Give New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson some credit, I guess, for at least he managed to participate in a career-high 70 NBA games last season, up from 29 games the year prior, and after missing the entire 2021-22 campaign with a foot injury. When studying potential names for the annual fantasy basketball “Do Not Draft” list, where value is king, Williamson has always been a rather easy choice, not only due to constant injuries costing him myriad games, but because overeager managers always drafted the hype over the likely statistics.
That is, after all, what a “Do Not Draft” list is about.
Would I want Williamson on my fantasy team(s)? It is always about value and opportunity cost. After the fifth or sixth round, more commensurate in value with his typical numbers, sure, take a shot on unlikely statistical upside eventually coming to fruition. Last year, Williamson went in Round 3, on average, which means earlier in way too many leagues.
That was too soon, and despite relative health, Williamson indeed was a poor investment in the early rounds. He finished 69th on the Player Rater (roto/category formats), barely top-40 in volume-based points leagues. Even in points leagues, pay attention to the numbers more critical to roto formats, because we cannot always count on volume.
Williamson could lead this column every year, but there is another young player who, while durable through his first two NBA seasons, does offer some disappointing statistical comparison that perhaps few have noticed, but people are ignoring the similarities. We used to complain that Williamson did not rebound enough — when he seemed capable of doing so — to justify his hype, offered little when it came to stocks (steals and blocks), was almost no reasonable threat for 3-pointers, and actively hurt fantasy managers with his free throw shooting.
Orlando Magic PF/SF Paolo Banchero was the league’s top rookie in 2022-23, and he statistically improved in some areas last season, averaging more points and assists, notably. Still, Banchero was hardly a great fantasy option, and people seem to love him for this season, making him a second-round choice in ESPN ADP. Banchero finished 71st on the Player Rater last season, though 25th in points formats, where volume is king and often misleading.
Herein lies a major difference in our standard points formats and roto, but I compete in each, with a strong historical roto base. Banchero wasn’t worth it last season in roto, and only volume got him there in points formats. Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and Kelly Olynyk — all available in most ESPN leagues for a reason — were among those ahead of him on the Player Rater.
In a general sense, early fantasy picks should provide a well-rounded game, scoring many traditional points, while also adding significant rebounds, assists, blocks, 3-pointers, something else. Power forwards and point guards make for great roster building blocks. Banchero isn’t a power forward statistically, really.
Banchero was not among the top 30 traditional scorers last season, and his figure of 6.9 rebounds per game is a problem. We certainly need more than that. You will not find stocks here, either (86 blocks in two years, fewer than the Celtics’ Derrick White had just last year!) and Banchero is not an efficient shooter from anywhere on the court. In fact, his shooting numbers are bad (45% FG, 72% FT).
At least Williamson acknowledges he is not a good 3-point shooter, so he barely tries. Banchero hit 33% of 3-pointers, and he attempted 4.4 per game. If you need more, Banchero also finished ninth in the league in turnovers (Williamson was 14th). Hey, perhaps Year 3 goes better for Banchero, but there is little indication of upward statistical goodness. As with Williamson and everyone else in fantasy hoops, pay attention to the stats, not the hype.
Annual names on the “Do Not Draft” list
LeBron James, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 11)
James remains a marvelous player defying father time, but he turns 40 this season. He played in 71 games last season, his most since 2017-18, and we applaud him for doing so, which he and so many others did because the NBA essentially required it for postseason awards. Still, be realistic here. We have no argument with the great statistics, as James finished 13th on the Player Rater and seventh in points formats, but this fellow is turning 40. James proved us wrong last season but selecting him 11th offers no room for value on the pick, and we cannot assume he suits up in 71 games again.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 16)
Morant has never played in more than 67 NBA games in his five seasons. He missed the first 25 games last year serving a suspension for off-court behavior (which could easily occur again), debuted to much fanfare and went on to play well for a few weeks once, and then a shoulder injury ended his season. There is little gripe with the numbers, as he combines scoring with assists, generally solid shooting (we could use more 3-pointers), but he is unreliable, and we must demand our second-round picks to be more reliable.
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks (ADP: 27)
Cut to the chase here. Great player who does positive things on the court, but the last time he played in more than 60 games was in 2018-19. He has no interest in approaching 70 games in a season.
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF, LA Clippers (ADP: 35)
He played in 68 games last season, his most since 2016-17, but it took a toll, apparently, as he was mostly done by April, including missing most of the Clippers’ first round series, and he nursed a knee injury this summer. Older players don’t become more durable. The same concerns for Leonard exist as a season ago.
Klay Thompson, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (ADP: 90)
It is more difficult to criticize someone going in the ninth or 10th round because, well, our risk is so much lower. If the player struggles, you don’t feel bad about dumping him before Thanksgiving. Why take the player this early at all? Thompson is 34 now, joining a new squad in which the guards do everything. He never aided the Warriors or us much in rebounds, assists, steals, well, anything but scoring, 3-pointers and FT shooting. That’s it. Things will not change for the better in Dallas, except he probably struggles to average even 16 PPG.
Newcomers on the Do Not Draft list
LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 35:)
Hate to make it all about missing games, but this really does matter. Ball is a wonderful player, only 23 years old, but recurring ankle injuries have permitted him only 58 games the past two seasons combined. Until he proves some semblance of durability, this is a Mike Trout situation in which the name gets drafted because, well, who doesn’t love LaMelo Ball? Well, fantasy managers desperate for assists filling in for long stretches with Mike Conley and Tre Jones should pivot to safer point guards in the early rounds.
Mikal Bridges, SF/SG, New York Knicks (ADP: 46)
This one hurts because Bridges is a wonderful player in many respects, durable, defensive-minded, team oriented. That’s his problem this season. The Knicks don’t need him to score, not with PG Jalen Brunson, presumably healed PF Julius Randle, and others. If we’re being honest, Bridges has been a statistical disappointment for fantasy most of his career, never offering relevance in rebounds and assists, and people always view him as a steals option, but averaging barely one per game is not much. Do not expect close to top-50 fantasy performance.
Kristaps Porzingis, C/PF, Boston Celtics (ADP: 50)
He won a ring, but you may not have noticed, since he participated in only seven playoff games and wasn’t much of a factor. Porzingis generally produces numbers we can pinpoint reliably in advance (20 PPG, 8 RPG, relevant blocks, 3-pointers and shooting), but he has played in more than 60 games just once in the past seven seasons, and he is not going to get there this season, as he recovers from offseason foot surgery. See you in January, and even then, Porzingis will be handled carefully. When a franchise says a player may be ready to make his season debut when the calendar turns to a new year, don’t believe them.
Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 88)
Granted, it is hard for a ninth-round selection to show on this list, because it is late enough that you may as well take a chance or two. Middleton used to be underrated, scoring 20 PPG, rebounding, earning steals, etc. Now he is 33 and coming off 88 games in two seasons, and surgical procedures on both ankles this offseason. Sorry, there are better risks in the top 100.
