It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson has fewer catches, yards, touchdowns and yards per route run through four weeks this season compared to last despite now having a four-time MVP winner throwing to him. He ranks 77th in yards per target, 62nd in catchable target rate and third worst in ESPN’s receiving score. Rodgers’ Passer Rating is 27 points higher when throwing to anyone but Wilson this season.
Wilson has been a top 12 fantasy WR once (when he was WR10) over his last 26 games! The Raiders have three wide receivers averaging more fantasy points. Rodgers is already hobbled with a swollen knee in what remains a shaky offensive system, and crucially, Wilson’s extremely difficult schedule continues over the next month.
Wilson is an awesome receiver who just turned 24 years old and ranks 11th in expected fantasy points. He should also secure more back shoulder throws the more he builds chemistry with Rodgers, so some regression is coming. But there’s real panic for a WR with a top-12 ADP, and Wilson’s value would sink further should New York trade for Davante Adams.
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Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall had a career-low four rushing yards and was outperformed by Braelon Allen during New York’s loss to Denver. Hall totaled 18 yards on 15 opportunities, while Allen had 36 on nine. Hall was stuffed on back-to-back goal line runs (Allen replaced him for the following two pass plays), and Robert Saleh talked about possibly using Allen more there after the game.
Hall was targeted for a potential 30-yard TD in the end zone, but he also appeared to miss a key block(s) resulting in a late sack. Aaron Rodgers was noticeably frustrated with him at times Sunday, which was unquestionably a bad day for Hall.
The field conditions were better for the power back Sunday, and this is hardly all Hall’s fault; the Jets entered as the league’s worst offensive line before contact and were dominated by a Denver defense that’s allowed just 22 points combined over the last three games (and the fewest yards per play this year!). Hall has gained 166 of 174 rushing yards after contact this season.
Allen isn’t going away, but Hall is the superior receiver. Even with Allen’s emergence, Hall leads all RBs in receptions and is on pace to finish with 102 catches this season. Allen has faced fewer stacked boxes and has been only marginally better in YPC over expected. Only Christian McCaffrey outscored Hall in fantasy after he started seeing full snaps in Week 5 last season while playing for an offense that finished 31st in yards per play. Assuming health, Hall remains a star running back in his prime.
The schedule doesn’t exactly ease up in the short term, and some concern is warranted given the shift in usage (especially if it happens at the goal line). But Hall should still be treated as a mid-RB1 and continue to approach 20 opportunities a game. The Jets are providing a bunch of high-value touches for their running backs. Don’t sell low here.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts’ targets have dropped every season of his career, and he’s now losing them to Charlie Woerner. Pitts is dead last in ESPN’s receiving score and ranks fourth on his own team in first-read target rate. I’m beginning to think he may not live up to the hype. Pitts’ panic level is higher than Snoop Dogg.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson finished with a season-low 61% snap share and just one more opportunity (11) than Tyler Allgeier last week. Robinson had fewer than half as many rushing yards. Raheem Morris explained it was a “hot hand” situation, and Robinson had a lengthy touchdown catch called back in the fourth quarter. Comparing their season YPC (6.1 vs. 4.1) isn’t fair to Robinson, who’s faced far more stacked boxes.
Robinson had an 81% snap rate through three weeks, so injuries could have also been a reason for Week 4’s workload. While Sunday’s game looks like an aberration, the Falcons play Thursday this week, so it’s possible Robinson sees less usage again.
Robinson ranks in between Devin Singletary and Chuba Hubbard in RB expected and actual fantasy points. He’s recorded a weekly top five RB finish once during his career. That’s concerning for someone drafted as a top five overall pick.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson’s roller-coaster season continued last week, as he was off to a great start Sunday (including a +12.2 CPOE in the 90th percentile) before a hip injury forced him to watch Joe Flacco lead the Colts to a win. Richardson appears to have avoided a major injury, and he’ll start this week if healthy. Still, a hip injury could limit running, and it’s admittedly unsettling Flacco looms when Richardson has the highest percentage of turnover worthy plays.
That said, Richardson has gotten the same number of yards per pass attempt (8.5) as Jayden Daniels despite owning a completion percentage that’s 31.5% lower. How is that even possible? He’s been the league’s best deep thrower but among the worst everywhere else, and let’s hope the latter regresses more moving forward. Richardson was close (again) to a rushing TD Sunday, and his schedule now eases up after facing the league’s most difficult start. Especially given the quarterback situation around the NFL, fantasy managers should remain patient with Richardson (although those with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs would disagree).
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has failed to reach 30 pass attempts in three games already this year after doing so just once all last season. He has 12 TD passes with 10 interceptions over his last nine regular season games, reaching 300 passing yards just once. He has a career-high nine straight games with a giveaway, has the most interceptable passes this season and ranks 22nd in adjusted yards per attempt. Mahomes also ranks last by a full half yard in air yards per attempt, and he has a worse completion percentage over expectation than Caleb Williams.
Now he’s lost Rashee Rice, who was by far Mahomes’ favorite target. Mahomes had gone 30 games without a 50-yard TD pass before hitting Xavier Worthy deep last week, but the rookie remains raw and sports the third-worst win rate. Kansas City’s pass rate has been down over the last two games, and Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB14 since Week 12 last season (nine games).
Mahomes remains the current favorite to win MVP this season and will figure it out for the Chiefs (who could trade for a WR), but he was drafted as the QB1 in NFFC Primetime high stakes leagues. He shouldn’t be treated as a top 10 fantasy QB right now.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Moore is running a ton of routes and seeing a healthy number of targets, but his fantasy value has been destroyed by Caleb Williams and a Chicago offense getting the fewest yards per play in the league. Shane Waldron is a major problem, and Williams’ off-target rate on throws 10+ yards downfield is the worst in the league (outside of benched Bryce Young and one Tyler Huntley start). Williams has been even worse on throws 15+ yards downfield, and Moore has been noticeably sulking by himself on the sidelines.
Williams should improve throughout his rookie season, but Moore has 140 yards over four games if you remove his Hail Mary catch, and that’s come with a highly favorable schedule. Keenan Allen figures to be more involved now that he’s healthier, and Rome Odunze has flashed target earning ability. Moore was a top-40 overall pick in Yahoo leagues, so the panic level is high.
