We’re less than two weeks away from the start of the regular season – wild, right? Between major trades and injuries piling up, the fantasy basketball ADP markets have been actively shifting, and I’m here to discuss the most significant movers in the past seven days.
Fantasy basketball risers
OG Anunoby – SF/PF, New York Knicks
Overall ADP: 88.1 vs. Last seven days: 81.3
Net change: +6.8
The results of an annual NBA GM survey came out, and Anunoby was voted the second-most versatile defender in the league. That had no bearing on his ADP climb, but it’s cool. The KAT/Randle swap didn’t change his role, so OG’s rise is likely just a market correction. OG will undoubtedly miss games. Still, Anunoby averaged 2.7 stocks with a couple of 3s and decent shooting splits in 23 games with the Knicks — quite useful.
Bogdan Bogdanović – SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks
Overall ADP: 92.8 vs. Last seven days: 86.1
Net change +6.7
The Serbian guard missed the Hawks preseason game on Tuesday to rest after a prolonged summer at the Paris Olympics. Bogdanović is healthy, and like Anunoby, I expect his ADP to continue to trend up as a market calibration. Last season, Bogdanović provided sixth-round value (63rd overall) while primarily coming off the bench. Dejounte Murray’s gone, so he’s in pole position to start at SG. Seizing that opportunity will positively impact Bogdanović’s fantasy stock.
It helps that Bogdanović played well as a starter in 33 games last year, averaging 17.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.9 3s and 1.0 steal per game in 34 minutes. His ADP should be closer to the seventh round than the eighth.
Collin Sexton – PG/SG, Utah Jazz
Overall ADP: 105.4 vs. Last seven days: 93.6
Net change: +11.8
Sexton’s leap feels like a result of an x-rank update a few days ago. His play through two preseason games has been fine but nothing special. The good news is that he’s started in both exhibitions, and Sexton was far more productive when starting than playing in a reserve role last year. His ADP is a reasonable cost, but I’d be surprised if he creeps higher than the eighth round.
Amen Thompson – SG/SF, Houston Rockets
Overall ADP: 120.6 vs. Last seven days: 116.8
Net change: +3.8
Dillon Brooks’ starting gig is officially on notice after Amen Thompson’s preseason debut. It was clear from the onset that Thompson looked every bit the part of a player who should be in the first unit. The Rockets played at a dizzying pace, and Thompson was one of the primary reasons. He pushed the pace in transition, got to the basket at will and finished with 13 points (6-8 FG, 1-1 FT) with three boards, one assist and two steals.
I try not to overreact too much to preseason ball, but this is one of those moments where the eye test is too glaring. Thompson’s athleticism, defense and feel for the game look heightened in his second season. It’s only a matter of time before he closes the gap on the SF minutes. Thompson’s current ADP is modest, so he could be one of the early steals of the draft season.
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Biggest fallers
Mark Williams – C, Charlotte Hornets
Overall ADP: 88.9 vs. Last seven days: 97.5
Net change: -8.6
Williams strained a tendon in his left foot and will be out for at least two weeks. Given what transpired with his back issues last season, it’s understandable that Williams’ ADP is sliding. Being hurt before the season is underway is no bueno. Hopefully, we will hear some positive developments as we inch closer to the season, but the injury profile warrants the dip.
Kawhi Leonard – SG/SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers
Overall ADP: 40.3 vs. Last seven days: 45.2
Net change: -4.9
We can’t be surprised Kawhi’s ADP is moving south after hearing he had offseason knee surgery. He’s taking it day by day, and while he says he feels good, fantasy basketball managers are rightfully skittish about selecting him before the fourth round. I’d be down to take him in the fifth round—any earlier, and it becomes too hard to justify selecting Leonard with so many other healthy players on the board.
Devin Vassell – SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs
Overall ADP: 77.9 vs. Last seven days: 84.1
Net change: -6.2
The Spurs calling Vassell’s foot injury “rare” is interesting; that’s definitely a word that gives me pause. However, the third-year wing has been practicing in a limited fashion, which is encouraging for Vassell’s fantasy prospects. He’ll be re-evaluated at the beginning of November, so he’s on track to miss at least five games to start the year. That’s not an excessive amount of time missed, so if Vassell falls a round or two lower than ADP, I’d draft him for the upside.
