Everyone knows that elections always have winners and losers. However, the list isn’t limited only to political candidates and their supporters. Stocks can be affected by election results, too.
UBS recently evaluated the potential impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The investment bank says it expects that U.S. stocks will fall “by around 10%” if Trump is elected and implements his steep across-the-board tariffs.
But some industries could be hit harder than others. Could these three stocks be in trouble if Trump wins in November?
Retail was the first sector identified by UBS as potentially experiencing the biggest effect from Trump’s proposed tariffs. Many retailers import a high percentage of the products they sell, and tariffs are basically a sales tax on these products.
Retailers have two options, neither of which is good. They can absorb the higher costs. Or they can pass the higher costs along to their customers, which could cause the customers to reduce their spending.
Target (NYSE: TGT) could especially feel the sting of Trump’s tariffs. The company ranks as one of the largest U.S. retailers. A large portion of the products it sells are imported, and China is its biggest source of merchandise. That’s problematic because Trump has singled out the country for high tariffs of at least 60%.
What might Target do if Trump wins and implements his tariffs? The company stated in its latest 10-K regulatory filing that additional tariffs could cause it to raise prices and/or look for alternative vendors. It added, “Any of these actions could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.”
Perhaps the greatest concern for Target in a higher-tariff environment is that its customers could decide to shop elsewhere. Some of its competitors, notably including Walmart, already often offer lower prices than Target.
Auto manufacturing was the second industry singled out by UBS as being especially jeopardized by Trump’s proposed tariffs. Carmakers with operations in Mexico could be hurt more than others because the former president has threatened to impose a 2,000% tariff on vehicles made in the country.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) is one of the Big Three U.S. automakers. Roughly 12% of the company’s long-lived assets (notably including plants and equipment) are in Mexico, the only country that represents more than 10% other than the U.S. The percentage of those long-lived assets in Mexico has increased in recent years.
Could GM shift production to the U.S. to minimize the harm of the tariffs? Yes, but that’s easier said than done. The company would have to spend a lot of money to build new factories in the U.S. This process would also take time.
