This isn’t the first time we’ve visited the Bears in my weekly Pulse Check and it likely won’t be the last. With a rookie quarterback at the helm under questionable leadership (looking at you, Matt Eberflus), there are bound to be ups and downs.
We’ll start Bears when we probably shouldn’t have *cough cough Rome Odunze in Week 4* and we’ll sit players on weeks they go off. As time goes on, we’ll get a clearer image of the Bears’ fantasy outlook.
This week, the Bears dominated the Panthers with a 36-10 win, showcasing an offense that finally seems to be coming together after weeks of relying on the defense to carry the load. The Bears got their second straight win and took full advantage of a porous Panthers defense, both on the ground and through the air, and this new offensive surge and balance is exactly what we’ve been waiting for. With some favorable games ahead, this could be the stretch where we see the Bears not just survive but thrive and produce multiple start-worthy fantasy assets with top-10 upside.
So, let’s dive into what’s been working, what still needs fine-tuning and why there’s hope for the Bears moving forward.
Caleb Williams, QB
We’ll start things off at quarterback because everything begins and ends with your quarterback — just ask the Browns. Looking at Williams’ Week 5 numbers on the surface, there appears to be inconsistency. However, while the volume lacks consistency, there’s a clear upward trend in Williams’ overall performance.
The rise began in Week 3, where Williams had a sudden and dramatic uptick in volume with 52 total attempts, completing 33 for 363 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. That was against an Indianapolis defense that’s extremely easy to attack with volume through the air. We saw that this week with Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 371 yards, and in Week 4 with Justin Fields’ 300-yard game. So, in the context of the matchup, the volume makes sense, and there’s a logical reason for the outlier. Ideally, we would have liked to see a more efficient performance from Williams, but seeing the Bears trust him to lean into the matchup was a positive sign.
Week 4 was a drastic difference, with Williams throwing the ball just 23 times, completing 17 for 157 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. Williams was efficient, mistake-free and managed a low-scoring victory.
This week, with an extremely advantageous matchup against the Panthers, Williams put on an absolute clinic, completing 20 of 29 attempts for 304 yards and two touchdowns, no interceptions and five carries for 34 yards.
Pulse check: Is Williams’ recent success just a function of good matchups?
Williams is undoubtedly in the easier portion of the Chicago schedule, but the month ahead looks just as promising. Chicago faces Jacksonville, Washington and Arizona before the schedule gets tougher in Week 10. This stretch offers developmental opportunities where he should continue to put up solid numbers and adjust to the NFL under friendlier terms. The strong indicator of Williams’ success, and how it affects the team moving forward, is that it’s not just Williams who has been succeeding — the entire offense has been flowing well. We’re starting to trust Williams and his surrounding fantasy assets as a whole.
This was the unquestioned first-overall pick we’ve been waiting to see and fantasy managers should lean into this pass-friendly stretch.
Wide Receivers: DJ Moore vs. Rome Odunze vs. Keenan Allen
Heading into the season, of all the receiving corps throughout the league, the Bears honestly made me the most uncomfortable. It’s certainly not for lack of talent; they have arguably one of the best corps in the league. The problem was that we had no clear indicator of who would truly stand out or what level of consistency we could expect on a weekly basis. Even putting aside the volatility of a rookie quarterback, we’re talking about the team’s incumbent WR1 in Moore, a veteran receiver with multiple top-10 fantasy finishes and a known target hog in Allen and a top-10 rookie receiver in Odunze. It was bound to be a bit messy.
Week 1 was an anomaly with Allen dominating in targets. While Allen was out in Weeks 2 and 3, Odunze ascended, particularly in Week 3, where he had nearly an identical target share to Moore but with more yardage and a touchdown. With Allen returning in Week 4, things have flattened. Allen hasn’t particularly stood out, while Moore continues to operate as the WR1. Odunze’s Week 3 volume appears to be more of a blip.
Pulse check: Is there consistency at receiver beyond Moore?
Our trust remains in Moore as the only consistent and reliable receiving option in Chicago. All three receivers have high ceilings, but Moore is the only one with a reliable floor, with his worst finish being WR44 in Week 1. Odunze has finished outside the top 50 in three of the five weeks so far. Allen has yet to exceed five fantasy points in half-PPR scoring.
However, there are some positive takeaways here. When the entire receiving corps is healthy, the target share is focused specifically on those three receivers. There’s potentially enough volume for all three to be fantasy-relevant. As Williams continues to develop and consistency flows within the passing game, we should see an uptick in reliability from the receiving corps as a whole.
But for now, Moore is the only weekly start.
Running Backs: D’Andre Swift vs. Roschon Johnson
The Bears’ running back room has been a bit all over the place. Despite the Bears announcing an increased role for Johnson, Swift has out-touched all Chicago backs in every game this season. Heading into the week, Swift averaged 16.5 touches per game compared to 9.5 for Johnson and 3.3 for Khalil Herbert. And while Herbert has actually been more successful in terms of fantasy points per touch compared to Swift, we should expect Swift to remain the lead back moving forward, particularly in terms of volume.
However, it’s tough to shake the feeling of those earlier matchups where Swift couldn’t even crack 30 yards on the ground.
Pulse check: Can we trust Swift’s production?
Oddly enough, I think the Bears’ running back usage is pretty clear-cut at this point. Swift is a quick back who isn’t particularly undersized in weight but perhaps lacks the power to push through difficult matchups due to the Bears’ struggles on the offensive line. This is why he struggled earlier in the season and improved in matchups versus the Rams and Panthers. We saw it last year when he played behind an excellent line in Philadelphia. When holes exist and the line holds up, Swift will thrive.
Johnson’s increased role appears to be more short-yardage-related. Khalil Herbert has been iced out of the offense, but from a fantasy perspective, that benefits us.
Narrow usage between Johnson and Swift makes fantasy production much easier to predict. Swift has an RB2 floor with RB1 upside in these favorable matchups. Johnson has standalone value with potential goal-line touches. While his volume will likely continue to be capped at 10 carries, goal-line opportunities should flow over the next several weeks, making Johnson an RB3 with borderline flex value moving forward.
