So it turns out it still takes a little time to learn to play in the NFL — two games. Since his disastrous Weeks 1-2, Caleb Williams is averaging 7.89 yards per attempt to go along with a 9:3 TD:INT total, 106.4 QB rating and 70 percent completion rate across four starts. He has added 15 scrambles for 110 critical yards.
Here comes the “but”s. The first “good game” of that stretch wasn’t even good against the Colts, while the rest has come against a tissue-soft schedule. Williams is still taking far too many sacks, as well as starting seemingly every game out of rhythm.
Back to the “however”s. A young player taking advantage of soft matchups is a very good thing. Do you know who is usually a good matchup for a bad defense? A rookie quarterback. Williams has already stopped being the meat. He’s also getting into gear a little faster with each passing week. He is progressing in ways both linear and exponential.
That could remain the case for several weeks following the Bears’ Week 7 bye. Chicago comes back stateside to face the Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots. Washington and Arizona are both top five in QB fantasy points allowed, and the Patriots would be if teams ever had to throw against them. The schedule doesn’t really tighten up until Week 12, when Chicago faces the Vikings.
Perhaps that will be a wake-up call. But even that’s good news. You know who gets wake-up calls? Young players who have been playing better than expected. Except, of course, this was expected. Williams is one of the 2-3 best quarterback prospects of the past 15 years. He is very much looking like it. Don’t let the circumstances cheapen it. This was not a test he was preordained to pass. Now on to the next one.
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Five Week 6 Storylines
Drake Mayes gives the Pats a pulse in first career start. Was Drake Maye “good” on Sunday? We know this — he was definitely better. Far, far, far better than what the Pats were getting from the remains of Jacoby Brissett. So much better that his three passing touchdowns were more than Brissett had supplied all season. And you know what? Maye was actually pretty good for a rookie in his first start against a strong defense. 243 yards against that team behind that offensive line was far from a given, even in comeback game script. Maye’s dual-threat was also alive and well with his five carries for 38 yards. I would say it’s not time to get crazy and consider Maye a legit QB2 streamer, but … for Week 7 he is facing a Jags defense surrendering the most QB fantasy points that just happens to be at its lowest moment.
J.K. Dobbins reaches 20 carries for first time in career. When I saw 25 carries for Dobbins, I was fairly certain it was a new career high. I had no idea he had never even previously flirted with the 20 threshold. 17. That was Dobbins’ previous personal best for totes. One of those times was this Week 2. Dobbins entered 2024 having handled more than 15 carries all of one time. He has passed the Chargers’ workload test. Now for the efficiency. Living off big runs early, Dobbins hasn’t hit one since Week 2. He is averaging 3.19 yards per tote since Week 3. An early rush yards over expected superstar, he has been in the negative over his past three starts. Even with Gus Edwards on I.R., Dobbins is going to need to start hitting more long gainers with Kimani Vidal now mixed into the rotation. The Cardinals’ awful defense could be just the place to start in Week 7.
Kimani Vidal reminds fantasy managers he exists. Which, of course, brings us to Vidal. For all the reasons we just outlined above with Dobbins, the Chargers probably want this to remain a two-back backfield even while Edwards misses a minimum of three more contests. Is sixth-round rookie Vidal up to the challenge? His Sunday opportunities were limited, but he made the most of them. His 38-yard touchdown reception was one of the longest by any player all week. He ran 10 routes on his 19 snaps (per PFF) and touched the ball on six of his 19 plays. Even more impressively, he held his own in pass protection. It’s hard to get too excited about six touches for a player who had previously been healthy scratched all year, but Vidal is finally worthy of a bench stash in all formats.
Jerome Ford suffers hamstring injury as Browns prepare for Nick Chubb’s return. Ford made it only two carries before popping his hammy in Philly. Will he even get two more games as starter? D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong were a perfectly fine committee in Ford’s absence, but the real news is Chubb is pacing toward making his 2024 debut this week. Although the Browns will undoubtedly do all they can to avoid putting too much on Chubb’s plate in his return, the reality is, savior syndrome will be running rampant. Someone has to do something in this offense. In the past, it’s always been Chubb. The Browns took their time with his recovery, hopefully an indication he will be ready to hit the ground running against the Bengals’ shaky defense. Even in this dismal offense, Chubb can be considered an upside FLEX.
Calvin Ridley zero balls as Titans’ offense falls further. Zero catches on eight targets. That’s never going to be entirely the quarterback’s fault, but let’s be real: It was mostly the quarterback’s fault. Ridley couldn’t hide his frustration afterward, saying he needs to be fed looks earlier in the game to get him into the game after he entered halftime against the Colts with only two targets. The Ridley squeaky wheel narrative is clear heading into Week 7 against the Bills, but the Titans will never have a better matchup than they did Sunday against the Colts. They probably do have a better quarterback than Will Levis. Ridley’s fortunes might not improve until the inevitable change to Mason Rudolph is made.
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Five More Week 6 Storylines
Marvin Harrison Jr. suffers concussion, Cardinals go nowhere in Green Bay. Your offense is going to have a hard time when the No. 1 weapon goes down in the first quarter. A huge problem for the Cardinals is that Kyler Murray hasn’t been doing much even with MHJ in the fold. Struggling for both volume and efficiency, Murray is 17th in total passing, placing behind four quarterbacks who have already had their byes. Smack dab in the middle of the pack in completion percentage over expected, Murray is a disappointing 20th in yards per attempt. He paces better in EPA per play, but this is not a player moving the needle in fantasy or real life. Even with Kliff Kingsbury gone for Washington, Murray is far too comfortable checking down. The only good news right now is that Harrison has an extra day to get cleared from his concussion with the Cardinals playing on Monday Night Football in Week 7.
Josh Downs continues to look like No. 1 receiver amidst QB uncertainty. While Michael Pittman showed elite toughs playing through his back injury — something that did not go unnoticed by the coaching staff — it was nevertheless Downs who was once again Joe Flacco’s primary read. In the three games where Flacco has played a majority of the snaps, Downs has caught at least seven passes on at least nine targets. Big boy usage. Of course, he’s had also had big boy efficiency, looking more like a running back than wideout with his 8.9 yards per catch on the year, but we don’t care about that in fantasy. Just catch the ball young man. We do worry about who is under center. If Anthony Richardson returns for Week 7 against the Dolphins, Downs will find himself on the WR3/4 borderline instead of his current top 24.
Chris Olave’s season goes further sideways with another concussion. Struggling through inconsistency and quarterback woes heading into Week 6, Olave now has a much bigger problem. His Sunday concussion is at least the fourth documented head issue of his football career. That is “needs some time away” territory. The Saints will probably dither in that department as they look to keep Spencer Rattler supplied with weapons during his evaluation period, but the decision is at least out of their hands for Week 7. Unless the team somehow opts to claim he was not concussed, Olave will be unavailable for Thursday’s short-week contest with the Broncos. It’s a wolves-throwing for Rattler vs. Denver’s elite defense.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier both clear 100 yards from scrimmage vs. Panthers. Fantasy managers will view that as bad enough. Even worse was Allgeier out-carrying Robinson. Not great, also … not that big of a deal. 10 of Allgeier’s 18 totes came in the fourth quarter of a game Atlanta clearly considered over even though they entered the frame leading by a modest score of 28-20. Worst case: Allgeier is considered the closer. That is annoying, and also appeared to be the case in Atlanta’s Week 5 overtime win. Robinson still continues to handily win the snap battle, and he has once again been winning the production and efficiency battles the past two weeks. It’s a two-back backfield. Only of them is currently the RB15 by average PPR points.
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs return, Dontayvion Wicks departs for Packers. Wicks left early with a shoulder injury and the Packers’ targets rotation proceeded to get more spread out than ever. Only Jayden Reed caught more than three passes, but he turned his receptions into a mediocre 28 yards. Watson and Doubs led in yardage but tied with three catches. Tucker Kraft and the running backs remained involved, making this as even of a target rotation as you will ever see. Reed will continue to command the largest share, but Watson and Doubs’ down-field ability could make drives shorter, limiting overall volume opportunities. Reed is a WR2. At least for the time being, everyone else is probably battling it out in WR4 territory.
Questions
1. Have the Giants read the NFL bylaws that outline the need to occasionally kick the ball for points?
2. Guest question from Nick Sirianni: Let’s fight this entire stadium! Who’s with me? *No one goes with me*
3. Maybe Sean Payton should start letting Bo Nix play real football before going down three scores?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Justin Herbert (@AZ), Drake Maye (@JAX), Daniel Jones (vs. PHI), Matthew Stafford (vs. LV), Joe Flacco (vs. MIA)
RB: Tyrone Tracy, Ty Chandler, Braelon Allen, Tyler Allgeier, Tyler Goodson, Kimani Vidal, Emanuel Wilson, D’Onta Foreman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sean Tucker
WR: Josh Downs, Christian Watson, Jalen Tolbert, DeMario Douglas, Romeo Doubs, Xavier Legette, Rashod Bateman
TE: Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Colby Parkinson, Theo Johnson, Ja’Tavion Sanders
DEF: Bengals (@CLE), Colts (vs. MIA), Saints (vs. DEN), Commanders (vs. CAR), Rams (vs. LV)
Stats of the Week
Deahaun Watson has taken at least five sacks in 4-of-6 starts. He has one multi-score day through the air. He has yet to reach 200 yards passing.
Deshaun Watson stats of the week, from Field Yates: “The Browns have now become the first team in 10 years to score under 20 points in each of its first six games of the season. Cleveland has now scored once in its last 29 drives.”
Deshaun Watson stats of the week II, from Bill Barnwell: “Since 2007, out of 566 passers through six weeks, Watson ranks: QBR: 558th. Yards per dropback: 565th. First down rate: 566th.”
Via Todd Archer: “The Cowboys have allowed 167 points in their last four home games, including regular season and playoffs. That is the third most over a four-game span at home in NFL history.”
The Eagles have yet to score in the first quarter this season.
Awards Section
Week 6 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Caleb Williams, RB Joe Mixon, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Chris Godwin, WR A.J. Brown, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Cole Kmet
Week 6 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Dak Prescott, RB Travis Etienne, RB Javonte Williams, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Calvin Ridley, WR George Pickens, TE Jake Ferguson
The Well At Least The Jaguars Don’t Have To Remain On A Different Continent For An Entire ‘Nother Week After That Award: The Jaguars having to remain in London for an entire ‘nother week after that.
The That’s Now How You Kimani Vidal Award: Dylan Laube losing a fumble on his first career touch.
