We have about one week until the first tip of the regular season, and this is when most people are doing their fantasy basketball drafts. There’s no better time of the year, and hitting on your first few picks will be critical to your success. We’re writing this article to present players who should be first-round picks. Only 12 guys will be selected in the first round of standard leagues, but a handful more could deliver first-round value. With that in mind, let’s look at some of those snubs!
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
ADP: 12.5
I’ve seen Curry taken between 10-15 in every draft I’ve done, and I will always select him if I pick in that range. The greatest shooter of all time is simply a cheat code in most formats because of his shooting. Not only has he shot 92% from the free-throw line over the last seven seasons, but he’s also a near-guarantee to lead the league in 3-pointers made. Chef Curry has led the league in 3-pointers in eight of the last 12 seasons and typically laps the field in that category.
Having a guy lead the league in two different categories is a godsend for 9-cat leagues, and Curry’s also averaging 28.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 4.9 3s per game over the last four seasons. Pairing that with elite shooting makes him one of the best options in fantasy basketball, and he could have an even higher usage now that Chris Paul and Klay Thompson are out of the picture.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
ADP: 12.7
It’s funny that Curry and Young have the same ADP because these guys are very similar players. Young isn’t quite as good of a shooter as Curry, but he will make up for it with his assists. Ice Trae has at least 9.3 assists in five straight seasons, leading all active players with 9.5 assists throughout his career. That’s scary since he might do even more playmaking with Dejounte Murray out of the picture, but it’s not like Murray is lacking in scoring.
Young is fifth among all active players with a career mark of 25.5 points per game, averaging 27 points, 3.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.8 3s since his rookie season. Those numbers would easily make him a top-10 player behind his 88% mark from the free-throw line, but that might be his floor with Murray moving to New Orleans.
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James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
ADP: 16.8
Harden started the draft season by being picked in the 20s, but that has rapidly changed. There is some thought that Harden will return to the high-usage star we saw in Houston because he needs to do more with Paul George out of the picture. That leaves just Harden and Kawhi Leonard, but The Klaw may miss some time because he’s already dealing with a knee issue.
With PG13 off the floor last season, Harden averaged 21.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.9 3s per 36 minutes played. We can assume 35-40 minutes is realistic, and those numbers would get even higher if Leonard also missed time. When both of those studs were off the floor, Harden averaged 33.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 4.5 3s per 36 minutes played! We don’t expect that, but that’s the sort of stat line that made Harden the best player in fantasy with the Rockets.
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
ADP: 17.1
There is a phrase in fantasy sports known as an “injury discount.” That’s what we have with KD because he’s played 55 games or fewer in three of the last four seasons. The effectiveness is still there, and we’re encouraged by his 75 appearances last season. We also love that he played 37.2 minutes per night — his highest total in a decade!
The statistics were exactly what you’d expect from this superstar, averaging 27.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 3s per game last year. Durant also adds 52% from the field and 86% from the free-throw line, making him one of the only players in the league who provides in every single category. There are simply not many players as reliable as this guy from a nine-cat standpoint. Durant has finished inside the top 20 on a per-game basis in nearly every season since 2009!
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
ADP: 23.1
Most of these guys are safe options near the end of the first round, but let’s get a dark horse in here! Ball typically falls to the end of the second round, but this guy can be a first-round player. Injuries have really soured fantasy managers in recent years as he’s played only 58 games over the last two seasons. What people don’t talk about is Ball was one of the best players in fantasy when he was on the floor, averaging 23.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.6 3s per game in that span.
That’s the aforementioned “injury discount” we mentioned in the Durant write-up, but what’s different about Ball is that he’s just 23 years old! This kid might be scratching the surface of what he could become, and seeing an improvement in those statistics would make him a top-10 player in fantasy. Charlotte is also one of the worst teams in the league, and they will need Ball to carry them as far as he can take them. Ball finished as the sixth-best player in 2021 when he played 75 games as a 20-year-old, so seeing an improvement from that would be far from surprising.
Other players under consideration
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Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings (ADP: 14.2)
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Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 17.2)
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Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (ADP: 17.2)
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Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (ADP: 19.2)
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Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (ADP: 19.4)
