Bryce Young‘s NFL story isn’t written yet.
It’s hard to keep that in perspective after Young was benched just two games into his second season. An awful Carolina Panthers team decided they’d rather try out 36-year-old Andy Dalton than see if Young could develop. But it could come around for Young, in Carolina or elsewhere. Baker Mayfield is a pretty good example of a former first overall pick who was given up on, seemed to be finished and ended up reviving his career all before the age of 30.
It just seems bleak now. Young has not played at a starting level for an NFL quarterback. This past offseason the Panthers spent a lot of money and resources to upgrade the offense around him and hired an offensive-minded head coach, yet Young’s play didn’t get any better. Suddenly the question has to be asked: At this point, is Young the worst first overall pick in NFL history?
For a fair comparison, let’s compare Young to the other No. 1 picks in the common draft era, which dates back to 1967. In 1959, the Green Bay Packers drafted Iowa quarterback Randy Duncan first overall, but Duncan’s father and Iowa coach Forest Evashevski didn’t want Duncan playing pro football, via Packers.com. He went to the Canadian Football League for more money, ended up in the NFL as a backup for two seasons later on and eventually went to law school. That seems like ancient history. We’re not comparing Young to some of those picks.
Here are the group of five first overall picks that can reasonably be argued as the worst top pick ever.
Injuries got Steve Emtman and Ki-Jana Carter
It seems unfair to have Emtman and Carter on a list like this, because they were great college players who were set way back in the NFL due to bad injury luck. Carter, a fantastic running back at Penn State, blew out his knee in the Cincinnati Bengals‘ first preseason game after he was drafted on the hard Pontiac Silverdome turf. Carter did end up playing seven NFL seasons but never topped 464 yards in a season. He ended up with 1,144 yards in 59 games.
Emtman was a great defensive tackle at the University of Washington, but in his second NFL season he blew out his ACL, MCL and patellar tendon. He was never the same after that.
Emtman ended up with 19 career starts, third-fewest among No. 1 picks in the common draft era. Carter had 14, which is the fewest. Young slides between them at 18, but he can change that. Carter and Emtman are sad stories about what might have been, and it doesn’t seem right to lump them in with Young.
Aundray Bruce never lived up to expectations
In the 1988 NFL Draft the Atlanta Falcons needed defense and reached on athletic Auburn outside linebacker Bruce, who was a good but not great college player. He was a starter his first two seasons and had a reasonable six sacks each year, but then became a backup. He did play 11 NFL seasons but over his final nine seasons he started just 11 games. He had the athletic talent — the Falcons briefly tried him at tight end in 1991 and he had one catch for 11 yards — but the production lagged. He had 32 sacks in 11 seasons. The No. 2 pick in that draft, Neil Smith, retired with 104.5 career sacks. Bruce has to be on this list, but he still doesn’t seem to reach Young’s level.
Tim Couch was in a bad situation
Maybe Couch is a good comparison for Young. Couch was the quarterback for the expansion Cleveland Browns, and the 2023 Panthers weren’t much better than an expansion team. Couch was an unbelievable high school player, very good at Kentucky, and didn’t do much in a bad situation in Cleveland. Couch did help lead the Browns to the playoffs in 2002, but he missed the playoff game because he broke his leg in the season finale. Couch finished a five-year career with 64 touchdowns, 67 interceptions and a completion percentage below 60%. He was an inconsistent player, but battled injuries through his career and was on a terrible team. And, he still produced more than Young has.
Challenging JaMarcus Russell for top billing
Russell is the consensus pick as the worst first overall pick ever. The late Raiders owner Al Davis fell in love with Russell’s size and his huge arm, and even though everyone around him at the time says now that they tried to talk Davis out of picking Russell, he did it anyway. Russell lasted just three NFL seasons. Let’s compare Russell’s stats to Young …
Russell (31 games): 52.1% completion percentage, 4,083 yards, 18 TD, 23 INT, 65.2 passer rating
Young (18 games): 59.3% completion percentage, 3,122 yards, 11 TD, 13 INT, 70.9 passer rating
In Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric, Young and Russell are tied for the lowest score among all No. 1 overall picks at six each. Ki-Jana Carter was 12. Steve Emtman was 14. Travon Walker hasn’t been great, but in his third season he’s at 14.
It’s hard to argue Young is worse than Russell. The one thing working against Young is what the Panthers gave up to get him. They made a massive trade, sending receiver D.J. Moore and picks that ended up being defensive tackle Jalen Carter, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and quarterback Caleb Williams to get the first pick. Then they drafted Young over instant superstar C.J. Stroud. But in 2008 the Raiders passed up on Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas, Hall of Famers who were taken with the second and third picks.
Russell is the worst first pick ever. His lack of professionalism and issues off the field get added onto his poor production. It’s hard to imagine another first pick being worse in the foreseeable future.
Young is still in the conversation though. He just hasn’t played well enough. The good news for him is he’s still just 23 years old. There’s plenty of time for him to change the story.
