Who is the best team in the SEC?
You can make a credible case for a handful of teams after Week 11. No. 16 Ole Miss beat No. 3 Georgia 28-10 in Oxford hours before No. 11 Alabama went on the road and easily dispatched No. 15 LSU 42-13.
You surely remember that Georgia beat Texas on the road earlier this season. Alabama beat Georgia. And Ole Miss now has a win over Georgia but has losses to Kentucky and LSU.
The top of the SEC is a mess. The race for the conference title could get really, really tricky. And that will affect the College Football Playoff, too. Four SEC teams were in the projected playoff bracket in Tuesday’s inaugural rankings reveal.
After this weekend, there is a plausible scenario where either Texas or Texas A&M finishes the regular season at 7-1 in the conference and there are up to seven teams tied for second place at 6-2.
As you can imagine, there’s no real way to solve a six- or seven-way tie. Especially in a conference that doesn’t have divisions and that’s too big for every team to play each other. The 16-team SEC could be showing us this season what tiebreaker life will look like in the college football era of mega conferences.
In case you were wondering, the SEC’s tiebreaker rules run six tiers deep. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record and the second is the tied teams’ record against common opponents. That second tiebreaker will probably be enough to break a tie. But in case it isn’t, the record against the best common conference opponent or opponents is the third tiebreaker and the best winning percentage of conference opponents is the fourth.
That fourth tiebreaker could end up being the one that matters too.
So how could this scenario work? Let’s lay it out for you.
LSU (6-3 overall, 3-2 SEC)
The Tigers need to win all three of these games and will be favored in all of them. It’s very plausible they could win out. Florida was dominated by Texas on Saturday and dropped to 4-5 on the season. Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina on Saturday and Oklahoma lost a wild game to Missouri.
Missouri (7-2, 3-2)
The Tigers somehow got a 30-23 win over Oklahoma on Saturday in a wild fourth quarter. Each team had a go-ahead fumble return for a touchdown inside the final two minutes of the game and Missouri DL Zion Young’s fumble recovery with 22 seconds to go provided the winning margin.
Mizzou is going to be an underdog at South Carolina and will likely need starting QB Brady Cook back on the field to have a chance in that game. The other two are very winnable. Like LSU, Mizzou needs three wins over the next three weeks.
Alabama (7-2, 4-2)
The Crimson Tide are going to be significant favorites in both of these games. Oklahoma and Auburn have a combined SEC record of 2-10. We can lightly pencil Alabama in at 6-2 in the conference with two wins.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
The Rebels got their biggest win of the Lane Kiffin era on Saturday vs. the Bulldogs. And they too will be heavy favorites in the final two weeks of the season after having a bye in Week 12. It’ll be a surprise if Ole Miss isn’t 6-2 in the conference.
Georgia (7-2, 5-2)
The Bulldogs are one of just two teams in the SEC who have just one conference game remaining. A win over Tennessee in Week 12 will make Georgia the first team at 6-2 and they’ll be watching the conference race unfold over the final two weeks of the season.
Texas (8-1, 4-1)
The Longhorns will be big favorites in the first two games before what could be a winner-take-all game vs. Texas A&M in the last week of the season. If both Texas and Texas A&M enter the final week of the season at 6-1 in the conference, the winner is guaranteed a spot in the SEC title game.
Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)
The Aggies and Longhorns will play that game for the first time since Texas A&M was a member of the Big 12 in 2011. Texas A&M was off on Saturday before a game against New Mexico State in Week 12 and will be favored on the road against Auburn.
Tennessee (8-1, 5-1)
Tennessee’s scenario is simple as well. If the Vols win both of those games, they’re in the SEC title game likely against the winner of Texas and Texas A&M. If they lose one, then the tiebreaker chaos scenario we outlined above could be in full effect. And unless you’re a Tennessee fan, don’t you want chaos?
A complicating factor for Tennessee’s path to the SEC title could be the health of QB Nico Iamaleava. He left Saturday’s win over Mississippi State at halftime because of what the school said was an upper body injury, though coach Josh Heupel said after the game that Iamaleava’s absence was precautionary.
Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.
Winners
UCLA: The Bruins are on a three-game win streak after taking down Iowa 20-17. UCLA dropped five straight games after opening the season at Hawaii with a win and now has a decent shot at bowl eligibility with three games to go. Friday night’s win was ugly; each team turned the ball over three times and UCLA was penalized nine times to Iowa’s two. But the Bruins rushed for 211 yards and Ethan Garbers threw two TDs.
Cal: The Bears got their first ACC win ever with a 46-36 win over Wake Forest on Friday night. Fernando Mendoza threw for 385 yards and two scores while also rushing 10 times for 51 yards and a TD. The Golden Bears are 5-4 after a midseason four-game losing streak and should get bowl eligible with a home game against Stanford remaining on the schedule.
Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks avoided disaster on Saturday. Jacksonville State trailed by six to Louisiana Tech late in the fourth quarter and hit a 49-yard Hail Mary as time expired when Tyler Huff found Cam Vaughn in the end zone. JSU was set up for a walk-off win, right? Nope. The PAT missed and the game went to overtime. Tre Stewart’s 11-yard TD run in OT ended up being the game-winning score as Louisiana Tech failed to score on its possession.
Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are heading to back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade after their 28-23 upset win over Miami. The win moved Georgia Tech to 6-4 as the Yellow Jackets used their run game to great effect against the Hurricanes. The defense also came up huge, as Miami failed to convert its first three fourth-down attempts and Cam Ward was strip-sacked with less than two minutes to go.
Losers
Iowa State: The No. 17 Cyclones have gone from being undefeated and atop the Big 12 to needing some help to make the Big 12 title game in a span of two weeks. A week after losing to Texas Tech at home, Iowa State lost 45-36 at Kansas on Saturday. Iowa State’s defense gave up 532 yards to the Jayhawks as Jalon Daniels looked like the player he was in 2022. ISU has games left vs. Cincinnati, Utah and Kansas State. That game vs. the Wildcats could mean a lot, but Colorado has to lose for it to matter.
Pitt: The No. 18 Panthers likely lost out on a shot at the ACC title with a 24-19 home loss to Virginia on Saturday night. The Cavaliers scored 14 straight points in the third quarter to take the lead and hang on for the rest of the game. Pitt QB Eli Holstein had to leave the game in the third quarter due to an injury and his replacement Nate Yarnell threw two interceptions in the second half as he was just 4-of-12 for 44 yards.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats are also on a two-game losing streak after a 31-24 home loss to West Virginia. QB Brendan Sorsby threw an interception and fumbled twice as the Bearcats allowed 17 points in the second quarter. After a terrible first season in the Big 12, Cincinnati is firmly in the middle of the conference and needs just one win to make a bowl game. But the final three games of the season are against Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU.
Oregon State: Life in the temporary Pac-12 is much better for Washington State than it is for Oregon State. The Beavers dropped to 4-5 overall after a 24-13 home loss to San Jose State on Saturday. SJSU QB Walker Eget threw for 395 yards on just 18-of-35 passing as Nick Nash had six catches for 161 yards and Justin Lockhart had five grabs for 128 yards. It’s fair to say that Oregon State really needed to beat the Spartans to have a realistic chance at a bowl game. The Beavers have Air Force, Washington State and Boise State remaining on their schedule. They’ll be underdogs in the last two matchups.
