Fantasy Football: Ja’Marr Chase booted from top-5, more AFC predictions

AFC East

1. New York Jets 11-6

2. Buffalo Bills 10-7 (Wild Card)

3. Miami Dolphins 10-7

4. New England Patriots 4-13

Fantasy predictions

• Jets: Breece Hall wins Offensive Player of the Year and finishes as the No. 1 fantasy back, while Garrett Wilson catches double-digit touchdowns and is a top-three wideout … An improved offensive line and a loaded defense helps an aging Aaron Rodgers lead New York to the conference championship game.

• Bills: Josh Allen makes up for no Stefon Diggs by running more, leading to another huge fantasy campaign and a top-three finish in MVP voting … James Cook loses short touchdowns to Ray Davis (and Allen) but finishes as a top-12 fantasy back anyway … Keon Coleman disappoints while recording the fourth-most receiving yards in Buffalo, as a committee frustrates fantasy managers … Dalton Kincaid outscores Travis Kelce and is a top-three fantasy tight end … The Bills have holes and a tough schedule but win a wild card spot.

• Dolphins: De’Von Achane misses a few contests but finishes as a top-three fantasy back in points per game. He’s a universal top-10 pick in 2025 fantasy drafts … Jaylen Wright produces multiple spike weeks thanks to Raheem Mostert’s age … Jaylen Waddle is closer to Tyreek Hill in fantasy scoring in 2024, while Jonnu Smith is a top-20 tight end … Miami went 10-0 against teams that missed the postseason last year but just 1-5 against playoff teams. It falls just short of the playoffs in 2024 with yet another late-season collapse.

• Patriots: Drake Maye finishes as a top 15 fantasy QB in points per game despite a horrible situation in New England … Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ most valuable fantasy pass catcher, while Rhamondre Stevenson disappoints thanks to one of the league’s worst offensive lines … New England enters underdogs in every matchup and with the league’s most difficult schedule, so it’s a threat to win the fewest games this year.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens 10-7

2. Cincinnati Bengals 10-7 (Wild Card)

3. Cleveland Browns 9-8

4. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-9

Fantasy predictions

• Ravens: Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns at 30 years old, while Lamar Jackson has upside for more passing coming off an MVP campaign; Baltimore only trailed for 38 plays during second halves last season (not counting Week 18), when the Ravens’ dropback rate went from ninth highest in the first half to the lowest in the second (H/T LordReebs) … Baltimore is due for regression and lost a lot of last year’s staff (including DC Mike Macdonald), but the Ravens repeat as division champs.

• Bengals: Joe Burrow continues to work more underneath, failing to live up to his ADP with so many other dual-threat QBs as competition … Chase Brown outscores Zack Moss, but it remains a frustrating committee for fantasy managers … Ja’Marr Chase isn’t a top-five fantasy wideout in 2024 … Questions surround the Bengals with Burrow coming off major surgery and Chase holding in, but they remain loaded with talent and get a last-place schedule, which ultimately leads to a wild card spot.

• Browns: Deshaun Watson continues to look like the league’s worst contract, but David Njoku finishes as a top-five fantasy tight end … Nick Chubb isn’t 100% after he eventually returns, leading to a committee and annoyed fantasy managers … Cleveland has a strong roster, but quarterback prevents it from reaching the postseason.

• Steelers: George Pickens overcomes another rough quarterback situation to finish as a top 20 fantasy wideout … Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren lose some work to Cordarrelle Patterson, while Justin Fields finishes as a top five fantasy QB multiple weeks … In a tough division, Mike Tomlin finally produces a losing season.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans 11-6

2. Indianapolis Colts 9-8

3. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-9

4. Tennessee Titans 5-12

Fantasy predictions

• Texans: C.J. Stroud, who likely played through multiple concussions during his underrated rookie season, finishes as runner-up in MVP voting … Nico Collins is a top 10 fantasy WR, outscoring Puka Nacua, Drake London, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Jaylen Waddle (who are all going higher in Yahoo drafts) … Tank Dell scores more fantasy points per game than Stefon Diggs, while Cam Akers is a deep fantasy sleeper … Houston is a hyped team, but the time is now with a star QB on a rookie deal. The Texans are also due for better health after leading the league in injuries to significant players according to FTN’s adjusted games lost numbers. Coaching is a real question mark, but Houston is a real threat to win the Super Bowl in 2024.

• Colts: Anthony Richardson is up-and-down as a passer but runs wild, scoring the most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks … Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in YPC and finishes second in rushing, while Michael Pittman fails to live up to his ADP … The Colts have good coaching and an elite offensive line but fall just short of a wild card berth.

• Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence never becomes the prince we were promised but is a top-15 fantasy QB despite OC Press Taylor … Travis Etienne isn’t a top-12 back, as Jacksonville follows through with its plan to ease his workload … Evan Engram is outscored by David Njoku, while Brian Thomas Jr. is the Jaguars’ best fantasy receiver over the second half of the season.

• Titans: Tyjae Spears outscores Tony Pollard, while DeAndre Hopkins outscores Calvin Ridley … It remains unclear exactly how Will Levis fits into new coach Brian Callahan’s offense, but the man with a fragrance figures to remain super aggressive either way; Levis attempted as many deep balls as Stroud last season over just nine games as a rookie … The Titans will miss Mike Vrabel but should be a fun fantasy team, as their offense will be dramatically different from last year’s 30th rank in pass rate over expectation.

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs 12-5

2. Los Angeles Chargers 10-7 (Wild Card)

3. Las Vegas Raiders 6-11

4. Denver Broncos 5-12

Fantasy predictions

• Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes throws the most touchdowns and wins MVP, helping the Chiefs become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls … Isiah Pacheco doesn’t live up to his ADP, losing passing-down work to Samaje Perine and short touchdowns to Carson Steele … Travis Kelce misses multiple games while preparing for another postseason run … Xavier Worthy is a top 30 fantasy wideout (third among rookies), while Rashee Rice is top 15.

• Chargers: Justin Herbert throws less under Jim Harbaugh, but he gets the best YPA of his career … Kimani Vidal eventually joins Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in a Chargers backfield that spreads around fantasy points … Josh Palmer is a fantasy sleeper who outscores rookie Ladd McConkey and finishes as a top-30 wideout … Harbaugh and a highly favorable schedule help Los Angeles win the final wild-card spot.

• Raiders: Zamir White is a fantasy disappointment, but Brock Bowers outscores Jake Ferguson … Jakobi Meyers is a better return on investment at ADP compared to Davante Adams, who’s a threat to be traded mid-season … Maxx Crosby wins Defensive Player of the Year, but the Raiders can’t overcome the league’s worst quarterback situation.

• Broncos: Bo Nix proves to be a steal in Superflex drafts, while Courtland Sutton vastly outperforms his ADP … Jaleel McLaughlin and Greg Dulcich are sleepers, but Javonte Williams is Denver’s top fantasy target; Williams finishes as a top 20 fantasy back thanks to Sean Payton … The Broncos continue rebuild mode in 2024.

NFC Preview coming soon.