Identifying value is essential to fantasy basketball drafts, but it’s an inexact science. With that in mind, the Rotoworld staff has identified a few of its “studs” and “duds” ahead of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value options projected to go in the early, middle, and late rounds of drafts. First up is Raphielle Johnson, who believes a young Raptors star is in for a big 2024-25.
STUD: Scottie Barnes
Before a broken left middle finger ended Barnes’ season in early March, the Raptors forward was an incredible asset to fantasy managers. In 60 games, he accounted for 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.7 3-pointers in 34.9 minutes, shooting 47.5% from the field and 78.1% from the foul line. Barnes established career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, and free-throw percentage, stepping up to show he’s capable of being Toronto’s franchise cornerstone.
The pieces have changed around him, with Toronto trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam during the 2023-24 season, which resulted in Barnes’ increased fantasy value. He was a top 25 player in 8- and 9-cat formats (per game) while providing top 50 value in totals despite the season-ending injury. Add in the security of a max extension, and there’s a lot to like about Barnes in fantasy basketball this season.
DUD: Trae Young
With Dejounte Murray being traded to the Pelicans this summer, Young has moved into the first round in many fantasy drafts. On the surface level, I certainly get it. After two seasons in which his usage dipped into the low 30s, that number will increase, possibly on par with the 2021-22 (34.4) and 2019-20 (34.9) campaigns. However, this is very much an 8- vs. 9-cat situation for me. In formats where turnovers aren’t counted, or a manager is willing to punt that category, Young stands to be very good.
But he averaged 4.4 turnovers per game last season, Young’s highest number since 2019-20 (4.8), and the Hawks point guard has been responsible for at least four in each of the last five years. Will the scoring increase to a level where the turnovers don’t matter to managers in 9-cat leagues? It’s possible, but the roster change could also impact Young’s field-goal percentage. I’m not saying Young cannot offer first-round value, but I believe that expectation may be a bit much.
STUD: Brandon Miller
Due to the play of Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren and Charlotte’s struggles, Miller’s rookie campaign may have been overlooked by some. Finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting, he averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.5 3-pointers in 32.2 minutes, shooting 44.0% from the field and 82.7% from the foul line. Miller finished ranked just outside the top 100 in 8- and 9-cat per-game value while managing to crack that threshold in totals. What will help him this season are the returns of LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (back).
Having Ball on the court should result in cleaner looks for the entire rotation, in the half-court and in transition. As for Williams, his presence in the paint could empower players like Miller to be more active defensively than last season. I’m not expecting elite defensive production from the Hornets’ second-year wing, but his steals (he averaged a steal per game after the All-Star break) and blocked shots would improve Miller’s standing in fantasy basketball.
DUD: Michael Porter Jr.
The 2023-24 season wasn’t easy for Porter, on the court or off of it. However, his early Yahoo ADP (67.7) feels way too high. There’s room for a “market correction,” but MPJ only has one top 70 season to his credit (2020-21). Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope opens up a sizable hole within the Nuggets rotation on both ends of the floor.
The 1.6 3-pointers per game provided by KCP can be replaced, but what about the defense? Porter hasn’t offered much value in the steals and blocked shot categories, averaging 1.2 “stocks” per game last season (matching his career average). A positive is that he did play 81 games in 2023-24, the first time MPJ has surpassed 65. However, while the rebounding production increased, the scoring decreased. I’m concerned about Porter’s fantasy upside; I’d prefer to take a bigger swing in the 6th round of a standard league draft.
STUD: De’Anthony Melton
While there’s been little concern regarding Stephen Curry, making sense of the rest of the Warriors’ backcourt for fantasy purposes has been challenging this offseason. With Klay Thompson moving on to Dallas, a sizable hole in the rotation needs filling. Brandin Podziemski replaced the veteran guard in the starting lineup for a stretch last season, and he would appear to be the favorite to fill that void. Add in offseason signings Melton, and Buddy Hield and fourth-year wing Moses Moody, and training camp won’t lack for competition.
However, even with injuries limiting him to 38 games with the 76ers last season, Melton has long been a favorite among some fantasy managers. He isn’t the most efficient scorer, shooting 41.0% for his career and 38.6% last season. Still, the production in other categories makes him a valuable late-round option in fantasy leagues. Melton has career averages of 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 0.5 blocks; the rebounding number isn’t significant, but potentially getting two defensive contributions per game from a role player is nothing to scoff at. If Melton remains healthy (he played 73 and 77 games the two seasons prior), he could be a steal in fantasy basketball.
DUD: Jalen Green
Scoring has not been an issue for Green since he entered the NBA in 2021, averaging 17.3, 22.1, and 19.6 points per game for the Rockets. However, that production has not done much for his overall fantasy standing, with last season being the first in which he finished within the top 150 in per-game value and the top 100 in totals. Last season, in addition to the 19.6 points per game, Green averaged 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2.5 3-pointers while shooting 42.3% from the field and 80.4% from the foul line. The defensive production, or lack of it, is the biggest issue for Green in category leagues, but the field-goal percentage doesn’t help.
Green’s best stretch last season began in late February, a 20-game run in which he accounted for 26.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 3.7 3-pointers, shooting 46.5% from the field and 82.2% from the line. That production was good for top-25 per-game value in 9-cat formats. However, Alperen Sengun (knee/ankle) only played six games during that stretch and had the second-highest usage among Rockets players (trailing only Green). While Green’s play during that period was undoubtedly compelling, I’m not sure I trust him regarding season-long fantasy value. Add in the continued growth of Amen Thompson and the return of Tari Eason, and I have my doubts regarding Green as a top 100 fantasy player.
