We’re getting closer and closer to the first official College Football Playoff rankings.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we are be laying out the projected playoff field each week ahead of the first rankings release on Nov. 5.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like at the halfway point of the 2024 season.
First-round byes
1. Texas (6-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns kept their No. 1 ranking with their 34-3 destruction of rival Oklahoma in Dallas. Texas scored the final 34 points of the game after Oklahoma took a 3-0 lead in the first quarter. It’ll be a little tougher for the Longhorns in Week 8 as Georgia visits Austin in what could be a preview of the SEC championship game. Texas will need a better start to the game from Quinn Ewers in that one. He was a bit rusty to start against the Sooners.
2. Oregon (6-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ducks move up into the top four for the first time this season after their 32-31 win over Ohio State. Oregon did just enough on defense thanks to an ingenious penalty in the waning seconds and QB Dillon Gabriel showed why he became the summer Heisman favorite after transferring to Oregon. Gabriel threw for two scores and also ran for another.
3. Miami (6-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes were off in Week 7 and have a tricky road contest coming up in Week 8. Miami heads to Louisville for a Noon ET kickoff. The Cardinals have been very good against top opponents at home under Jeff Brohm. We’re anticipating some trickeration from Brohm’s offense at some point in this game.
4. Iowa State (6-0, projected Big 12 champion)
Iowa State didn’t make things dramatic in Morgantown in Week 7. The Cyclones led 14-10 at halftime and scored the first 14 points of the fourth quarter to take a three-possession lead with 4:42 to go in the 28-16 victory. Carson Hansen rushed for three touchdowns and Rocco Becht continues to be a quietly efficient passer.
First-round games
No. 12 Boise State (5-1, projected MWC champion) vs. No. 5. Penn State (6-0, at-large)
This would be a very fun battle of running games. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is averaging 9.9 yards a carry and is the midseason favorite for the Heisman. PSU’s creative run game averages over five yards a carry as both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have each rushed for over 400 yards this season. Penn State TE Tyler Warren had 17 catches for 224 yards in the Nittany Lions’ overtime win over USC. Harrison Wallace III is the team’s second-leading receiver. He has 17 catches all season.
No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (5-1, at-large)
This game is a deviation from the current AP rankings as an example of what the committee may end up doing at the end of the season. Tennessee is set to play Georgia later this season, plays Alabama in Week 8 and the Bulldogs have already lost to the Crimson Tide. The Vols are ranked ahead of LSU in the AP Top 25, but that’d mean a rematch with Georgia in this set of playoff projections. A road trip to Columbus isn’t much further than Athens, either.
No. 10 LSU (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 7 Georgia (5-1, at-large)
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is now the sixth-leading passer in the country after the Tigers’ overtime win over Ole Miss. Nussmeier threw the game-winning TD pass to Kyren Lacy after Ole Miss kicked a field goal and he’s thrown for 1,989 yards and 18 TDS already this season. He’s also taken just two sacks. Georgia’s Carson Beck has become the focal point of the offense for the Bulldogs this season, but he’s not been as efficient as he was in 2023. Beck is completing a smaller percentage of his passes, is averaging 0.8 yards fewer per throw and is one interception away from tying his total from all of last season.
No. 9 Clemson (5-1, at-large) vs. No. 8 Alabama (5-1, at-large)
A renewal of the Clemson-Alabama rivalry in the first round of the expanded playoff would feel right. The Tigers have scored at least 40 points in four of their last five gams as the offense is clearly back on track after that ugly Week 1 performance. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe continues to be the catalyst for the Crimson Tide’s attack and will need to avoid turning the ball over against Tennessee. Milroe had an interception and a fumble in the loss to Vanderbilt and threw two interceptions in Saturday’s too-close-for-comfort win over South Carolina.
