how 50 people will vote when the time comes to do so.
So, basically, ignore the odds. It could be Allen. It could be Jackson. It could be Barkley. It could be Mahomes. It could be Goff or Darnold. It could be Barkley.
It could even be Burrow, if the Bengals manage to make it to the playoffs.
