These terms get thrown around in the fantasy industry like sleeper, bust and breakouts. They’re there to put labels on players based on their value. We’ll dive into breakouts for this piece, which essentially means a young player who could take the next step in their career. There are different levels of breaking out for every player, and we will offer options at every part of the draft. With that in mind, let’s start with some higher-end breakouts!
High-End Breakouts
Jalen Duren (DET)
It’s rare to see such a young player dominate the paint like this guy, but Duren is something special at just 20 years old. It’s hard to believe this kid is only scratching the surface of what he could become, averaging 13.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.8 blocks on 62 percent from the field and 79 percent from the free-throw line last year. That’s quite the sophomore season, and it feels like people are overlooking this big man because he plays in Detroit. However, that adds to his value because he doesn’t have much competition in one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA.
Immanuel Quickley (TOR)
Quickley was always a talented player in New York but needed a change of scenery to become a beast. We saw glimpses of that last season, with Quickley averaging 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.8 threes over the final 38 games. He also shot 85 percent from the free-throw line and 40 percent from three-point range as the primary playmaker for the Raptors. This Toronto team is in the middle of a rebuild, and you better believe that Quickley will do everything in this backcourt because he’s competing with Davion Mitchell, Ja’Kobe Walter and Gradey Dick for minutes and touches.
Josh Giddey (CHI)
It feels weird to call Giddey a breakout, but most basketball fans are sleeping on this guy because he was benched in his final month with OKC. Fans forget how special the Aussie was before that, averaging 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocks in 2022-23. His numbers dropped off a bit last season, but there’s no doubt this 21-year-old can stuff the stat sheet with the best of them. Moving from OKC to Chicago is just what the doctor ordered for Giddey because he should play 35 minutes as the starting point guard and primary playmaker. All he needs to do is return to those sophomore statistics to be a massive value in drafts, but that could be his floor in this newfound situation.
Mid-Round Breakouts
Cam Thomas (BKN)
There seems to be no middle ground when discussing a player like Thomas. Some people think he’s fantastic, and others think he’s terrible. His situation is impossible to overlook because Thomas should be asked to do everything for the Nets. Brooklyn is projected to have the worst record in the NBA, and Thomas might be the only true scorer on this roster. He’s already proven his capability when sharing the court with Mikal Bridges, averaging 22.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.2 threes per game last season. Thomas also shot 44 percent from the field and 86 percent from the free-throw line on high volume. That volume will rise even higher this season, with Thomas likely looking at 20 shots a game. If he can continue his elite scoring and add some playmaking, Thomas could be a massive steal in drafts.
Mark Williams (CHA)
Williams is a very similar player to Duren, with both youngsters dominating their respective frontcourts. The Hornets‘ big man missed most of last season due to a back injury, but he averaged 13.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks on 65 percent shooting in the 17 games before that injury. Duplicating those statistics would make him a great value in drafts, but this 22-year-old could get even better with a full offseason under his belt. We’re certainly not worried about anyone in this Charlotte rotation taking minutes or opportunities away because Nick Richards struggled as a starter last year, while Taj Gibson is a dinosaur.
Keyonte George (UTA)
George is one of those guards who could kill your field goal percentage, but we have high hopes for this sophomore. He took over as the starting point guard in the second half of last season, averaging 16.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 2.4 threes across the final 27 games. Shooting 40 percent from the field is ugly, but his 89 percent mark from the free-throw line should make up for it. Seeing a rookie point guard do that is really encouraging, and you better believe George will run the show for one of the worst backcourts in the NBA. Patty Mills, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton are the only other ball-handling options on this roster, which means George could play 35-40 minutes and take 15-20 shots a game.
Late-Round Breakouts
Brandin Podziemski (GSW)
I wasn’t sure what to expect from Podz when Golden State drafted him, but he was a pleasant surprise in his rookie season. The lefty saw his role skyrocket as the season progressed, averaging 9.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.3 threes on 46 percent shooting over his final 69 games. He carried that form into Summer League, averaging 18.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.5 threes per game. That stat-stuffing excites Warriors fans because there’s some discussion that he’ll take over as the starting shooting guard following Klay Thompson’s departure. The depth of this rotation is slightly concerning, but Podziemski is one Stephen Curry injury away from being a Top 50 player in fantasy and should still play 30 minutes no matter what.
Scoot Henderson (POR)
Scoot really struggled his first few months with the Blazers, but something changed in the second half. The No. 3 overall pick from last season was the primary point guard over the final 25 games, averaging 17.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.8 threes in that expanded role. Fans are worried about his efficiency metrics, shooting 39 percent from the field while committing 3.4 turnovers per game. You expect to see those things from a rookie point guard, and we have to assume Chauncey Billups will help him clean those things up after a year of development. This is also expected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and trading off guys like Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton or Anfernee Simons would only add to Henderson’s value!
Bilal Coulibaly (WSH)
We recommended numerous guys that most basketball fans are familiar with, so let’s go with a deep cut! Coulibaly hasn’t proved much at this level, but everyone in the Washington organization talks about how special this kid can be. Some say he has a Giannis-type profile because he can stuff the stat sheet with ease. That was occasionally on display with Coulibaly averaging 8.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 threes in his rookie campaign. Seeing a 19-year-old wing post defensive numbers like those is truly impressive, and we have to assume his role will increase for this woeful Washington roster. The Wizards already parted ways with Deni Avdija to get Bilal more minutes. If Kyle Kuzma is moved at some point, Coulibaly will become a must-roster player in every league.
