Quarterback
Start: Geno Smith, Seahawks
The Seahawks have become the people’s passing attack since Week 1. Over the past three weeks, Seattle has a +10% pass rate over expected.
They are also fifth in situational neutral pace over the past three weeks. Geno, in turn, has been lighting defenses up. He is 11th in EPA and ninth in CPOE and has topped 300 yards twice in the past three weeks. Vegas is buying this version of the Seahawks and has them with a 25-point team total, the fourth-highest of the week.
Start: Brock Purdy, 49ers
Purdy is pushing all of the buttons in Kyle Shanahan’s offense once again and is en route to another top-five season in EPA per play. The former Mr. Irrelevant has also upped his game in a number of areas, including when he’s pressured. Purdy has thrown three touchdowns with zero interceptions on pressured dropbacks. He had 11 touchdowns and six interceptions when pressured last year. Purdy is also running more. He has 75 yards on the ground.
That has him over halfway to his 2023 total of 144 yards after less than a quarter of the season. Purdy is taking some crucial next steps as a quarterback and gets to cut loose this week versus an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Sit: Derek Carr, Saints
After two weeks of failure, Vegas has thrown in the towel on the Saints’ offense. Their team total of 18.75 points is tied with New England. Carr has 381 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions over his last two appearances. He ranks as the QB20 in EPA per play during that stretch. Now he gets a Chiefs defense that has given up more than one passing touchdown once this year.
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Rodgers has played extremely well coming off his torn Achilles but is up against a buzzsaw Minnesota pass defense. They have given up the 20th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but that is fueled almost exclusively by Jordan Love’s frenetic comeback effort last week. Love threw for four scores—the first multi-score effort against the Jets—but needed three interceptions to get there and the Packers still lost. Minnesota ranks first in EPA per dropback allowed and has conceded one QB1 performance so far.
Running Back
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
Brown flashes big-play potential seemingly every time he gets the ball and the Bengals are coming to grips with the fact that they have to play him more. He held Zack Moss to a carries standstill at 15 a piece in Week 4. Brown saw two goal line carries to Moss’s one. Brown has forced a committee and is the exact type of player who can explode on half of a backfield’s touches.
Start: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Hunt was active for the first time this year in Week 4. Carson Steele fumbled early in the game, paving the way for Hunt to reclaim the backfield he dominated many years ago. Hunt wound up rushing 14 times for 69 yards. He caught two passes for 16 yards as well. The rest of the running backs combined for eight touches. The Chiefs are 5.5-point home favorites versus the Saints, teeing up Hunt for a strong showing in positive game script this week.
Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
The New England coaching staff is already teetering on the edge of benching Stevenson.
Jerod Mayo says it is “definitely under consideration” that RB Antonio Gibson starts over Rhamondre Stevenson on Sunday after Stevenson has fumbled in each of the first four games.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 2, 2024
We may have even seen the start of this over the past two weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, Stevenson accounted for 67 percent of the Pats’ carries with a 75 percent snap share and a 67 percent route rate. In the past two weeks, Stevenson’s carry share has fallen to 51 percent and his route rate has plummeted to 42 percent.
Sit: Javonte Williams, Broncos
Tyler Badie suffered a back injury in Week 4, narrowing the Denver backfield to a two-man committee once again. Even with half of the carries, Williams is a clear fade. He is averaging -.9 rush yards over expected per attempt and PFF has him graded as their No. 52 runner out of 53 qualified backs. Williams is a touchdown-or-bust back on a team with a projected total below 20 points.
Wide Receiver
Start: Dontayvion Wicks, Packers
Wicks has been targeted on 21 percent of his routes this year and has an aDOT of 14.8. He has only played a part-time role until now, mitigating what could be an elite production profile, but will step into a starting job with Christian Watson out of the lineup. He and the Packers get a Rams defense that sits at 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. It’s wheels up for Wicks this week.
Start: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
Thomas Jr. has been one of the most efficient receivers in the league despite playing on an underwhelming Jacksonville passing attack. He is 15th in yards per target (10.6) and 16th in yards per route run (2.4) among wide receivers. BTJ has been especially dominant against Cover 3 looks. He is second among all wide receivers (min. 20 routes) in YPRR against Cover 3. His opponent for Week 4, Indianapolis, leads the league in Cover 3 usage at 52 percent.
Sit: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
Things remain bleak for the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup. They have thrown for 218 yards over the past two weeks and have completely abandoned the pass. Miami has a -10% pass rate over expected in their two games without Tua. To no one’s surprise, Waddle has become almost completely irrelevant when he has lost his quarterback over the past two seasons.
Waddle can be left on the bench until Tagovailoa comes off injured reserve.
Sit: Keenan Allen, Bears
Allen returned to action last week after a two-game absence because of a heel injury. He earned just three targets for a grand total of seven air yards. His elite target share from Week 1 was nowhere to be found. Now Allen looks more like a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver on an offense that has topped 174 passing yards just once in four games. That’s too risky to treat Allen as anything other than a WR4.
Tight End
Start: Tucker Kraft, Packers
Kraft’s role has grown since a quiet Week 1. He has a 15 percent target share over the past three weeks and his route rate hit a season-high of 86 percent versus the Vikings on Sunday. ESPN’s player tracking data also sees him as a player worth throwing too early and often. He is tied for third in Open Score and tops the charts in YAC Score. Kraft is approaching every-down status on an offense we want to target heading into a phenomenal matchup. You can’t ask for more from a streaming tight end.
Start: Zach Ertz, Commanders
Ertz is 14th in target share and seventh in air yards share among tight ends. He is averaging a pedestrian 1.3 yards per route run. That’s still an improvement compared to his recent seasons and is enough to warrant some streaming consideration. The number that locks him into a TE1 ranking for Week 5 and beyond is .4, Jayden Daniels’ EPA per dropback.
Daniels leads the NFL in both EPA per play and CPOE. Ertz is seeing enough of one of the league’s best offenses to be ranked as a TE1
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Andrews just isn’t playing much football these days. He logged route rates of 35 percent and 48 percent over the last two weeks. Isaiah Likely has easily out-snapped and out-routed Andrews over that stretch. Andrews hasn’t caught a pass since Week 2. We have to treat him like a backup tight end until something changes.
Sit: Hunter Henry, Patriots
Henry’s snap share and route rate sat above 80 percent through two weeks. Those numbers have fallen below 80 percent in consecutive games. He is also spending slightly more time blocking on passing plays and the Pats are scheming him fewer looks through the air. He saw 29 percent of the team’s first read targets in Weeks 1 and 2. That is down to 11 percent in his past two appearances.
