Now comes the fun part.
Arizona has navigated one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country, though it didn’t fare too well with a 6-5 record that is tied for the worst of any team in its conference. But this isn’t the old Pac-12 that the Wildcats are about to embark on, this is the Big 12.
Currently rated by KenPom.com as the third-best league in Division I, the Big 12 currently has five teams in the latest Associated Top 25 and eight projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Arizona isn’t among either list, but at No. 24 in KenPom and No. 26 in the latest NET rankings it is still very much alive to make the postseason.
And thanks to the strength of the Big 12, the UA will have no shortage of opportunities to improve its resume. Currently 0-5 against Quad 1 opponents, as of now 12 of 20 league games will be Q1 opportunities and only two fall below Q2.
And while the Wildcats’ mark against top-100 KenPom teams (0-5) stands out, the Big 12 as a whole hasn’t exactly dominated in those games. Collectively they’re 26-41 against top-100 opponents, including 15-27 against the top 50, and together they’re 5-12 in true road games with five schools yet to play on another team’s court.
The Big 12 has only one loss to a sub-100 KP team, that being Kansas State’s defeat at No. 105 Wichita State last weekend.
League play begins Monday with four games, including Arizona hosting TCU. Ahead of that, here is a breakdown of all 16 Big 12 schools.
1. Houston Cougars
- Record: 8-3
- KenPom ranking: 4th
- Best wins: No. 68 Butler, No. 86 Notre Dame
- Worst loss: No. 36 San Diego State
- Projected Big 12 record: 15-5
After starting last season 14-0, Houston didn’t make it out of the first week before losing, albeit it was to KenPom No. 1 Auburn. Their other losses, to Alabama and San Diego State, came at the new Players Era Festival tourney in Las Vegas that is built entirely around NIL.
The Cougars are once again playing a swarming defense, one that allows 55.3 points per game on a Division I-worst 34.1 percent shooting. Combine that with a snail-like pace of 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes and it’s very hard to score against the Coogs.
Offensively, senior guards LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are each averaging 14 points per game and spearhead a team that’s shooting 41.5 percent from 3.
When they play Arizona: Feb. 15 (Tucson)
2. Iowa State Cyclones
- Record: 10-1
- KenPom ranking: 5th
- Best wins: No. 10 Marquette, 32 Dayton
- Worst loss: No. 1 Auburn
- Projected Big 12 record: 15-5
Iowa State has been notorious in recent years for playing a super easy pre-Big 12 schedule, but this time around it had some real challenges. The Cyclones’ only loss came in the Maui Invitational where they blew an 18-point second-half lead to Auburn, but a week later their victory over Marquette in the Big East/Big 12 Challenge (which Arizona wasn’t included in as a first-year Big 12 member) helped balance things out.
The Cyclones are 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking in the top 10 nationally in scoring (88.5 points per game) and shooting (51.3 percent). Six players are averaging double figures including guard Curtis Jones, who is scoring 16 per game despite only starting once.
Iowa State’s defense is also very strong, mostly because it forced 16 turnovers and nearly 10 steals per game.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 27 (Tucson), March 1 (Ames)
3. Kansas Jayhawks
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 8th
- Best wins: No. 2 Duke, No. 16 Michigan State
- Worst loss: No. 52 Creighton
- Projected Big 12 record: 13-7
The preseason pick to win the Big 12, Kansas has played the most top-100 KenPom teams among Big 12 schools, winning four of them. The Jayhawks have faced only one sun-200 opponent and have four top-100 wins, but in back-to-back road games at Creighton and Missouri they had their worst offensive performances of the season and among the worst on the defensive end, which doesn’t bode well for a league full of tough places to play.
Big man Hunter Dickinson ranks 4th in KenPom’s Player of the Year (kPOY) standings, leading the Big 12 in rebounding (10.3) and scoring 15.5 per game. The Jayhawks shoot nearly 50 percent and get more than 60 percent of their points from inside the arc.
Kansas’ defense is top 10 nationally, giving up 66 points per game on 38.6 percent shooting. Opponents shoot only 44.3 percent inside the arc as the Jayhawks block one in seven shots.
When they play Arizona: March 8 (Lawrence)
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 13th
- Best wins: No. 102 DePaul, No. 108 Syracuse
- Worst loss: No. 87 Saint Joseph’s
- Projected Big 12 record: 13-7
A very soft nonconference schedule saw Texas Tech play nine sub-100 teams, most of any Big 12 school. That led to seven wins by at least 20 points and some heavily padded numbers, as well as a 5-point loss to former rival Texas A&M in its most high-profile game. The Red Raiders did not play a true road game in nonconference play.
Texas Tech is shooting 51.7 percent, third-best in the country, and is 11th on 3-pointers at 40.4 percent, with senior guard Chance McMillan hitting 53.4 percent of his 3s. Sophomore forward JT Toppin is averaging 18.6 points and 11 rebounds but has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, while junior wing Darrion Williams averages 16.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists.
The Red Raiders are holding opponents under 40 percent from the field and force a turnover on more than 20 percent of possessions. They’ve only faced two top-100 offenses, though.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 18 (Lubbock), Feb. 8 (Tucson)
5. Baylor Bears
- Record: 7-3
- KenPom ranking: 18th
- Best wins: No. 12 St. John’s, No. 42 Arkansas
- Worst loss: No. 15 UConn
- Projected Big 12 record: 12-8
It’s a pretty tough slate if you lose three times and the worst loss was to the two-time defending national champions. Baylor has played the most difficult nonconference slate of any Big 12 school, though it will fall behind Kansas after Friday’s game against non-Division I Arlington Baptist is factored in, but that doesn’t change the fact the Bears tested themselves with five non-home games including trips to Gonzaga and UConn.
Baylor is the most unbalanced team in the conference from an offensive standpoint, ranking 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but 83rd in defensive efficiency. The former is the result of five players scoring in double figures including freshmen guards VJ Edgecombe and Robert Wright and Duke transfer Jeremy Roach.
The Bears’ defense, on the other hand, has been lacking. Opponents are shooting 46 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from 3-point range. If not for the fact they force a turnover 22 percent of the time they’d almost never get a stop on defense.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 14 (Tucson), Feb. 17 (Waco)
6. Cincinnati Bearcats
- Record: 10-1
- KenPom ranking: 21st
- Best wins: No. 32 Dayton, No. 57 Xavier
- Worst loss: No. 54 Villanova
- Projected Big 12 record: 12-8
Cincinnati played more true road games in nonconference play than any other Big 12 team, but trips to Northern Kentucky and Georgia Tech weren’t exactly competitive. The Bearcats’ loss at Villanova was to a team that was 4-4 at the time, but they made up for it by beating both crosstown rival Xavier and mid-major power Dayton.
There’s nothing flashy about Cincinnati’s offense, which is top 50 in shooting (48.7 percent) and averages just under 80 points per game. One thing the Bearcats don’t do is get to the line, averaging fewer than 16 foul shots per game and shooting a paltry 65.3 percent from the stripe. Junior forward Dillon Mitchell is their best all-around player, averaging 11.4 and 7.5 while leading the Big 12 in shooting at 69.5 percent.
Cincinnati’s defensive is fifth nationally in efficiency, allowing 37.5 percent shooting and only 27.5 percent from 3. Villanova is the only opponent to make at least eight 3s against the Bearcats.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 4 (Cincinnati)
7. Arizona Wildcats
- Record: 6-5
- KenPom ranking: 24th
- Best wins: No. 111 Davidson, No. 121 Samford
- Worst loss: No. 48 West Virginia
- Projected Big 12 record: 11-9
Arizona has put together a resume that could best be described as the printed version of the Larry David shrugging meme. The Wildcats don’t have any bad losses, with all five defeats coming to top 50 teams, but they also haven’t beaten anyone of significance. Samford is probably the only NCAA Tournament team they’ve knocked off, and that’s not saying much.
The UA is 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, which isn’t terrible, but it is on pace to be the worst since 2019-20 and ranks 7th among Big 12 schools. The perimeter shooting has been pretty bad all year and the inside game of recent years hasn’t been there, but it is getting to the line more than any previous Tommy Lloyd team. The offensive rebounding has also been tremendous.
Those offensive issues have taken away from a defense that, despite some online perception, has been pretty solid. Opponents are shooting 39.1 percent overall and less than 44 percent on 2-pointers. The 3-point defense isn’t that bad, actually, and Arizona is forcing turnovers on more than 20 percent of opponent possessions.
8. BYU Cougars
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 41st
- Best wins: No. 85 North Carolina State, No. 165 Wyoming
- Worst loss: No. 77 Providence
- Projected Big 12 record: 10-10
Earlier this month BYU landed a commitment from Class of 2025 No. 1 prospect AJ Dybasanta, which reportedly cost $5 million in NIL to secure. That’s about the most noteworthy thing the Cougars accomplished during nonconference play, because they didn’t really face much competition on the court, with eight games at home (or in Salt Lake City) and six against sub-200 opponents.
BYU is one of the best 2-point shooting teams in the country, making 59.5 percent of those shots, and its top six scorers all shooting better than 50 percent from inside the arc. The Cougars’ top performer has been freshman guard Egor Demin, who is averaging 13.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists, though a knee injury has sidelined him the past three weeks.
The Cougars’ defense has been solid if not spectacular, but one thing they do really well is protect the glass. Opponents only collect 17.2 percent of their misses, fewest in Division I.
When they play Arizona: Feb. 4 (Provo), Feb. 22 (Tucson)
9. West Virginia Mountaineers
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 48th
- Best wins: No. 6 Gonzaga, No. 24 Arizona
- Worst loss: No. 50 Louisville
- Projected Big 12 record: 9-11
Arizona has already seen West Virginia, losing to the Mountaineers in overtime in the 3rd-place game at the Battle4Atlantis. That was the peak of their season, which also included an upset of Gonzaga, and since then they’ve beaten a better-than-expected Georgetown as well as three walkover opponents.
The last three games have been without senior wing Tucker DeVries, who torched Arizona from outside and is hitting 47.3 percent from 3. DeVries has an upper body injury that has him out “indefinitely,” which based on the UA’s luck means coming back in time for their Big 12 meeting in early January, but even if he’s out there’s still senior guard Javon Small and his conference-leading 19.7 points per game.
West Virginia is one of the top foul shooting teams in the country but doesn’t take many, while on defense it is 7th with an opponent field goal percentage of 37.3.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 7 (Morgantown)
10. ASU Sun Devils
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 59th
- Best wins: No. 45 Saint Mary’s, No. 67 New Mexico
- Worst loss: No. 7 Florida
- Projected Big 12 record: 8-12
ASU took a big risk with its nonconference schedule, playing only four games at home and facing a bunch of dangerous mid-majors, but now it looks like the Sun Devils will be much better for those tests. They were leading in the second half at Gonzaga and the Florida game was the only one they didn’t have a chance to win.
Though still not particularly crisp, this ASU offense might be the best Bobby Hurley has had because it’s less inclined to freelance. There are five players scoring in double figures led by one-time Arizona commit Joson Sanon, who mostly comes off the bench and is shooting 50.9 percent from 3.
Freshman big man Jayden Quaintance nearly averages a double-double and leads the Big 12 with 3.5 blocks per game, spearheading a defense is more interested in forcing bad shots than trying to take the ball away. No opponent has turned it over more than 14 times in a game.
When they play Arizona: Feb. 1 (Tempe), March 4 (Tucson)
11. Utah Utes
- Record: 8-3
- KenPom ranking: 63rd
- Best wins: No. 197 Radford, No.257 Eastern Washington
- Worst loss: No. 45 Saint Mary’s
- Projected Big 12 record: 8-12
Think Arizona’s nonconference performance was disappointing? Utah would like a word. The Utes faced three teams in the top 180 of KenPom and lost to them, though each was by less than 10 points; the other eight games were to teams who aren’t expected to finish in the top half of bad conferences.
Because of that slate, the Utes have piled up some lofty offensive numbers like 86.7 points per game, 48.9 percent shooting and 37.9 percent from 3. Senior guard Gabe Madsen is averaging 18.8 per game and hitting nearly 40 percent of his 3s, while senior center Lawson Lovering has more than doubled his production from a year ago since missing the first five games with an ankle injury. Throw in the nations top assist rate (69 percent) and the Utes are efficient with the ball.
Lovering is also part of a big frontcourt—Utah is 11th in the country in average height—that is holding opponents to 43 percent on 2-point shots. And despite a fast overall pace it has only allowed more than a point per possession four times.
When they play Arizona: Feb. 26 (Tucson)
12. Colorado Buffaloes
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 76th
- Best wins: No. 15 UConn, No. 96 Colorado State
- Worst loss: No. 16 Michigan State
- Projected Big 12 record: 7-13
Colorado’s three toughest games came at the Maui Invitational, where it went 1-2 but that included an upset of UConn before a blowout loss to Iowa State. Other than that the Buffaloes stayed in Boulder, with the most competitive games coming against in-state competition rather than from the five sub-200 foes.
The Buffaloes have the second-worst offense in the Big 12 from an efficiency standpoint but they shoot okay and pass it very well. It’s turnovers that have been the issue, with more than 14 per game, including 2.4 per game from leading scorer Julian Hammond. Hammond makes up for it by shooting 42.9 percent from 3 and 93.1 percent from the line.
Colorado’s defense rebounds well and doesn’t give up a lot of free throws but it can’t force turnovers well.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 25 (Tucson)
13. UCF Knights
- Record: 9-2
- KenPom ranking: 75th
- Best wins: No. 20 Texas A&M, No. 91 Florida Atlantic
- Worst loss: No. 60 LSU
- Projected Big 12 record: 7-13
UCF started off the season with a bang, upsetting a ranked Texas A&M team at home on opening night. The Golden Knights are 8-0 on their own court this season and last year beat Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in Orlando while going 2-8 on the road, feeling both sides of them being so far away from all other Big 12 schools.
The Knights have three of the highest-scoring players in the conference in guards Jordan Ivy-Curry (16.3), Keyshawn Hall (15.2) and Darius Johnson (14.7). It’s a major dropoff after that point, through the frontcourt offensive rebounds well and UCF shoots better than 77 percent from the line.
On defense, nothing about UCF’s game stands out either positively or negatively. A low number of defensive rebounds is problematic, though.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 11 (Tucson)
14. TCU Horned Frogs
- Record: 7-4
- KenPom ranking: 74th
- Best wins: No. 57 Xavier, No. 120 Texas State
- Worst loss: No. 73 Santa Clara, No. 96 Colorado State
- Projected Big 12 record: 7-13
TCU has had the kind of nonconference you’d expect from a team that was picked to finish in the bottom half of a strong league, with no particularly great wins but also no terrible losses. The Horned Frogs are 7-0 at home and winless everywhere else, including dropping two in two days in Palm Springs over Thanksgiving.
Leading scorer Frankie Collins, a senior guard who was at ASU the previous two seasons, is out for the year after breaking his foot earlier in December. He was also leading in assists for an offense that had shown balance with six players averaging between 9.1 and 11.2 points per game.
The Horned Frogs are ranked 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are pretty solid across the board on defense. Their best attribute is holding opponents to just 28 percent 3-point shooting.
When they play Arizona: Dec. 30 (Tucson)
15. Kansas State Wildcats
- Record: 6-5
- KenPom ranking: 90th
- Best wins: No. 132 George Washington, No. 166 Longwood
- Worst loss: No. 105 Wichita State
- Projected Big 12 record: 6-14
These are the Wildcats that have been the biggest disappointment among Big 12 schools, not Arizona. Though only picked to finish eighth, K-State invested a lot in its roster from the portal but that so far has produced zero good wins and has resulted in a 3-game skid entering conference play.
Villanova transfer guard Brendan Hausen and fifth-year senior forward David N’Guessan have been the most consistent players, but fellow transfers Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins have underachived and Achor Achor was dismissed from the team. The Wildcats have to shoot well to do well since they don’t draw fouls and make only 66 percent from the line.
Free throw defense isn’t a thing, but K-State has had really terrible luck in this area. Opponents are making 78 percent of their foul shots, among the highest rates in the country. It is well below average in field goal defense, giving up 34.7 percent from 3.
When they play Arizona: Feb. 11 (Manhattan)
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Record: 8-3
- KenPom ranking: 104th
- Best wins: No. 107 Miami, Fla., No. 124 St. Thomas
- Worst loss: No. 91 Florida Atlantic
- Projected Big 12 record: 5-15
Someone has to finish at the bottom of a really good conference, and it looks like that will be the Cowboys once again. First-year coach Steve Lutz has his team off to a better start than a year ago when it went 12-20, but that’s not saying much based on who it has beaten.
Oklahoma State is the only team in the Big 12 with an offense and defense ranked outside the top 100. With the ball the Cowboys rebound well and draw a lot of fouls but there’s no go-to scorer, as evidenced by senior forward Marchellus Avery leading the team in scoring despite not starting.
Defensively, OK State is in the bottom 50 nationally in defending both the 2 and the 3 but minimizes second shots and forces quite a few turnovers.
When they play Arizona: Jan. 21 (Stillwater)
