It’s not a stretch to say that in most fantasy basketball drafts, the late rounds can often separate the contenders from the pretenders. Pulling the lever on selections that require a bit of faith in the unseen or yet-to-be-realized potential takes a bit of fortitude but can pay handsome dividends when they hit.
Accordingly, we’re highlighting multiple options at guard, forward and center who could exceed consensus expectations this coming NBA season:
Guards
Lonzo Ball, Bulls (PG)
By definition, a sleeper carries an inherent combination of risk and upside. If there’s any player that fits the bill to a T, it could well be Ball, whose next minute of regular-season on-court action will be his first since January 14, 2022, due to multiple knee surgeries. However, with the veteran guard apparently remaining free of setbacks for months on end, it appears Ball’s arduous journey back to the floor may be finally nearing completion. And a presumably healthy Ball is a known entity for us in terms of fantasy production.
Assuming there hasn’t been a permanent loss of explosion and speed, Ball can make meaningful contributions in points (albeit not always in an optimally efficient manner), assists, rebounds and steals. For what it’s worth, Ball was also shooting a career-high 42.3% from 3-point range in that truncated 2021-22 season.
The other primary question surrounding Ball besides health is the extent of his playing time, considering the Bulls added Josh Giddey this offseason. Nevertheless, if Ball proves durable, he should carve out a robust second-unit role, at minimum, as the season progresses.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Mavericks (PG, SG)
Dinwiddie and the Mavs just can’t seem to quit each other, as the veteran is set for his third tour of duty with the franchise after signing a one-year deal this offseason. He also spent parts of the 2021-22 and 2022-2023 campaigns in Dallas, and thanks to his earlier time with the Nets, Dinwiddie has experience sharing a backcourt and serving as a second-unit complement to Kyrie Irving in addition to Luka Dončić.
Dinwiddie did appear out of sorts and a less-than-ideal fit during his time with the Lakers in the latter part of last season and in the postseason. Yet, this is a fresh start with the defending Western Conference champs and alongside some personnel and a head coach he’s already very familiar with. Dinwiddie has already proven a very good fit in Jason Kidd’s system — he shot over 40.0% from distance in each of his previous Mavericks stints while averaging a combined 16.8 points across the entirety of his 76-game, two-year tenure in Dallas.
Other Guard sleepers to consider: Marcus Sasser, Pistons (PG); Gabe Vincent, Lakers (PG,SG); Julian Strawther, Nuggets (SG)
Forwards
Kris Murray, Trail Blazers (SF, PF)
Murray isn’t a name that’s anywhere near top of mind for fantasy players going into this fall’s draft, but particularly for those in deeper leagues, he’s certainly one that’s prudent to keep in mind. The 2023 first-round pick got plenty of seasoning at the college level by today’s standards, playing three seasons at Iowa and heading to the NBA after a standout junior campaign (20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steals). Murray then finished his rookie season with 28 consecutive starts for an injury-hampered and non-contending Blazers team, averaging a serviceable 9.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steals across 32.2 minutes per contest.
Offensive efficiency was an issue for Murray as a rookie — he shot just 39.1% in that aforementioned span — but much higher accuracy is definitely within his range of outcomes, considering he drained 47.1% of his shots over his last two college seasons. Portland is once again projected for another sub-30-win season and young pieces like Murray should therefore be prioritized, especially if a veteran like Jerami Grant is eventually moved.
Simone Fontecchio, Pistons (SF, PF)
Fontecchio saw his 2023-24 season come to an untimely end on St. Patrick’s Day due to a toe injury, right as he was in the midst of a particularly productive run following his trade from the Jazz. In 16 games (nine starts) with Detroit, Fontecchio averaged 15.4 points (on 47.9% shooting, including 42.6% from 3-point range), 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists across 30.3 minutes per contest. Fontecchio is expected to be fully healthy to start the new campaign, and although he’ll slot in behind Tobias Harris at power forward, that shouldn’t be a significant impediment to solid production.
Fontecchio will likely enjoy a sizable second-unit role right out of the gate, and if the 32-year-old Harris has his minutes managed to a degree and/or begins to wear down, then the former’s minutes would only figure to expand. Fontecchio has already proven a capable perimeter shooter during his brief NBA tenure, and his well-rounded game could certainly take another significant step forward on a team that should once again prioritize young talent.
Other Forward sleepers to consider: Brice Sensabaugh, Jazz (SF, PF); Cam Whitmore, Rockets (SF,PF); Tari Eason, Rockets (SF, PF)
Centers
Kel’el Ware, Heat (C)
Ware may be a rookie playing behind Bam Adebayo, but the 15th overall pick already looks very capable of forcing Erik Spoelstra’s hand and carving out an early, meaningful role. Following an impressive sophomore campaign at Indiana, Ware immediately began validating Miami’s June investment in him with a Summer League stint that saw him average 18.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.9 blocks across 26.5 minutes per game.
Ware is a seven-footer with some range as well, as he was prone to taking the occasional 3 in college and finished with a 42.5% success rate from behind the arc during his sophomore season. Ware appears set to open the season as perhaps the first big man off the bench for Miami, and if he proves dependable early, a role large enough for him to deliver meaningful fantasy contributions is certainly possible.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Warriors (PF, C)
Jackson-Davis flashed potential during his rookie 2023-24 season, recording 27 double-digit scoring performances, including six double-doubles, following an impressive four-year college career that seemingly left him prepared to hit the floor running at the pro level.
The fact that the Indiana product accomplished those numbers over only 16.6 minutes per game makes the production all the more noteworthy, and his average of 1.1 blocks per contest despite his 6-foot-8 stature is also eye-catching.
Looking ahead to the 2024-25 campaign, it appears as if the volatile and soon-to-be 35-year-old Draymond Green is the only obstacle between Jackson-Davis and a starting center role. Kevon Looney is also still on the roster, but he already filled a reduced role last season (16.1 minutes per game) and could be slotted for modest playing time again in the coming campaign.
Other Center sleepers to consider: Jalen Smith, Bulls (PF,C); Zach Collins, Spurs (PF, C); Richaun Holmes, Wizards (C)
