US stock futures took a step back on Wednesday as investors braced for a crucial consumer inflation report and weighed up the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell roughly 0.3%, on the heels of a winning day for both. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped about 0.4%, setting the blue-chip index up for a second day of losses.
Investors are looking to August’s consumer price index to lift the uncertainty around the size of the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut in years. After a mixed monthly jobs report, the price data could settle the debate over whether to expect a 0.5% or 0.25% easing in the Fed’s policy decision next week.
Read more: Fed predictions for 2024: What experts say about the possibility of a rate cut
As of early Wednesday, the odds of the Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points versus 25 basis were split 30%-70%, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Stocks have seesawed as the market juggled between hoping for a deeper rate cut and fearing what that could imply about potential recession. A cooler print would give policymakers more scope to act aggressively, but could also be a sign the economy is slowing faster than calculated.
The CPI report, due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.5% in August, a deceleration from July’s 2.9% annual rate. The rate is expected to be 0.2% month-on-month.
Meanwhile, investors were assessing Tuesday night’s Trump-Harris presidential debate for insight into the nominees’ plans for the economy. Their exchanges were seen as light on detail on issues that could sway markets, such as tariffs, taxes, and regulation.
Crypto-linked stocks fell in pre-market trading as bets on a Harris election win for the Democrats climbed following the debate. Leading token bitcoin (BTC-USD) also dipped in light of her Republican rival’s pro-crypto stance.
Elsewhere, GameStop (GME) shares sank 10% after the video games retailer posted a quarterly revenue miss and revealed it plans to issue 20 million new shares.
