College Basketball Best Bets Today:
Now this is more like it. We’ve got 66 college basketball games for today and zero Division I vs. lower-division contests. This is when the season really begins for a lot of bettors and observers, as we’ve made it through most of the bowl games and college basketball is into the conference play portion of the season almost exclusively.
It is also nice to see a lot of evening and late games back on the card to give me a few more choices for the purposes of this article. Remember, students aren’t really going to be back on campus until next week, so home-court advantage is still much smaller than normal and teams will have to create their own energy, especially those coming off of a long break.
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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Lipscomb Bisons (-5.5, 140.5) at Jacksonville Dolphins
7 p.m. ET
Atlantic Sun Conference play opens up for Lipscomb and Jacksonville. I have to think Lipscomb is ready to be on the warpath in league play after getting bounced in their first A-Sun Tournament game by North Alabama. The Bisons won 84-82 over the Dolphins in the lone regular season meeting last year, but this is a far stronger defensive team this season.
It certainly helps to have Jacob Ognacevic back, as he missed all of last season due to injury. He’s got 19.3 PPG and 7.3 RPG so far this season and is coming off of a season-high four blocks against Middle Tennessee in the team’s last game against a Division I opponent. Lipscomb hammered Asbury on Sunday to shake off some rust, while Jacksonville hasn’t played since Dec. 21 against UCF in a 20-point loss.
The handicap is pretty simple here. Jacksonville has allowed a 45.4% shot share on Close Twos, while Lipscomb has allowed a 32.6% shot share with the Bisons 42nd in the nation in that department and the Dolphins 346th. To make matters worse, Jacksonville is also 340th in Close Two FG% on offense. Lipscomb is a top-50 unit. Jacksonville is also tied for the most dunk attempts allowed in the nation with 59.
Jacksonville also has a ton of empty possessions with a 22.6% TO% on offense. They’ve forced a lot of turnovers, but the Bisons are a top-100 team when it comes to taking care of the ball. I’d expect better shot selection and efficiency from the road favorite and probably some extra possessions as well.
Pick: Lipscomb -5.5
Western Illinois Leathernecks at SIU Edwardsville Cougars (-8, 134)
9 p.m. ET
You down with the OVC? Yeah, you know me. SIU Edwardsville welcomes Western Illinois to town for the first game of 2025 for each team. These are two bad basketball teams coming together and we’re likely to see some pretty poor shooting numbers both ways. And that’s why I think Western Illinois can keep it close.
The Leathernecks are 350th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik, so they clearly move at a slow pace. Neither team forces a lot of turnovers, so we shouldn’t have an artificially-inflated pace or a lot of run-outs for easy buckets here. We’re likely to have two teams bogged down in the halfcourt.
Western Illinois’s defensive efficiency numbers are awful for two reasons. The first is their low TO%. The second is that teams that run really good offenses and make a ton of shots hung big numbers on them. Green Bay (1.282 points per possession) is a laughingstock on defense, but they are a top-100 offense by eFG% and a top-50 offense in 2P%. Northern Iowa (1.309 PPP) is one of the best offenses in the country, ranking in the top 25 in 2P% and 3P% and top 10 in eFG%. South Dakota (1.310 PPP) has one of the lowest TO% in the nation and good shot selection.
SIU Edwardsville has none of those things. Torvik has them 290th in eFG% and they are 295th in 2P%. They’re also 350th in the nation in FT% at 63.3%. If they need to add on late, I’m not sure that they can to cover a pretty hefty number.
Pick: Western Illinois +8
Illinois Fighting Illini at Oregon Ducks (-4.5, 154.5)
10 p.m. ET
We’ve got a mammoth game in the Big Ten between Illinois and Oregon. I typically don’t get involved in major-conference games like this, but I see an angle that I like and I’m going to explore it.
These are two outstanding teams on both ends of the floor, but I think it’s pretty clear that both teams are better on defense than they are on offense. Illinois is taking a 3-pointer on 51% of their shot attempts and sit right on the national average at 33.4%. In six games against Top 100 competition as defined by Torvik, the Illini are shooting just 31.6% from 3. This game certainly qualifies against Oregon.
Using Torvik’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus metric, there are three Fighting Illini players in the top 12, including 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic. He’ll be the one tasked with going up against 7-footer Nate Bittle, who typically doesn’t have an adversary to match up against. Bittle has accounted for 15 of Oregon’s 35 dunks and leads the team with 55 Close Two shot attempts. While he’s been more efficient than expected away from the rim, shooting 51.4% on Farther Twos as defined by Torvik, I don’t think that’s the game he necessarily wants to play. He only played six games last season, but was 3-for-10 on those shots and 11-of-35 on those two seasons ago when he played 28 games.
Speaking of DBPM, Oregon has three players in the top 136, including Bittle. Illinois only has a 31% shot share on Close Twos. They’ve held opponents to 29.8% thanks in large part to Ivisic. I expect a lot of jump shots in this game and both teams are in the top 25 in 3P% defense and top 60 in Farther Two FG%.
Illinois is top 25 in adjusted tempo for Torvik and 28th for KenPom, but I think that’s a bit of an inflated number and I’d expect Dana Altman’s crew to slow this game down.
Pick: Under 154.5
