Explaining My Men’s Basketball Big Ten Media Poll Ballot

There have been many differences between the Pac-12 and the Big Ten, some good and some bad. The travel? Worse. The competency of the conference as a whole? Better.

One of those changes is that the Big Ten does not issue an official preseason media poll. So it’s funny that the UW Dawg Pound is submitting a media poll ballot for the first time then and that I got to do it only after I formally retired from my managing editor role.

Thanks to the Indianapolis Star and the Columbus Dispatch for reaching out and coordinating getting a pair of media sources from each Big Ten market to create the independent media poll. Ultimately with 18 teams they fell just short and so 33 of us collaborated to put together the finished product which you can find right here.

Filling out the rankings is not an easy job. The Big Ten has been known in recent years for having a lot of good to very good teams but few truly great ones. The last NCAA tournament title by a team while a member of the Big Ten was way back in 1999-2000 when Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans won the whole thing (current B1G member Maryland won it 3 years later but while in the ACC). Last year’s Purdue team made it to the title game and looked to have a great shot with 2x NPOY Zach Edey but couldn’t quite get it done.

Now Edey is gone and the Big Ten appears to be an absolute mess of similar teams. How difficult is the task of putting them into an order? Barttorvik.com is one of the leading analytics sites out there and they have 15 of the 18 teams in the conference ranked between 16th and 50th in their national projections. That is an absolutely jumbled pile. Last year the Pac-12 had only 4 teams finish in the top-50 and only 2 in the top-38 overall. It’s a whole new world.

Each media member was tasked with ranking the Big Ten spots 1-18 as well as putting forth 5-player picks for 1st and 2nd team all-conference and award winners for Player, Freshman, and Transfer of the Year. I relied heavily on my own computer projection system because, hey if you’ve got one then you might as well use it. I self-imposed a rule that I would only shift a team no more than 2 spots off of where my system projects and generally did so only when my system was a clear outlier from conventional wisdom.

With that said, let’s run through my ballot and provide a little bit of a Big Ten preview. The actual value in parentheses is the total from the actual media poll.

1. Purdue Boilermakers (Actual 1st): Last year 34-5 (17-3), 3rd at KenPom, 3rd at Torvik

My projection system actually has UCLA as the favorite with their completely revamped roster. We’ll get to them in a second but I decided that was a bridge too far to project in their first year in the conference. Purdue is the safe bet even with having lost Edey and bringing in no transfers of note.

Coach Matt Painter has finished in the top-25 at KenPom for 9 straight seasons. He brings back 2 starters and 4 other rotations pieces from a team that made the title game so it isn’t as if the cupboard is completely bare. I don’t think I’d say that Purdue has the best odds of finishing 1st of any team in the conference but it’s hard to see them falling out of the top-3 with Painter’s track record so they’re the safest pick.

2. UCLA Bruins (3rd): Last year 16-17 (10-10), 98th at KenPom, 88th at Torvik

Last year my model picked UCLA 8th in the Pac-12 despite the Bruins being nearly unanimously a top-4 pick everywhere else. It turns out I was right to distrust UCLA’s roster construction and Mick Cronin couldn’t make UCLA good through sheer force of will. This time though it’s a huge believer in the Bruins after they went out and loaded up in the transfer portal. There aren’t any clear superstar additions but UCLA brought in starters from Oregon State, Oklahoma State, USC, South Dakota State, and Louisville to supplement 3 returning starters of their own. It’s an extremely veteran group that also has length and versatility.

There are really only two question marks with UCLA. Can they win the conference if they don’t have a true all-conference level leader on the roster? With so many mouths to feed, will it ruin the chemistry when a couple guys who think they should absolutely be getting major playing time end up out of the rotation?

3. Indiana Hoosiers (2nd): Last year 19-14 (10-10), 91st at KenPom, 83rd at Torvik

Now we come to the Big Ten’s version of UCLA. A program with great history that has underachieved recently, is coming off a really poor year where they finished .500 in conference play, and then added a ton of transfers to try to turn it around immediately. I’m less sold on Indiana’s plan. They raided the corpse of the Pac-12 bringing in Oumar Ballo from Arizona, Myles Rice from Washington State, and Kanaan Carlyle from Stanford. Those are 3 really great players.

The problem is that none of them can consistently make a perimeter shot. That was Indiana’s big problem last year and they went out and doubled down on good players who are poor shooters. The talent is undeniable but the pieces don’t fit how you want them to and that makes me a little dubious having Indiana this high up. But as noted in the intro, there’s a good chance that spots 3-8 in the conference are all nearly identical from a team quality standpoint by the time we reach year’s end and I’ll give the talent the benefit of the doubt.

4. Michigan State Spartans (5th): Last year 20-15 (10-10), 16th at KenPom, 18th at Torvik

It was also a disappointing year for Michigan State who started the season as a consensus top-5 squad but never lived up to that billing. The chemistry just never quite meshed with lead guards AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker and both are now gone. Returning is starting SG/SF Jaden Akins and his 10.4 ppg plus 6 other rotation players who will be tasked with bigger roles. If Michigan State can compete for a conference title though they’ll be led by Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler who averaged 21 ppg on 37% 3-pt shooting last year and will hope to be the next Dalton Knecht as a small school scoring wing who survives the jump up a level in competition to become a national star.

5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7th): Last year 15-17 (7-13), 100th at KenPom, 105th at Torvik

Rutgers is one of the toughest basketball jobs in the country and basically no one other than Steve Pikiell has had success there in the last 20 years. It was a step back last year but there’s a clear reason for optimism in 2024-25. Rutgers managed to keep home a pair of local top-3 overall recruits and the expectation is that both Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper will come in and be one and done lottery picks. If that happens then this team will be able to seriously threaten for a conference title.

I always caution folks for overusing the term “5-star” because there is a big difference between the #1 ranked player and the #20 ranked player. The hit rate on top-3 players though as long as they stay healthy is very high and that raises Rutgers’ floor and ceiling for this year. Around them though are a lot of mid-major transfers as they are turning over almost the entire roster to build around the freshmen.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8th): Last year 22-14 (9-11), 49th at KenPom, 41st at Torvik

The Buckeyes opted to let go of head coach Chris Holtmann partway through last season as they got off to a disastrous start in conference play but turned things around under interim coach John Diebler. That was enough to get Diebler the full-time gig and he’s off to a good start putting a roster together. Bringing back star PG Bruce Thornton certainly helps after he averaged nearly 16 points and 5 assists per game last year.

There’s no question the guards will be good but the frontcourt is relying on a pair of former 5-star transfers (one from Kentucky, one from Duke) who didn’t start last year. If either or both live up to their billing from out of high school then OSU will be scary to play.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (11th): Last year 19-15 (10-10), 57th at KenPom, 54th at Torvik

There’s a good chance I’m higher on Iowa than just about anyone else in the poll. My model actually has the Hawkeyes picked 5th but basically everyone else has them in the bottom half of the B1G. A major part of having Iowa this high is Fran McCaffery’s track record. He has finished in the top-90 of KenPom each of the past 11 seasons and in the top-60 each of the past 5 years. There’s a chance the conference is good enough this year that 60th won’t get you in the upper half but they’re generally a smart bet to avoid the bottom tier.

It helps that they have at least one premium building block. F Payton Sandfort is back after averaging 16.4 ppg and 6.4 rpg. The rest of the roster is admittedly a bit of a work in progress but the combo of one really good player and McCaffery has worked for a while.

Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

8. Michigan Wolverines (9th): Last year 8-24 (3-17), 128th at KenPom, 118th at Torvik

Things absolutely bottomed out under Juwan Howard last year and his status as a member of the Fab Four didn’t save him from getting axed. Now Dusty May is in the head chair and completely revamped the roster on the fly bringing in starters from Ohio State, Texas, North Texas, Yale, and his starting center from Florida Atlantic. It’s essentially UCLA except without the same base of returners to work with and a new head coach. That gets you dropped from 2nd to 8th with the teams banded this closely together.

9. Oregon Ducks (6th): Last year 24-12 (12-8), 55th at KenPom, 54th at Torvik

Just when you think maybe Dana Altman is over the hill, his team goes on a run. The Ducks looked to be floundering last year but won 5 straight games including the Pac-12 tournament and a 1st round NCAA matchup before losing in the Round of 32 to Creighton in 2OT. PG Jackson Shelstad now has the car keys and former Wazzu star TJ Bamba and Stanford’s Brandon Angel have come in to give help on the wing. There is upside with this roster but it just looks a slight tier below a few of the teams on this list and Altman has underachieved my model’s projections in 4 straight seasons.

10. Illinois Fighting Illini (4th): Last year 29-9 (14-6), 10th at KenPom, 13th at Torvik

Most projections will have Illinois ranked higher than this and that’s reasonable. Coach Brad Underwood has 5 straight top-35 KenPom seasons to his credit in Champaign. Gone are 8 of the 9 minutes leaders from last year’s team and their leading returning scorer averaged 6.2 ppg.

It’s not as if Illinois did nothing in the portal to replace that talent. Kylan Boswell is in from Arizona and Tre White came in from Louisville. A pair of top-30 recruits should factor heavily into the rotation. This to me though is a little like last year’s UCLA squad where everyone assumes Illinois will keep up their success but there’s just not quite enough gas in the tank to sustain it.

11. USC Trojans (14th): Last year 15-18 (8-12) 85th at KenPom, 70th at Torvik

This will be weird seeing Will Conroy and Quincy Pondexter on the USC sidelines. The Muss Bus is now parked in L.A as Eric Musselman replaced Andy Enfield as head coach and has brought in an entirely new roster through the portal (including former Husky Wesley Yates who hopes to make his on-court debut if he can stay healthy). The headline name is Xavier’s Desmond Claude but it seems like USC brought in about 7 players who are ~6’6 and they should be extremely switchable on defense. There’s just a little too much of a reliance though on mid-major guys transferring up so I’m not completely sold on the roster.

12. Maryland Terrapins (10th): Last year 16-17 (7-13) 62nd at KenPom, 68th at Torvik

It was a rocky finish for Kevin Willard’s first season at Maryland as the Terps lost 9 of their last 12 games to crush NCAA hopes. Back is PF Julian Reese who nearly averaged a double double last season to anchor the roster. He’ll pair with 5-star center Derik Queen to form what could be an extremely intimidating frontcourt. The guard play is a question mark though as Belmont transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie will need to maintain averaging 17+ ppg while transferring up for this team to have enough offensive firepower.

Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

13. Northwestern Wildcats (16th): Last year 22-12 (12-8) 41st at KenPom, 37th at Torvik

The Wildcats made the NCAA tournament in consecutive years for the first time ever in ‘23 and ‘24 led by do-everything guard Boo Buie. He’s gone now but there is still talent. SF Brooks Barnhizer averaged 14.6 ppg and 7.5 rpg and takes over as the leader of the squad. They just didn’t add much in the portal and Buie was so good for them that it’s hard to see them challenging for the tournament again even if they bring back several other key pieces.

14. Wisconsin Badgers (t-12th): Last year 22-14 (11-9) 17th at KenPom, 25th at Torvik

Wisconsin played a brutal schedule last year so the win total didn’t match the advanced numbers but it ended with a flop as they were upset by James Madison in a 5-12 matchup in the tournament. Lead guard AJ Storr transferred to Kansas and their #3 and #5 scorers graduated. Their big portal addition was Central Arkansas guard Camren Hunter who averaged 17, 5, and 4 but did so on really inefficient scoring. There are zero former top-120 recruits on the roster so we’ll see if this team has the raw talent necessary to compete at the level to which Wisconsin is accustomed.

15. Washington Huskies (15th): Last year 17-15 (9-11) 60th at KenPom, 59th at Torvik

The Huskies obviously turned over nearly their entire roster during the transition from Mike Hopkins to Danny Sprinkle. Last year at Utah State, Sprinkle performed the same magic trick and turned it into a #8 seed in the tourney. He brought PF/C Great Osobor (17.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg) along with him to anchor the new-look team and he’ll probably be joined in the starting lineup with 3 other transfers. We’ll see if C Franck Kepnang can maintain a fully healthy season as he was UW’s best all-around player before suffering a second straight season-ending knee injury.

The question, similar to Indiana, is do the pieces fit together? There are a few okay shooters on the team but also a lot of guys who prefer to score in the paint and there’s a decent chance that the spacing looks too congested. Sprinkle clearly prioritized toughness in the players he brought in heading into the Big Ten and we’ll find out if it pays off.

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (t-12th): Last year 23-11 (12-8) 30th at KenPom, 26th at Torvik

Gone is leading scorer Keisei Tominaga and leading rebounder Rienk Mast suffered a season-ending injury this offseason. A few former Pac-12 players such as Utah’s Rollie Worster and UW’s Braxton Meah are in to help provide reinforcements but the roster talent here just doesn’t quite stack up with the rest of the conference. My model is admittedly a little lower on them than the general consensus.

17. Minnesota Golden Gophers (18th): Last year 19-15 (9-11) 78th at KenPom, 77th at Torvik

We now arrive at what should be closer to a consensus bottom-two squads in the conference. Minnesota finally showed improvement under head coach Ben Johnson and brings back Dawson Garcia (17.6 pgg, 6.7 rpg) who is a PotY candidate. Four of their other five players that averaged 7+ points last season are gone though and the guys they brought in through the portal don’t look to be as good as the ones who left. Oregon transfer Brennan Rigsby and Charlotte transfer Lu’cye Patterson both need to overperform for Minnesota to improve.

18. Penn State Nittany Lions (17th): Last year 16-17 (9-11) 77th at KenPom, 75th at Torvik

Just like with Minnesota, Penn State was better last year and they return a legitimate PotY candidate in PG Ace Baldwin (14.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 2.7 spg) who won DPoY last season in the conference. They lost their leading scorer and leading rebounder though and brought in just about nothing through the transfer portal. Former O’Dea standout Miles Goodman will be a true freshman and is likely to make the rotation as the #102 recruit in the class.

Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

MY ALL-CONFERENCE PICKS

1st Team

G Bruce Thornton (Actual 1st)– Ohio State (15.7 pts, 4.8 ast), G Braden Smith (1st)– Purdue (12.0 pts, 7.5 ast), F Ace Bailey (2nd)– Rutgers (Freshman), F- Brooks Barnhizer (RV)– Northwestern (14.6 pts, 7.5 reb), C Dawson Garcia (2nd)– Minnesota (17.6 pts, 6.7 reb)

2nd Team

G Ace Baldwin (2nd)– Penn State (14.2 pts, 6.0 ast), G Jackson Shelstad (2nd)– Oregon (12.8 pts, 2.8 ast), F Payton Sandfort (1st)– Iowa (16.4 pts, 6.6 reb), F Malik Reneau (RV)– Indiana (15.4 pts, 6.0 reb), C Great Osobor (2nd)– Washington (17.7 pts, 9.0 reb)

Selections That Didn’t Make My Ballot

C Oumar Ballo (1st)- Indiana (12.9 pts, 10.1 reb)

G Dylan Harper (1st)- Rutgers (Freshman)

Player of the Year: G Braden Smith- Purdue

Freshman of the Year: F Ace Bailey- Rutgers

Transfer of the Year: C Great Osobor- Washington

None of these picks are particularly bold. I went with almost entirely players who were really good on the teams they played for last season. Only one freshman makes the list in Rutgers’ Ace Bailey which unsurprisingly means that he is also my pick for Freshman of the Year. His 5-star teammate Dylan Harper ended up making 1st team and was the actual FotY pick.

The only player who I really needed to project on was Oregon G Jackson Shelstad but as a former top-25 commit who is entering his sophomore season I think he’s poised for a breakout campaign. The media agreed as he received the most votes of anyone on the 2nd team.

My only transfer to make the teams was Great Osobor which means he also gets the nod for transfer of the year. It was close to make Osobor the big on the 2nd team but what’s a media poll without letting your local player win the tiebreaker? The media is more sold on Indiana transfer Oumar Ballo coming over after averaging a double-double at Arizona and he both made 1st team and won the TotY voting.

Finally, I opted for Braden Smith to win Player of the Year but don’t feel great about it. His assist numbers were propped up by being able to throw it to Zach Edey every time down the floor and that attention left him open to shoot 43% from deep. But I think UCLA is too deep to have a candidate and I don’t fully trust Indiana. I’m not ready make Frankie Fidler a B1G player of the year on Michigan St and don’t like making a true freshman a conference player of the year at Rutgers. So I guess that leaves Smith. A ringing endorsement. He was the runaway winner in the voting though (27 of 33 votes) so I guess everyone else arrived at the same conclusion.