I get completely caught up in watching artists create spin paintings.
For the purists out there, I realize it’s “real” art. I grew up watching Bob Ross (the man’s afro was immaculate), so I’ve watched images of a mountain created from an idea countless times. Regardless, the processes and results remind me of football.
Both require bursts of chaos to generate something we find inspiring afterward. At the moment, we’re all guessing how things will end. Data or vibes can point us in the right direction, but the outcomes are out of our hands. It’s part of why we watch. However, let’s walk through five of the top storylines from Week 4 and pull what nuggets we can from the action.
The NFL wasn’t ready for Jayden Daniels
Our concerns with Jayden Daniels were valid for the first two weeks of the season.
Daniels left LSU with the highest passing aDOT of his classmates slated to start in their rookie season (10.5 yards). Coupled with his 13.5% scramble rate, drafters (the Commanders’ front office included) thought they were getting the best of both worlds. But with HC Kliff Kingsbury turning the dials, fears of a “Horizontal Raid” offense looked likely through Week 2.
The last metric was the most concerning. You can (somewhat) get by using the “death-by-a-thousand-cuts” approach. However, the behavior was such a shift from Daniels’ aggressive tendencies in college. But even while his only club of choice seemed to be his putter, the former Tiger could keep the offense moving with his legs.
Arizona notched top-12 marks in RPO and play-action rate under Kingsbury with Kyler Murray. Unsurprisingly, the Commanders are second and eighth in the same benchmarks. Accordingly, even without the passing, Daniels had a serviceable floor. His 12.6 PPG were the most of any mobile QB. All we needed was the downfield passing traits to translate.
And all it took was a bout with the Bengals to unlock them.
Daniels figured out how to use his driver. Since his primetime debut, not only has Daniels slid into the top half of the league in average depth of target, but the rookie’s 0.52 EPA per dropback in Weeks 3 and 4 ranks first of any passer. It took almost three weeks to force the Commanders to punt. Regardless, it’s hard to see how defenses slow down Washington’s offense.
Daniels already has the highest passing success rate when under duress. But even if Daniels takes off, his seven first downs are also unmatched. Without any defensive matchups to give us pause, Daniels and the primary components of offense (McLaurin, Robinson, etc.) should be staples of starting rosters until we see otherwise.
The bye couldn’t come sooner for the Eagles
We’re only a month into the season, and folks are wondering what HC Nick Sirianni adds to the offense. Offseason reports indicated he’d relinquished play-calling duties to OC Kellen Moore. But Sirianni still makes (disastrous) executive decisions. And after another crushing loss, it’s fair to wonder how the team will regroup.
But first, let’s put the first four weeks into context.
The early returns on Moore’s passing game were encouraging. In Week 1. Jalen Hurts averaged 0.37 EPA per dropback for 222 yards and two scores on first and second down. While their early-down passing rate dipped from ’23, the route concepts for Philadelphia’s primary receivers leaned into Hurts’s strengths. The Eagles’ average of 6.5 yards was the 13th-shortest distance any offense needed to convert. But they leaned into the bit (a bit) too much.
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Week 1 (early-down neutral passing rate): 46.5%
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Week 2: 51.1% (no A.J. Brown)
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Week 3: 56.4% (lose DeVonta Smith during the game)
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Week 4: 50.0% (no Brown, Smith or OT Lane Johnson)
Intuitively, calling more passing plays without three starters on the field seems like a bad idea. Anyone watching the Eagles would likely agree. Hurts has gone from 8.5 passing yards per play on early downs to just 5.6 last Sunday. It’s not to say passing shouldn’t be the long-term solution for Philadelphia. But throwing more to lesser-talent options is, well, a choice. Besides, they seemingly have talent elsewhere to get them out of this exact type of situation.
Of the 22 RBs with more than 50.0% of their team’s carries, Saquon Barkley sits inside the top 10 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. Coincidentally, he’s averaged over nine yards per carry on early downs in the last two weeks alone. Admittedly, runs of 59 and 65 yards inflate those averages, but he’s posted back-to-back weeks of +50.0% success rates. The run game is working. Moore just needs to find the right balance to sync Barkley’s ground game to their aerial attack.
Brown got back to practice before Week 4. Smith has extra time with the bye to progress through the concussion protocol. Critically, the time off gives the team space to get healthy. Plus, and maybe more importantly, the coaching staff can integrate the best parts of their offense to make another push in the NFC East.
Kansas City loses their WR1 — now what?
Like most of you, I’ve been scanning social media for any positive news on Rashee Rice. As I’m writing this, we have a glimmer of hope. Either way, we have Week 5 (and beyond) to consider.
However, I don’t want to do anything (at least regarding the Chiefs’ WRs).
A “next-man-up” mentality will lead some fantasy gamers to put in waiver claims for [insert KC WR name here]. If it’s a deep league, I get it. Everyone has value. However, for standard leagues, Rice’s opportunities don’t easily translate to their remaining personnel.
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2021 (passing aDOT): 7.3
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2022: 7.3
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2023: 6.5
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2024: 5.6
Mahomes has hit a career-low in passing depth. A knee-jerk reaction would be the Chiefs’ passing game is yet another victim of two-high coverages. Entering Week 4, Mahomes had just seven downfield throws. At the same point last year, he had 14. Other passers who had slow starts (like Joe Burrow) found a way to get their explosive playmakers involved. And yet, the two-time MVP has the highest rate of passes of 15 air yards or less (91.3%). But honestly, throwing to other WRs wouldn’t have been a good idea anyway.
Rice had a 33.7% target share for a reason. Before his injury, Kansas City’s WR1 averaged more first downs per target (0.52) than Justin Jefferson. Rice even had more explosive plays than JJettas (6 to 5). If I was No. 15, I’d keep throwing to Rice, too!
Well, first, I’d ask for Taylor Swift’s autograph. After that, back to business.
But still, the fallacy of vacated targets assumes there’s a singular pass-catcher (or even two) who benefits from Rice’s absence. Fantasy production is at the crossroads of opportunity AND talent. And for the remaining KC wideouts, we only have confidence in one of those elements.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has the slot role that maps directly to Rice’s deployment, earned as many targets as you did on Sunday. Skyy Moore auditioned for the role, too, but it didn’t go well. In addition, the immediate reaction is that Kansas City will replace Rice through trade.
With Mahomes likely to spread the ball around, I’d rather save my FAAB or waiver priority for another player, even if they are attached to a squad with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Bills’ offense might need more than one Superman
In reality, two things can be true at once. For instance:
OC Joe Brady re-tuned the “Stefon-Diggs-less” passing game into a spread offense without an alpha receiver. Buffalo was above the league average in RPO and play-action rate, giving it the 11th-most productive squad in the league (32.9 yards per drive). Khalil Shakir, their top receiver (by volume), was averaging fewer targets per game (4.8) than Ray-Ray McCloud (5.5), Tre Tucker (5.0) and Greg Dortch (5.0). But it didn’t matter if Josh Allen was slinging the ball to Shakir or Mack Hollins at times. He quickly quieted any beliefs his success required Diggs’s presence.
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Short (BLOS-10 air yards): 0.46 (EPA per dropback), 1st (rank amongst all starters)
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Intermediate (11-19): 1.58, 1st
However, not everybody can be the Packers and move on from an elite WR only to find (draft) multiple talented receivers. Ultimately, every team needs playmakers. And Green Bay has them, while the Bills have some development to do.
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Primary Slot Guy: Jayden Reed (3.23 YPRR), Khalil Shakir (2.61)
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X-Receiver: Romeo Doubs (1.39), Mack Hollins (0.5)
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Z-Receiver: Dontayvion Wicks (1.25), Keon Coleman (1.52)
Of course, Buffalo has Dalton Kincaid bolstering their passing game. And, of course, it helps when your QB can keep defenses on their toes from the pocket to the sideline.
But tough defenses can minimize lesser receiving talents. Buffalo faces two over the next couple of weeks (at HOU, at NYJ). Opposing teams in the playoffs will do all they can to take away the Bills’ passing options. Luckily, we know where most of the targets are going to help with roster decisions (Shakir, Kincaid). Plus, Allen’s 5.7 PPG as a runner gives him a viable floor. Baltimore stopped the Bills’ hype train in Week 4, but Allen will get it back on track.
Nothing but Love for the Packers’ passing game
We probably should’ve known Jordan Love was going to put on a show when he rolled up to Lambeau Field in a Brett Favre jersey. And in true gunslinger fashion, Love set a new career-high in passing yards (389) in his first game back from injury.
Before we overreact (I mean, we should, but bear with me), the Packers trailed Minnesota for the entire game. They hadn’t been down by more than a score all season. HC Matt LaFleur had no choice but to lean on Love’s arm. In either case, there were parts of Green Bay’s offense that should have us looking at the pass-catchers moving forward.
We were right to assume the switch to Malik Willis would crater the fantasy values of the Packers’ wideouts. Green Bay had a +1.0% pass rate over expectation in Week 1. With Willis, it was -21.0%. But in this particular offense, more attempts aren’t all we need.
Love’s passing chart looks like one of my kids spilled holiday-themed glitter on paper.
More importantly, he targeted the middle of the field on 46.0% of his attempts. Over a third of his throws were at intermediate depths. Willis looked to that part of the field just six times in two games. Love amplifying the structure of the offense is why fantasy managers should be targeting GB pass-catchers on waivers.
Dontayvion Wicks is rightfully the top waiver add for Week 5. With Christian Watson likely sidelined for a while, Wicks soared to an 86.0% route rate and a team-high 36.0% air yard share. Plus, Wicks and Romeo Doubs were the only WRs to see looks from 12-personnel formations.
The Packers have averaged the most yards per game (439.5) with Love under center and generated the eighth-most (380.5) without him. It’s one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the league. Tucker Kraft, Emanuel Wilson and Bo Melton (in deep leagues) deserve our consideration too. And with Love continuing to grow within this system, pieces of GB’s offense should remain in our starting lineups for the rest of the season.
