Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Let’s get into it.
Positive Regression Candidates
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)
It doesn’t feel great to include as a positive regression candidate the quarterback who ranks fourth-worst in dropback success rate this season. But I must. The numbers leave me no choice.
Only six quarterbacks have more passing yards than Rodgers over the past four weeks in a Jets offense with a stunningly high 69% dropback rate over that stretch. The touchdowns haven’t been there for old A-Rod, however. He’s posted a humble touchdown rate of 3.2% since Week 4, going cold on his red-zone attempts in particular.
If the Jets remain a pass-first offense, Rodgers has a decent shot of benefiting from a touchdown bump in the coming weeks. He’s seeing a good number of high-leverage pass attempts; only Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have more inside-the-20 throws than Rodgers through Week 8.
Geno Smith (SEA)
I’m sick of it, you’re sick of it, we’re all sick of it. But Geno remains in the positive regression column because man, this guy is gaining a lot of yards without many touchdowns.
To give you an idea of how incredibly cold Smith is running, he’s thrown one (1) touchdown every 282 yards over the past five games. His 2.6% touchdown rate is the third lowest in the NFL and well below his 4.5% rate over the past two seasons. Passing yardage has accounted for 75% of Seattle’s total yardage through Week 8, and the Seahawks’ 9.2% pass rate over expected leads the NFL by a wide margin.
I don’t think Smith can defy math for much longer. We will see.
Bucky Irving (TB)
Clearly the Bucs’ best running back, Irving is proving a more efficient rusher and pass catcher than backfield mate Rachaad White.
An underrated part of Irving’s fantasy upside case is his red- and green-zone involvement. Irving, who had 84 yards on 16 touches last week against Atlanta, has more inside-the-five rushes than all but three running backs. His 12 inside-the-10 carries rank ninth among backs, though he has a mere three scores on those rushes.
A rush yards over expected star, Irving is something close to a must-start in 12-team formats with so many high-value touches in the high-volume Tampa offense. Irving has been targeted on 19% of his routes, a decent indication that Baker Mayfield — who targeted running backs 14 times in Week 7 — will continue feeding Irving in the pass game.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Stevenson got there for fantasy purposes in Week 8 while averaging a breathtakingly awful 2.4 yards per carry against the run-funnel Jets defense. Behold: the power of two touchdowns.
It’s clear the Patriots want to lean hard on the run when game script allows it. That was the theory behind playing Stevenson last week against New York, and since the Jets stink, it worked out. In an offense with a 52% neutral pass rate — the fifth-lowest in the NFL — Stevenson should see fantastic rushing volume and a smattering of pass game involvement in games with decent game script. One such game could be on tap for Week 9 against the down-unfathomably Titans.
Amari Cooper (BUF)
Cooper has a mere five catches for 69 yards and a score in two games with the Bills. He ran something close to a full route share in Week 8 against the Seahawks and saw two looks from Josh Allen. It wasn’t great for those (me) who thought Cooper showed glimpses in Week 7 of the target domination to come.
Cooper has been targeted on a not-entirely-hateful 19% of his pass routes in two games with Buffalo. He’s second on the team (behind Keon Coleman) in air yards over those two outings. It hasn’t all been bad for the veteran.
The bull case for Cooper might lie in the newly pass-first Bills offense. They were 14% over their expected pass rate (PROE) in Week 7 and 1% over in Week 8. That stands in stark contrast to their -4% PROE before Cooper’s arrival. I would caution against Cooper drafters giving up on their guy just yet.
Calvin Ridley (TEN)
I’m putting Ridley in this positive regression space not because I think he can improve on last week’s 10-catch, 113-yard performance against the Lions, but because I think the kind of opportunity Ridley saw against Detroit will be the new norm in the post-Hopkins Tennessee offense.
Only three players have piled up more air yards than Ridley since Week 5. In Week 8, Ridley ranked ninth in air yards (137) and saw an absurd 39.5% target share. This came after Titans coaches said they were done forcing the ball to Ridley.
So it goes.
I mentioned Ridley in last week’s Funnel Defense Report as a possible beneficiary of the new Titans offense without DeAndre Hopkins in a matchup against one of the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnel defenses in Detroit. Thankfully for Ridley, the Titans stink and will be chasing points for much of the remainder of the regular season. He should be locked into 12-team lineups.
Tyreek Hill (MIA)
You’re inconsolable after Hill’s down fantasy day against the Cardinals in Week 8 in what was supposed to be the glorious return of Tua and the dominance of Hill, who has sunk your team this season. You got 72 scoreless yards on six grabs against Arizona. The agony knows no bounds.
I’ll try to soothe you with the following: Hill led the Dolphins with a 49% air yards share and a 24% target share against the Cardinals. Miami was 1% over its expected pass rate — a marked increase from how pass-averse they were with Tua out of the lineup.
Don’t get crazy and bench Hill in Week 9. And don’t trade him away unless you get a legit offer. He’ll come around.
Dalton Schultz (HOU)
The Texans, with Stefon Diggs going down with a knee injury, have no choice but to make Schultz a central part of their (somewhat depressing) passing offense. We’ve seen Schultz’s opportunities ramp up with Nico Collins (hamstring) sidelined: Only seven tight ends have more targets than Schultz (17) since Week 6. He’s top-10 in tight end pass routes too.
Importantly, Schultz is running about 60% of his routes from the slot (a higher rate than all but five tight ends over the past three weeks). Tight ends, as you may know, tend to produce more in the way of fantasy points when operating from the slot. Schultz has a real chance to be a top-10 fantasy play based on volume alone in the coming weeks. With an average depth of target of 8, he profiles as a legit PPR scam, which we like very much.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Negative Regression Candidates
Baker Mayfield (TB)
That Baker is suddenly an unquestionably elite fantasy option should make your fantasy football spidy senses tingle. Or maybe you were on the toilet too long checking your lineups and your legs went numb. Either way, something isn’t quite right with Mayfield’s production of late.
Mayfield has thrown a touchdown on 7.6% of his attempts over the past four games. That includes at least three touchdowns in each of his past four outings. This could be related to Tampa’s bottom-dwelling defense leaving the offense no choice but to let it rip through the air; only the Seahawks and Bengals have a higher pass rate over expected on the season. Even so, Mayfield — whose career TD rate is 4.8% — is running unsustainably hot right now.
Don’t get cute and start Mayfield over the game’s top QB plays in Week 9.
Ladd McConkey (LAC)
I mentioned McConkey as a positive regression candidate in last week’s column largely because the Chargers have been uncharacteristically pass-first in recent weeks. That trend continued (to some extent) in Week 8 against the Saints, as the Bolts were 3% above their expected dropback rate.
I’m writing this to make you feel bad about being excited to start McConkey after he caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns (and nearly scored a third TD) against a lifeless New Orleans offense. Ladd’s 20% target share against the Saints wasn’t exactly sparkling, nor were his 73 air yards, which ranked second among L.A. pass catchers on the day.
It’s not that you can’t start McConkey in 12-team formats as a WR3. You can. I’ll allow it. His 23.5% target per route run rate is on the strong side. Just don’t get crazy and treat McConkey as a locked-and-loaded WR2 option.
Mark Andrews (BAL)
Andrews, as you probably know, has four touchdowns on his last 13 targets. That’s enough to wake the Regression Reaper from its slumber.
It’s not as if Andrews has become a focal point of the Baltimore passing offense. Before Week 6, when his hot streak began, Andrews was being targeted on 16% of his pass routes. That’s climbed to 18.5% over the past three weeks. That’s barely worth mentioning. Though Andrews’ red-zone involvement is nice, his spreadsheet-shattering efficiency can’t last.
On his six red-zone targets in 2024, Andrews has a tidy six receptions for four touchdowns. Isaiah Likely, meanwhile, has 10 inside-the-20 looks from Lamar Jackson and seven inside the 10. Also, notably, the team reportedly traded for WR Diontae Johnson on Tuesday. Be careful with Andrews in Week 9 and beyond.
Tucker Kraft (GB)
Kraft is freakish, a born playmaker, Kittle-esque in the chaos with which he plays. Kraft is good, maybe really good, and in a slightly more pass-heavy offense with a slightly more condensed target distribution, he would be dominant. Alas, that’s not his situation in 2024.
Kraft since Week 5 is 22nd in tight end targets (16) and fifth in tight end receiving yards (212). His 17.7 yards per reception ranks first among all tight ends over that span, as does his yards after catch per reception. Kraft is doing that thing that good players do: making the most out of limited opportunities.
Probably you have no choice but to start Kraft, but I wouldn’t rank him among the game’s elite tight ends unless and until he takes on a bigger role in the intentionally spread-out Green Bay passing offense. It’s not as if Kraft is a reliable target commander; he’s seen a target on a meager 14% of his pass routes through Week 8. He’s very much a boom-bust option until further notice.
