Preparation is key to success in fantasy basketball. I gathered industry experts for a 12-team, head-to-head nine-category mock draft to get a peak into current trends, player values, and the nuances of drafting across key statistical categories. Let’s dive in and a special thank you to everyone who participated.
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The results of the mock draft can be found here.
The Fantastic Four and everyone else
The top-four picks in category league drafts have been consistent all offseason. That was no difference here, as Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokić were the top two options, followed by Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The draft gets really interesting once the consensus top four is gone. It’s all a matter of preference and risk appetite. On a per-game basis, Joel Embiid is a top-three guy, but knowing that his name is synonymous with missing games, I understand the slide to eighth.
Calling of the guard(s)
The backend of the first round started a considerable trend where guards flew off the board. Sixty-seven percent of the picks in the second round were point guards — meaning that the players who generally carry high usage rates and cross-categorical production in points, assists, 3s, free-throw percentage and steals are pretty concentrated in the early rounds.
Of course, you can punt assists, but I don’t recommend it; select a high-end guard by Round 4 because the drop-off is real.
Going back to the big men for a minute, after Embiid was drafted eighth overall, only four players (Chet Holmgren, Domantas Sabonis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Karl-Anthony Towns) with center eligibility were selected from picks 9 through 36. Sabonis’ passing ability can’t be understated, so falling to 2.10 was a major steal this draft, considering he’s a threat to lead the league in double-doubles.
Big tree(s) fall hard
Rounds 4 and 5 were big-man-centric, with 14 of the 24 picks across those two rounds being players with PF or C eligibility. A common draft strategy is grabbing the guards early and saving the mid-rounds to secure rebounding, blocks and FG%. That’s what was done here.
Seeing Immanuel Quickley go in the fourth round hurt my soul because he was going at least a round later in most drafts I’ve participated in — no more discounts, y’all. Similarly, as an Isaiah Hartenstein truther, seeing him go in the fifth round was a considerable leap from his ADP, which currently sits at 82.1 over the past seven days in Yahoo Fantasy drafts.
Get your guys + mispriced vets
When we reached the midpoint of the draft in Round 6, you started to see a mix of fantasy managers getting their guys and value falling. Cam Thomas, Alex Caruso and Chris Paul went higher than anticipated in the sixth and seventh rounds, respectively.
On the flip side, Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell and Josh Giddey look like value picks relative to where I have them projected to finish this season.
If you’re punting rebounds and blocks, Round 9 is the cutoff point to select a decent big man. Jonas Valančiūnas, Jusuf Nurkić, Clint Capela, and Ivica Zubac all left the board before Round 10.
Late-round breakouts
Quite a few of my breakouts are going around this territory — Jonathan Kuminga, Onyeka Okongwu and Amen Thompson. Underrated picks beyond Round 10 were Collin Sexton, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dyson Daniels and Keyonte George. There’s also considerable veteran depth going in the later rounds, like Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Norman Powell — all guys who will be impactful players for their respective squads this season.
Final thoughts
All in all, it was a fun draft. As the guy who left dissatisfied with his squad after drafting from the 12-spot, should you try to stick to your plan or pivot if necessary? The run on high-assist guards and waiting to strike on big men in the early-to-mid rounds will vary each draft, so be agile and willing to adapt if you’re striving for balance or potentially punting based on how the draft falls to you.
