It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson has been the league’s most inaccurate quarterback to open the season, highlighted by a truly awful passing performance last week. It hasn’t been a decision-making problem, as Richardson just keeps missing open receivers. Still, he was tackled inside the three-yard line on two separate drives last week, so he was a few feet away from much different fantasy production.
Another somewhat concerning issue is Richardson not having a high scramble rate when pressured. Shane Steichen gave Richardson by far the league’s highest rate of designed runs in the red zone last season, so we need to see more of that in 2024. Unfortunately, Richardson gets a Steelers defense this week, allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Before we panic too much, it’s important to remember last week marked Richardson’s 20th start since high school. He’s the youngest QB in the league who also has 2024’s best throw of the season. AR ranks first in air yards, first in money throws and third in danger throws. Only Josh Allen has a higher hero throw rate. Richardson has gotten 8.0 YPA (eighth best) despite the ghastly completion percentage, and he’s also suffered from the league’s second-highest drop rate. The combination of rushing and consistently throwing deep (in a good scheme, to good receivers!) presents huge fantasy potential, currently ranked sixth in expected fantasy points.
Anthony Richardson can complete passes that 99% of NFL QBs cannot complete
Anthony Richardson cannot complete passes that 99% of NFL QBs can complete
It’s the most aggravating thing. #Colts
— Hunter Haas (@Haas_Football) September 22, 2024
Moreover, despite having the league’s fastest pace, the Colts are averaging 25.7 fewer offensive plays than their opponents – the equivalent of 4.4 possessions per game. Obviously some of that is self-inflicted (bad run defense, offense not sustaining drives), but that much of a wide discrepancy is likely to regress.
Richardson is a bench candidate versus Pittsburgh this week, but few (if any) QBs can match his upside, so remain patient; he currently ranks back-to-back with Patrick Mahomes in fantasy scoring after last week’s dud (that almost had two rushing TDs).
The Richardson experience will be a rollercoaster.
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Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk was a top-30 pick in Yahoo leagues, but he’s been outscored by Tutu Atwell and Ray-Ray McCloud through three weeks. Aiyuk has already matched his number of drops (two) this season compared to last. He was especially disappointing last week, when he took a backseat to Jauan Jennings with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out in a highly favorable matchup. Aiyuk saw 10 targets, and Brock Purdy missed him wide open for a 50+ yard touchdown. Aiyuk also finished with the top separation win rate of any game this season last week.
Aiyuk wasn’t in full game shape and has been clearly out of sync with Purdy after missing so much practice; he didn’t sign his contract until just before the start of the season. It’s annoying Aiyuk hasn’t produced, but he’s 26 years old and just recorded the most yards in NFL history on fewer than 110 targets last season. Aiyuk was also top five in fantasy points per route run, and he remains in a terrific situation.
Purdy has been fantastic this season, and he’s throwing deeper and targeting his wide receivers more than ever with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. The 49ers are allowing the third-most yards per play and just lost Javon Hargrave. Jordan Mason has already set a career high in NFL carries and never reached 175 in college, while CMC’s timeline looks increasingly bleak. All signs point to San Francisco passing far more this season, and Samuel and Kittle are already injured.
Aiyuk is a buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews returns to the panic meter after running just four routes last week. Isaiah Likely saw 14 more snaps than Andrews, while Charlie Kolar saw just four fewer. Game script played a role, as Lamar Jackson attempted just 15 passes. Still, Andrews is now averaging just 3.3 fantasy points this season, whether it’s because of the TightRope surgery, an offseason car crash, age or a new role in the offense.
While fantasy managers’ panic level deserves to be high, tight end production is down significantly across the league. Moreover, Buffalo has allowed a league high 34 catches to the slot this season (and just 15 to outside WRs), and Andrews leads all tight ends in slot snaps this year (Taron Johnson remains out). It also feels like a fluke he’s yet to see a red-zone target after leading all pass catchers in RZ target% last season.
Andrews is going to be a bust compared to ADP, but he remains the TE8 in expert consensus ranks this week given the matchup and alternatives.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy ranks 70th in targets (11), 65th in target rate (15.9%) and 66th in routes run (44) this season. This despite Marquise Brown being out, Travis Kelce not producing and Isiah Pacheco recently sidelined. The rookie is the fastest player in the league, but Patrick Mahomes ranks 31st in air yards per attempt (5.1) this season. Kansas City’s pass rate has also dropped down to 53%, and Rashee Rice has emerged as a true alpha.
Worthy remains a big play threat and will improve the more he plays in the league, but he’s too risky to be used in fantasy lineups while earning so few targets. He’s the classic “better in best ball” player right now. Panic level is high.
