It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen is coming off one the worst games of his career last week, when he also may have suffered a concussion. Allen has nearly matched as many finishes outside the top 18 QBs this year (three) as the last three seasons combined (four). While James Cook’s role has grown in the red zone, Allen somehow doesn’t have a single carry inside the five-yard line this season (he had 16 last year).
Allen just missed a 59-yard score last week and has still produced 10 touchdowns over five games through the slump. He remains an MVP candidate, so the panic level shouldn’t be high (assuming health). That said, Buffalo gets the Jets and the Titans over the next two weeks — the top two defenses in passing yards per game allowed (151.5 average). Allen might be a prime fantasy buy-low candidate soon.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne saw fewer snaps than Tank Bigsby last week after aggravating his shoulder injury. Doug Pederson says Etienne remains the starter, but it’s clear he’s looking at a lesser workload moving forward. Etienne wore down over the second half of last season after getting more work than ever, and Bigsby looks like the NFL’s most improved player in 2024.
Bigsby ranks first in YPC and first in rush yards over expectation per attempt (by a mile). He’s getting 6.5 YPC after contact with a 51% avoided tackle rate. Bigsby ranks 38th in rush attempts but fifth in broken tackles.
Etienne is a good player who will get most of the passing down work, but he’s going to continue to lose carries to the emerging Bigbsy. Etienne looks like a longshot to be worth his ADP.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall has just 27 rushing yards combined over the last two games. Braelon Allen has been an issue (and would become an even bigger one if he takes over the goal-line role), but the Jets’ offense has been the biggest reason for Hall’s disappointment. New York has scored the same number of points over the first five weeks this season compared to last, when Zach Wilson produced a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. The Jets’ run blocking ranks second-worst in YPC before contact on RB carries while allowing the third-highest stuffed run rate despite facing the fifth-lowest stacked box rate in the league.
Allen’s advanced rushing stats are nothing special (albeit better than Hall’s), and he was stuffed on back-to-back short third- and fourth-down runs and dropped a pass Sunday. Hall still had the fifth-highest backfield snap share split in the league last week, and he was facing a Minnesota defense allowing just 57.0 RB rushing yards per game. Hall’s Utilization Score (8.4) would make him a midrange to low-end RB1 most seasons.
Still, the Jets’ dysfunctional offense will continue to hamper Hall, and Allen replaced him when Rodgers threw a one-yard TD pass to Garrett Wilson during the team’s last goal-line situation. There’s obvious concern for a player drafted with a top-five pick who ranks bottom three in yards per touch. But Hall is too good to deal at the bottom of his fantasy value right now, especially with an upcoming matchup against a Bills defense allowing the most fantasy points to running backs this season (and the second-most EPA/rush).
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave has been the WR33 despite New Orleans averaging the fourth-most points (28.0) over the first five weeks. Rashid Shaheed has more receiving yards, targets, first-read targets, touchdowns and fantasy points. Shaheed has more than twice as many air yards and doubled Olave’s first-read target rate last week. The Saints have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and now Derek Carr is set to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury.
Olave is no longer the WR1 on his own team and will be seeing passes from a backup QB, so the panic level is high given his aggressive ADP.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens played just 57% of the snaps last week, when he failed to produce against a Dallas defense missing multiple stars. Mike Tomlin’s reasoning was “load management,” but Pickens appeared to run some questionable routes Sunday night. It’s clear there’s an issue here. Pickens’ snap share sits at 81% on the season, which is exactly what Arthur Smith did to Drake London.
Pickens is due for touchdown regression having seen the second-most targets (36) without scoring this season. It’s also possible a switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback helps. But Pickens’ usage without Diontae Johnson suggested a top 10 ceiling, and he looks more like a top 30 fantasy wideout instead.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Dell’s stats would be a lot different if not for a couple of drops on potentially long touchdowns, but he simply hasn’t looked the same this season. Whether it’s because of the leg surgery, a gunshot wound or a mental hurdle, Dell hasn’t been the same player irrespective of the Stefon Diggs addition. Dell’s average separation score has fallen from ranking first to 25th, and he’s dropped similarly in ESPN’s open score.
Dell’s target depth has also plummeted, which could improve with Nico Collins landing on IR due to a hamstring injury. Dell should see more targets with Collins out and showed too much talent as a rookie to be dropped in fantasy leagues. But he saw just a 12.1% target share after Collins left last week’s game, so managers should wait for a “prove it” game before starting him again.
