Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 7 Fantasy Football

BINGE

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

We have a delightful NFC North matchup on the docket. The Lions are riding high off a demolition of the Cowboys, while the Vikings come into Week 7 off their bye. This one will go a long way to deciding NFC North supremacy. There are so many good games on the slate this week but this is my No. 1 game to watch.

If you have a player in fantasy going in this game, they should make your starting lineup.

The Lions’ running game is absolutely on fire right now. Both Lions running backs rank inside the top five in EPA per rush, per TruMedia. David Montgomery specifically has been on a tear. Despite Gibbs’ significantly higher fantasy ADP this summer, Montgomery leads the team with 85 touches. He only has eight fewer targets than Gibbs and remains an underrated factor in the passing game. The veteran back is 10th in yards after contact per attempt and No. 2 in rushing success rate among backs with 40-plus carries on the season.

Montgomery is an every-week starter in fantasy and it’s easy to see why the Lions’ head coach adores this player.

We’ll get a strength-on-strength matchup in this Week 7 contest as the Vikings rank third in rushing success rate allowed. They rank No. 1 in EPA per dropback allowed, so there is no “right” answer against this defense. How a sharp mind like Ben Johnson wants to attack this Brian Flores defense will be a bit of football joy.

It was successfully glossed over thanks to the Jets’ dysfunction but Sam Darnold’s Week 5 showing was easily the most concerning of this season. Darnold’s 2.91 adjusted net yards per attempt was dramatically lower than what he offered in Weeks 1 to 4 (8.2).

We should still have a high degree of confidence in this Vikings offense given what we saw in the first chapter of the season. Darnold will always have shaky moments against great competition but Kevin O’Connell is an excellent offensive designer, the players around him are great and Darnold has earned a little benefit of the doubt.

The Lions defense would have been a much more formidable opponent before Aiden Hutchinson’s devastating Week 6 injury. There are plenty of other good players on that defense but Hutchinson was leading the NFL in pressure and is the type of guy you don’t just replace. Expect fantasy fireworks in this game.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Ravens and Buccaneers have allowed the second- and fourth-most passing yards in the NFL, respectively. We could be in store for a high-scoring affair on Monday night.

The Ravens’ passing game is rolling after the last two weeks. Lamar Jackson cleared 300 yards in back-to-back games and activated multiple weapons in this offense. The Bucs defense doesn’t pose a significant challenge, either.

We know at any moment that the Ravens can revert to a run-heavy game plan and put the ball in Derrick Henry’s hands over and over again. However, with the way this game projects, I expect them to throw the ball at a higher rate than usual.

The Bucs play more zone coverage than any other team (82.4% per Fantasy Points Data) and send blitzes. That should push the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands quickly to Zay Flowers on quick-hitting crossing routes over the middle. Some of those single-high zone looks will also push targets to the outside, which brings Rashod Bateman into the fold. The Ravens get multiple tight ends involved but in the receiver room specifically, we know where the ball is going.

The Bucs’ passing offense is straightforward. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have combined for 48.1% of the team’s passing targets. They play different roles and win in different ways, which allows them both to go off in any given week. This is the type of game where both receivers can approach their weekly ceilings.

The big question for Tampa Bay’s offense is what happens in the backfield. Rachaad White missed last week and both of his “backups” outperformed any of his rushing performances of late. Bucky Irving has been a big factor and was already taking over the top gig. Tucker was a bigger shock. After nearly cracking 200 total yards, it was a breakout game. Head coach Todd Bowles offered up phrases like “three-headed monster” and “hot hand” in reaction to Tucker’s game.

It’s impossible to know how this group will split up the work going into Week 7 and it’s not a good matchup on paper. At the same time, we could come out of this game with more clues about how to project the backfield going forward.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

How the Packers try to beat the Texans defense is one of the most fascinating matchups of the weekend. Jordan Love has been susceptible to blitzes this year and while Houston isn’t a top blitzing team, DeMeco Ryans hasn’t shied away from sending timely extra pressure.

This might be a week we see it more.

Even if the Texans don’t send extra pressure, they have two edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson who can wreck a game plan on their own. With that in mind, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft should pile up targets on layup routes. Reed as the slot receiver is often the first-read on concepts and Kraft has a 3.2 aDOT. Getting Kraft in space to make plays in the YAC department will be a priority.

Also, expect Matt LaFleur to get creative on play-action shots with Reed and Christian Watson over the middle. The Texans are a bottom-three team defending play-action this year and employ a hyper-aggressive group at linebacker.

On the other side, the Texans passing game wasn’t as explosive but they were steady in the absence in the absence of Nico Collins. Tank Dell was the biggest beneficiary.

Dell led the team with a 31% target share and he turned that into seven catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. He still doesn’t separate at the level we saw last year nor is he as explosive out of his breaks. However, he is still a good receiver and has C.J. Stroud’s trust. Week 6 was Dell’s best day of the season. In addition to the targets, he saw a pair of looks in the end zone in this game and was used at multiple receiver spots.

Even if he’s not 100%, both Dell and Stefon Diggs are must-starts in fantasy. The Packers rank 30th in dropback success rate allowed this year.

STREAM

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs will return from the bye and are hoping to get Xavier Worthy more involved. The rookie has only been targeted on 15.1% of his routes. He just hasn’t been used on base NFL routes much or in the intermediate area at all. While Worthy has hit some big plays, the Chiefs have a 42.9% offensive success rate when throwing him the ball this year, by far the worst of their main pass-catchers. Andy Reid is well-known for his work coming out of bye weeks and finding ways to unleash Worthy as a legit wide receiver, not just a gadget man, has to be the main priority. Until we see that usage, Worthy isn’t a fantasy starter.

Most important 49ers storyline: Brock Purdy’s 132.9 passer rating on play-action throws leads the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. And yet, Purdy’s 19.3% play-action rate is the fifth-fewest among quarterbacks who have taken at least half of their team’s dropbacks this year. That’s a far cry from what we usually see out of Shanahan offenses. Purdy was inside the top 15 last season. We’ve seen Purdy play extremely well this season but it’s been in a bit more of a chaos mode than it needs to be with a significantly higher degree of difficulty than we’re used to seeing for the 49ers. It’s great he can do that but one has to wonder why it needs to be this way. Perhaps coming out of a “mini-bye” following a Week 6 Thursday Night Football win, the coaching staff will have gone back to the drawing board to smooth out the kinks of this offense.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Most important Seahawks storyline: Geno Smith leads the NFL in pass attempts, completions and yards. Despite that, he ranks just 19th in touchdowns and 16th in completions of 10-plus yards. The passing game for the Seahawks has felt tight despite all of the volume. I don’t think they want to air it out as often as they have during the first chapter of the season; they’ve just been pushed that way because of the game script and matchups. This would be an ideal week to course correct. Atlanta has some standout players in the secondary but ranks a mere 30th in rushing success rate allowed. If the Seahawks want to take a little pressure off of Smith and the passing game, saddling up Walker for 15-plus carries could work against the Falcons.

Most important Falcons storyline: Fantasy managers will just have to learn to live with the fact that Tyler Allgeier is not going away. Sorry for your Bijan Robinson bags; Allgeier is too effective to eliminate entirely. Among running backs with 50-plus carries on the season, Allgeier ranks sixth in EPA per rush, just behind both Lions backs and Derrick Henry, and Allgeier leads the NFL in rushing success rate. He’s one of the most efficient backs in the NFL. He and David Montgomery are the only backs with a success rate north of 50%. Much like Montgomery in Detroit, he will continue to slice away at the ceiling of a 2023 first-round running back.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Most important Eagles storyline: The Eagles got their guys back last Sunday and that was one of the few things that went right for them. It’s not a great look to escape a matchup with the hapless Browns by merely winning 20-16 if you fancy yourself a real contender. The Eagles’ best course of action in the passing game is throwing to A.J. Brown against man coverage. Per TruMedia, Brown has been targeted on 45% of his routes against zone coverage, fourth-most in the NFL, and 23.3% of his routes against zone. Brown is one of the premier man-beaters in the game and Jalen Hurts often takes those single-coverage shots to him downfield. The Giants don’t play a ton of man but they’ve been wrecked when they go to it. New York allows the most fantasy points per dropback in man coverage (0.81) this season, per Fantasy Points Data.

Most important Giants storyline: The Giants will get Malik Nabers back in this game after missing two weeks in the concussion protocol. Despite that time off, Nabers still ranks ninth in the NFL in targets. During Nabers’ time away from the offense, the Giants have gotten some good play from guys like Darius Slayton and Tyrone Tracy Jr. In the first four weeks of the season, the Giants’ passing game revolved around feeding Nabers along with Mickey Mouse targets to Wan’Dale Robinson. Nabers had as many or more targets as the Giants scored points in three of their first four games. That’s not what you want; every team needs ancillary threats. Nabers should remain the featured player of this attack but they should also use his presence to open things up for some of the supporting receivers. Guys like Slayton reminded the Giants the last few games he’s still a useful player.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders

Most important Panthers storyline: The Panthers sit at 1-5 with their season slowly slipping away. Any sort of “bump” they originally got from inserting Andy Dalton has mostly faded. You have to wonder if the organization is considering going back to Bryce Young soon. My guess is that Young is done in Carolina almost regardless of what happens the rest of the season but continuing to start the 36-year-old Dalton is a tough sell for a team looking at another year of rebuilding. The only reason you don’t go back to Young is if you think he just cannot functionally run an NFL offense; anyone watching the first two games of film would be ready to testify to that reality. Putting a guy like that back under center will not allow you to evaluate the other players on the roster. We all know which quarterback fantasy gamers want to see under center.

Most important Commanders storyline: The Commanders’ ground game was one of the most devastating units in the NFL to start the season. The last two games against better defenses in Cleveland and Baltimore were pitched as tests for Jayden Daniels and yet, it’s been the rushing attack that’s fallen off. The Commanders rank 21st in rushing success rate the last two weeks. Some of that is the competition and Brian Robinson Jr. missing time but it’s something to monitor as we’ve seen Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses start hot and stumble at the mid-point of the season before. For now, I’m betting this is a blip. This is a get-right spot for the run game with Robinson getting healthy and a matchup against a hapless Panthers defense.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Most important Jets storyline: Davante Adams is now a member of the New York Jets. He’s also suddenly fully healthy after dealing with a hamstring injury during his final few weeks with Las Vegas. We should expect Adams to be up to speed quickly considering his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers and the offensive concepts.

With Adams in town, my projection places both Garrett Wilson and the veteran receiver in the boom/bust WR2 territory. They’re guys you start every single week. While analysts likely never ranked them inside the top 10 going into the week, either has a chance to get there. Wilson currently holds the NFL lead with 67 targets. He’s bound to cede some of those looks to Adams but even if he’s an eight-target per game player rather than 11, that’s enough to keep Wilson afloat if Adams’ presence makes the offense more efficient.

Most important Steelers storyline: The Steelers are likely to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields in Week 7. While Fields was playing well enough to keep the job, this organization signed Wilson to start and is well-known to back veterans to a fault. Wilson hasn’t been an above-average starter since 2020 but the Steelers don’t plan to ask much from their starting quarterback. My guess is they want to see Wilson play a variety of safe football as the starter; keep the train on the tracks and don’t turn the ball over. In fairness, that’s about what he did in Denver last year, even if that leaves so much upside on the table.

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

Most important Chargers storyline: We got some good signal on a pair of Chargers rookies last week. Ladd McConkey didn’t pop in fantasy because he left the game with injuries a couple of times but he still led the team with 30 routes, seven targets and a 38.6% share of the air yards. I remain bullish on McConkey over the long haul even if this offense will never truly push the ball much in the pass game.

Rookie running back Kimani Vidal stepped in for Gus Edwards after he was placed on IR. Vidal was second behind J.K. Dobbins in snap share among the running backs at 24% and made a big play in the passing game. Vidal is one injury away from being fantasy-relevant. Both guys will play against a generous Cardinals defense in Week 7.

Most important Cardinals storyline: The Cardinals offense has become the source of fantasy panic in recent weeks. They were a sleeper team in the offseason but if you recall the realistic expectations for this squad, it doesn’t look like Arizona is too far off course.

The Cardinals have dealt with some tougher defenses in the first chapter of the season. Even this week against a Chargers team that surprisingly ranks second in EPA per play allowed isn’t the spot to launch up expectations. The Chargers play zone coverage at the second-highest rate and two-high at the third-highest. This will be a game where Kyler Murray has to be patient and work underneath. Let’s hope we see Marvin Harrison Jr. running more base routes over the middle instead of sideline shots at X-receiver, if he’s cleared from the concussion protocol.

SKIP

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)

One reason to maybe watch: The Drake Maye to Demario Douglas connection has staying power. Maye said this week, “You can’t guard him in a phone booth,” when talking about his favorite target.

Maye once had a beautiful rapport with Josh Downs back at UNC. Downs is a better pure player but both guys win on the interior. Douglas is a bit of an odd player in that he’s a man-coverage-beating specialist as a pure slot receiver. However, that could come in handy this week. The Jaguars play man coverage at the third-highest rate, per Fantasy Points Data, but give up the second-most points per dropback among teams who play man on more than 30% of their defensive snaps.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

One reason to maybe watch: The Bengals offense remains one of the more enjoyable units in the NFL and is a fascinating matchup with this Browns defense. Giants coordinator Shane Bowen broke from his norm last week and played hard doubles on Ja’Marr Chase, which allowed Tee Higgins to get some single coverage looks. Chase won’t find those types of double-coverage glances this week. Cleveland, under Jim Schwartz, has largely just played their game and hoped their guys can beat yours. The Browns use single-high coverage on 73% of their plays, per Fantasy Points Data, by far the most in the NFL. They allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per dropback on single-high snaps. This could be an eruption spot for one or both of the Bengals’ perimeter receivers.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

One reason to maybe watch: Anthony Richardson will likely make his return from an oblique injury. The fantasy world has already assumed this is a net negative for an intriguing group of Colts receivers. Joe Flacco is the perfect man to keep the offense afloat but he also had his fair share of misses and turnovers, even if he was more stable than Richardson. The Colts need to develop the former fourth-overall pick in the draft, so he needs to be out there. We also have barely seen Richardson on the field simultaneously with a fully activated Josh Downs, who might be the team’s best receiver. Their connection matters a lot in projecting Richardson going forward.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

One reason to maybe watch: Let’s see what the Bills’ plan for Amari Cooper in his first game with the team. Cooper may not be a full-time player in Week 7, and likely won’t make my top-30 fantasy receivers this week. This is a brand-new quarterback and offensive system for Cooper, so he may not just jump right into the mix. However, his effectiveness on just a handful of in-breaking routes on their play-action concepts could lead to some deep shot plays.

It’s also worth noting who Cooper takes reps from on the outside. Cooper has played a ton of X-receiver in the Browns offense, which is where Keon Coleman has lined up for Buffalo. He also has experience as a flanker from his Dallas days. Mack Hollins has been that guy for Buffalo. It’s unlikely Khalil Shakir loses reps in the slot to Cooper, nor should he.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams

One reason to maybe watch: It sounds like Cooper Kupp could return in Week 7. Per Fantasy Points Data, the veteran wideout still ranks No. 1 in first-read target share with an outrageous 52% share of the first-read targets. Despite facing an absurd amount of injuries the Rams are still third in offensive success rate overall. They rank No. 1 in rushing success rate and 11th in dropback success rate. Matthew Stafford has gotten the most out of guys like Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell in the absence of his top receivers. Those guys should remain supporting characters but Kupp will walk into the lead role. The Rams’ next four games are: this week against the Raiders, then they’ll face the Vikings, Seahawks and Dolphins. Puka Nacua may not be too far off from a return and this group has stayed afloat in his absence.