One of the most important things to keep in mind when drafting your team is to recognize all of the possible outcomes for each player. Sometimes, we know exactly what we’re going to get from an individual player. Other times, we have no idea. It could be a league-winning pick, or it could be one of the most frustrating picks you’ve ever had.
The following 10 players have a chance to be home runs. They also have a chance to disappoint. It’s important to understand both realities and draft based on what you believe is the right one. When drafting these guys, you have to weigh the risk and the reward. A smart drafter will happily draft these guys, though it isn’t necessarily a wise move to draft a team full of them.
Jordan Poole
Everybody knows how poorly last year went for Poole, but if you stopped paying attention, you may have missed his turn around. Over his final 14 games of the season, Poole averaged 21.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.1 threes per game. Those games were all without Tyus Jones, and he’s now in Phoenix. Malcolm Brogdon will be sidelined for the first month of the season, and the Wizards have already said that Poole will be their point guard. It seems like he’s ready to bounce back.
On the other hand, there’s still a chance that it doesn’t work out like that. Poole and the Wizards were a meme for most of last season, and with a bunch of rookies in the mix, they won’t be better. The possibility of Poole struggling once again on a tanking team is real, and we saw how bad it got early on last season.
Josh Giddey
Giddey became a liability in OKC, and a fresh start should do him some good. Chicago was willing to part with Alex Caruso to bring him in, and he should handle the ball a lot early on. It’s unclear what the starting lineup will look like, but he’s still super young and a great source of rebounds and assists. On a rebuilding team, he could pop and be worth the selection in the middle rounds.
However, what if the same issues that limited him with the Thunder follow him to Chicago? He isn’t going to magically become a better shooter or defender overnight, and there are other guards like Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and even Lonzo Ball competing for minutes. He could see an even smaller role than his 25.1 minutes per game from last season. Things may not get better for Giddey with a new team.
With Mikal Bridges gone, the expectation is that Thomas is going to immediately step in and average 25 points per game. He averaged 22.5 per game last year, and that number should easily jump up with Bridges’ 15.8 shots per game needing to be filled. Thomas is an elite source of points and 3-pointers, and he should be able to chip in some other numbers now that he is the primary scoring option.
Cam Thomas
If that scoring doesn’t improve, Thomas may not make much of an impact in category leagues. In 31.4 minutes per game, he didn’t contribute many numbers other than buckets. What if he struggles to score with more defensive attention on him? Thomas may just be a field goal percentage killer if he doesn’t make some improvements.
Walker Kessler
Everybody knows how good Kessler is in fantasy, but Will Hardy wasn’t interested in starting him for most of his first two seasons. However, Kessler started in Utah’s first two preseason games, which is great news for fantasy managers. If Hardy keeps starting him, Kessler should see more than enough minutes to shine in fantasy, specifically with his elite block rate.
Unfortunately, there is a chance that Kessler doesn’t play more minutes just because he is starting. While the expectation may be that a starting center will play more than 30 minutes per game, he could be closer to 25, as Hardy opts for a more switchable frontcourt to defend guards when needed. Kessler will still be good, but he could be a bust at his ADP if he isn’t playing starter level minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu
Is this the year? Will OO finally become the starting center in Atlanta? If he does, get ready for the breakout. Clint Capela has had a ton of success catching lobs from Trae Young, and Alex Len even had a solid stretch before Capela arrived. Okongwu is far more dynamic offensively, and if he can get over 30 minutes per game consistently, we’re looking at a potential top-50 finish, if not better.
Maybe it isn’t the year. Maybe Capela continues to start, or Okongwu starts and splits the minutes at center. There’s also a chance that he doesn’t improve as a rebounder, which hurts the team. OO has been primed for a breakout year since he was a rookie, and there is always a chance that we have to wait another year.
Scoot Henderson
Playing point guard in the NBA isn’t easy, and many rookies struggle. Henderson had a ton of hype around him, and he may be able to put it together in year two. He was excellent down the stretch in a high volume role, and he may improve his efficiency through experience. He can be an elite source of points and assists in the later rounds, and if he takes the expected year two leap, he should outplay his ADP.
Still, we can’t just gloss over how bad Scoot was as a rookie. 38.5% from the floor and 3.4 turnovers are atrocious numbers, especially since he only averaged 5.4 assists per game. Anfernee Simons will still have the ball a lot, and Henderson may be ineffective once again when he has the opportunity to make a play. Simply put, his inefficiency is difficult to manage.
Christian Braun
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in Orlando, the starting shooting guard spot is up for grabs in Denver. Braun got the first crack at it, and he can be the perimeter defender that they need to make up for the absence of KCP. He isn’t a great shooter, but he can do a little bit of everything to help the team win. A lot of those little things combined together in a large role will allow him to pop in category leagues.
Of course, we’re talking about a player that has yet to finish inside the top-250 in 9-cat leagues in his career. There’s a chance that he doesn’t see his numbers improve just because his role increased, or Julian Strawther could end up starting to provide them with some floor spacing. Braun could end up being completely irrelevant in fantasy hoops once again.
Matas Buzelis
The rookie is in such an interesting situation. He was an elite shooter in high school but didn’t shoot well in the G-League. Still, he was able to put up some excellent defensive numbers, and now he’s joining a team that is trying to find an identity. Buzelis should play a large role early on, and while there will be some growing pains, he is in one of the best spots to pop as a rookie. Despite falling to pick 11, Buzelis could contend for Rookie of the Year.
Like almost every rookie, Buzelis could simply struggle a lot. He had a lot of issues in the G-League, and it may not be a smooth transition to the NBA, which has been the case for many former G-League Ignite players. Buzelis’ struggles may outweigh the positives that he can bring as a rookie by a lot.
Gradey Dick
It appears that Dick is on track to start, and his offense could open up the floor a lot for a young Raptors squad. Over the final month of his rookie year, Gradey provided plenty of points and 3-pointers in an expanded role, and there is no reason to think that he won’t get better in year two. With Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes feeding him open looks, Dick should be in for a big season.
However, when he was raining in 3-pointers last year, he didn’t really contribute much else. That could remain true this season, and he hasn’t really given an indication that it won’t. He may fit well from a basketball perspective, but that doesn’t mean that he’ll make an impact in fantasy, especially in category leagues.
Keon Ellis
After Kevin Huerter went down last year, Ellis proved why he should be the team’s starting shooting guard. He was an elite source of steals and blocks for a guard, and he ended up having some good performances from beyond the arc down the stretch of the season. It’s unclear who will be the starter, but I think Ellis should be. If he is, he will have a chance to make a massive, massive impact in 9-cat leagues due to his defensive abilities.
Unfortunately, there is still a chance that Huerter gets the starting nod. If that happens, there may not be enough minutes to go around for Ellis to provide much fantasy value, since Malik Monk will be the primary reserve guard, and Devin Carter will eventually be healthy. Ellis may be a waste of a pick if he’s stuck behind Huerter.
