When Zach Johnson shot a 62 in the opening round of the 2024 American Express PGA Tour event, most casual golf fans might have assumed that Johnson would easily hold the lead in the tournament.
But at The American Express, where low scoring is a daily occurrence, Johnson’s round at La Quinta Country Club was only good for a share of the lead on that course. Alex Noren also shot 10-under 62 at La Quinta Country Club. And inevitably in the desert’s PGA Tour event, those rounds of 62 weren’t even the low round at La Quinta Country Club for the week.
Then-amateur Nick Dunlap scorched the course for a 12-under 60 in the third round on his way to The American Express title with a score of 29-under 259, in itself a record for the tournament since changing to a 72-hole format in 2012.
The scoring in 2024 was certainly no fluke. As scoring on the PGA Tour has trended lower, so has the scoring at The American Express. The desert event saw plenty of scoring of 30-under par or lower when the tournament was a five-day, 90-hole event, with a record of 36-under by Joe Durant in 2001. But now 30 under seems to be under attack for just 72 holes. In the opening tournament of the 2025 PGA Tour year, Hideki Matsuyama set a PGA Tour 72-hole scoring record of 35-under par.
What could the low-scoring American Express tournament provide next week at three courses in La Quinta? Here’s some possibilities:
More: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler withdraws from American Express golf tournament after hand surgery
30-under par
To reach 30-under par for four rounds on the three desert courses, each a par-72, a golfer must average 64.5 shots per round, or 7.5 shots under par each day. That looks like an impossible number, but remember that among the top 11 finishers in the 2024 tournament, there were eight rounds of 63 or better, including Dunlap’s 60 and rounds of 61 by Justin Thomas and Sam Burns. Those kinds of low rounds provide a little cushion for a player to shoot a 66 or 67 and still stay on pace to get to 30-under par.
A 59
The one thing that didn’t happen in 2024 was a round of 59 in the tournament. While there have been two sub-60 rounds in the tournament’s history, the last of those rounds came in the third round of the 2017 tournament by Adam Hadwin at La Quinta Country Club. Hadwin’s round came 18 years after David Duval’s famous 59 in the final round of the 1999 tournament, though Duval’s round was at the Palmer Course at PGA West, a course no longer in the rotation of the tournament. Any year is a good year for a 59 at The American Express.
A Stadium Course record
When amateur Charlie Reiter of Palm Desert shot a 9-under 63 on the Pete Dye Stadium Course in the final round of the 2019 tournament, it was a stunning round that set the tournament record on the demanding layout. That record lasted just three years, with Patrick Cantlay shooting a 61 on the course in the final round of the 2022 event to finish in second place. Last year, Cantlay’s record was matched by Justin Thomas in the third round, with Keith Mitchell shooting a 62 in the final round on the Stadium Course. It’s difficult to envision a round of 60 or even 59 at the Stadium Course, particularly with the course undergoing renovations of green complexes last summer that should make scoring tougher. But 10 years ago no one could have imagined a 61 as the course record, either.
13-under cut line
In 2024, a golfer had to be 13 under through 54 holes just to earn the right to play in the final round. That matched the lowest cut in the tournament since the change to a 72-hole tournament with a 54-hole cut in 2014. It meant a player had to average just a shade under 68 shots per round for the first three days to qualify for Sunday’s round. If the weather remains good all week and with traditionally pristine course conditions including smooth greens, 14 under for the cut is likely.
Who will win the tournament and which scoring records could be threatened or broken won’t be known until the event ends Jan. 19. But recent history shows that scoring is going lower on the PGA Tour, and that’s true at The American Express as well.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: American Express PGA Tour event could be site of record scoring in 2025
