Lee Carsley’s chances of becoming the permanent England manager appeared to take a hit with Friday’s loss to Greece – but it was not for nothing that he was given the chance to impress.
Recent success by national teams that have promoted from within means appointing him may remain an appealing prospect for many at the Football Association.
Carsley, who led England Under-21s to the European title last year, has stepped up to replace Gareth Southgate for the six Nations League group games in 2024.
After two wins in September, the job was considered Carsley’s to lose in many circles, but a no-striker experiment in the 2-1 Wembley defeat by Greece may have damaged those prospects.
There also remains uncertainty about whether the former Everton midfielder even wants the job full time, with Carsley steadfastly refusing to rule himself in or out of the running.
However, Spain and Argentina have shown what can happen if you promote from within – rather than going for a bigger name.
Luis de la Fuente led Spain to Euro 2024 glory, beating England in the final, and Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina are the world champions and back-to-back Copa America winners.
De la Fuente briefly served as head coach of a then-third tier Alaves in 2011, but that was the biggest club job either he or Scaloni had before managing their nations.
Both were in roles within their national set-ups before being asked to lead.
There are other notable cases, with the most recent winning managers of the Africa Cup of Nations, Oceania’s OFC Cup and the Concacaf Gold Cup all having managed at international youth level before stepping up.
The dilemma for England
Southgate came through the same route as Carsley, being promoted from the under-21 job and leading England initially on an interim basis, although he had previously managed Middlesbrough too.
Carsley’s managerial experience has entailed interim spells at Coventry, Brentford and Birmingham.
While many England fans wanted Southgate to go, criticising perceived negative tactics, he will go down as the country’s second most successful men’s manager ever.
He led the Three Lions to European Championship finals in 2021 and 2024 – losing both – with only Sir Alf Ramsey guiding England to a men’s final before, the 1966 World Cup which remains their only trophy.
“Southgate’s achievements were regarded as vindication for the years of work done in building a national coaching system after he took over permanently in November 2016,” said BBC chief football writer Phil McNulty.
“The idea of promoting from within their system is understandably attractive to the FA as it would be a clear demonstration of its developmental coaching success, following in the footsteps of Spain.
“Carsley’s ascent also appealed to the FA because he has worked so closely with a group of young players at development levels, such as Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Anthony Gordon, Marc Guehi and others. De la Fuente was a similar case in point as he built Spain’s latest powerful team.
“This was all part of the St George’s Park strategy put in place by the FA.”
But some England fans might prefer a bigger name – like Eddie Howe, Graham Potter, the dream albeit unlikely option of Pep Guardiola – or new bookmakers’ favourite Thomas Tuchel.
“Lee Carsley’s ill-fated selection gamble against Greece placed a large boulder in the Football Association’s preferred pathway for the national team manager,” said McNulty.
“It has re-opened the debate as to whether Carsley has the credentials and experience to take England to the 2026 World Cup when the FA would have much preferred a smooth handover of power, with another graduate from the St George’s Park system steeped in what they like to call their DNA at the helm after Southgate.”
De la Fuente gives England first-hand proof the model works
Spain were the outstanding team at Euro 2024 despite not having the household names England did. On paper, perhaps not many of their players would have got in the England team – yet they proved to be a much better team.
The man who made that happen was De la Fuente.
After Spain’s disappointing 2022 World Cup, former Barcelona boss Luis Enrique left his role and was replaced by the then unheralded 61-year-old.
He had spent time managing the Spain U19s, U21s and U23s in the previous nine years.
He has never managed a top-flight club and was sacked by Alaves after just four months.
Six months into his career in the Spain job, they won the Uefa Nations League.
“Spain appointing Luis de la Fuente was a logical decision after Luis Enrique left because the federation was run like a football club,” said Spanish football journalist Guillem Balague.
“Many are now copying that idea.
“The reaction was ‘who is De la Fuente?’ and he sensed that until the Euros. Even at the beginning of the Euros he felt there was a lack of confidence in what he could do even though he had won the Nations League by then.”
De la Fuente had won the U19 and U21 European Championship with Spain.
Among the Euro 2024 heroes who had played in one or both of those winning teams were Rodri, the player of this year’s tournament, joint top scorer Dani Olmo, goalkeeper Unai Simon and Mikel Oyarzabal, the scorer of the winning goal in the final against England.
Balague said: “De la Fuente had players who were important to him in the first team like Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz and Unai Simon and he understands what they can give him. It’s such a valuable asset.
“[He says] ‘I know the personalities, they may not be the best players but I know what they can give me’.”
This serves as food for thought for England, with Carsley fielding six of his U21 European champions in his first three games in charge – including Palmer, Anthony Gordon and Levi Colwill.
Scaloni ends Argentina’s long drought – with three trophies
Scaloni had a solid but unspectacular career as a player – winning seven caps for Argentina – and playing for clubs like Deportivo La Coruna, West Ham and Lazio.
He had been working as the Argentina Under-20 boss, and the assistant to the senior team, when he took charge, initially as caretaker in 2018.
That was his first senior managerial role.
Balague said: “Argentina director Cesar Luis Menotti thought the team needed a new regime and that Scaloni – with the help of other former players who have joined like Walter Samuel and Pablo Aimar – could lead another change.
“He was the only one defending that. It wasn’t part of the tradition or policy but a response to a crisis and then everything worked very well.”
At that stage the country had not won a trophy in 25 years.
In less than six years under Scaloni, Argentina have won the World Cup and two Copa America trophies. He will go down as the man who finally found a way to win at international level with Lionel Messi.
England – if they go down a similar route – will be hoping Carsley could be the man to do that with his array of Premier League stars.
Who else has done it?
The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, which was played earlier this year, was won by the Ivory Coast under Emerse Fae’s leadership.
Fae took over during the tournament after the astonishing sacking of Jean-Louis Gasset following a disappointing group stage.
The former Ivory Coast midfielder had been Gasset’s assistant and was also the country’s under-23 boss alongside that role.
There are other examples, too.
Mexico beat Panama in last year’s Gold Cup final, the continental competition for countries from North and Central America and the Caribbean.
Jaime Lozano was in interim charge after Diego Cocca was sacked just days before the tournament started.
Lozano had managed the Mexico Under-23 team from 2018 to 2021, although he had a spell leading club side Necaxa before his return to the national fold.
New Zealand won this year’s OFC Nations Cup in June with Englishman Darren Bazeley in charge.
The 51-year-old former Wolves and Watford player has been involved in the NZ set-up on and off since 2008, having roles with the U17s, U20s and U23s.
The only continental championship currently held by a manager who could be considered an outside hire is the Asian Cup.
That was won this year by Qatar, whose manager is Tintin Marquez.
He had previously worked with the country’s Aspire Academy but came to the Qatar job in December 2023 after a spell as Al-Wakrah boss.
When Qatar won the previous Asian Cup in 2019, their Spanish coach Felix Sanchez had been their youth-team manager beforehand.
And if the idea of promoting from within and reaping the benefits is stretched to include assistant managers stepping up, then Germany’s 2014 World Cup-winning boss Joachim Low is another to add to the list of success stories.
Does it always work?
Of course, appointing your old youth coach will not always work – but it does seem to produce a good hit rate.
Since 2010, there have been four other instances of national teams from the current Fifa top 20 rankings bringing in their former youth coach to run the senior team – excluding coaches whose previous spell was over a decade earlier.
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Julen Lopetegui had managed Spain’s U19s, U20s and U21s at various intervals between 2010 and 2014 before a two-year spell as Porto boss. He served as Spain head coach between 2016 and 2018 and was unbeaten in 20 games – before sensationally being sacked on the eve of the World Cup when it emerged he had agreed to take the Real Madrid job afterwards.
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Niko Kovac was promoted from Croatia U21 boss to the top job just before the 2014 World Cup play-offs. He guided his country to the tournament but they went out in the group stages. He was sacked the following year.
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Sergio Batista led Argentina to 2008 Olympic gold before he was promoted to the top job in 2010 – initially as caretaker, taking over from Diego Maradona. He lost his job a year later after Argentina’s Copa America quarter-final exit.
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Hajime Moriyasu has been Japan boss since 2018, promoted from his role as the Olympic team’s coach. Moriyasu was also Japan assistant manager at the 2018 World Cup. He has led the team to the 2019 Asian Cup final and to the 2022 World Cup last 16 after beating Spain and Germany in the group stage.
