Football 301 Playbook: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still a tough matchup for 49ers

Much has been made about the Kansas City Chiefs’ pass catchers: The Hollywood Brown signing (and injury), the Xavier Worthy draft pick, Rashee Rice’s emergence (and then unfortunate injury), Travis Kelce’s usage arguments and JuJu Smith-Schuster partying like it’s 2018. Despite cruising to a 5-0 record and sitting firmly in the top 10 in whatever metric you want to look at, there have been a lot of words yelled and written about “what’s wrong with the Chiefs’ offense?”

I’m here to tell you that there’s nothing wrong with the Chiefs’ offense or quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Sure, the statistics are more middling and there have been only a smattering of those long bombs, which seems to run counter to this offseason’s speed injection. This is just the next stage and version of the Chiefs that has — and will continue to — evolve based on the personnel surrounding their all-world quarterback and Hall of Fame play-caller.

And this version of the Chiefs will be put to the test in Sunday’s anticipated Super Bowl rematch at the San Francisco 49ers.

The speed of Worthy and the threat of Mahomes launching downfield has instead opened up different areas for the Chiefs to attack. This Chiefs’ offense isn’t the high-flying version when Mahomes first started. It’s something more aligned with what Andy Reid was doing in Philadelphia when Donovan McNabb was his quarterback, or even his early Chiefs tenure with Alex Smith. This offense thrives on being efficient. Super efficient. Hyper efficient. Constantly jabbing defenses with 4- and 5-yard gains, on the ground and through the air, until Mahomes gives a defense the sweet release of a haymaker or Reid has his players execute one of his fever dream red-zone plays.

The Chiefs’ run game has taken over as the primary driver of this offense. It’s not explosive as the Chiefs’ running backs haven’t had a single explosive run (a gain of 12 or more yards) this season. It’s a startling stat (the league average is currently 10) which makes more sense given that the running backs post-Isiah Pacheco injury are a mixture of undrafted (Carson Steele) and veteran free-agent stopgaps (Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine). But those running backs at least know how to hit the hole, making this run game one of the most efficient ground assaults in the NFL.

The Chiefs sit third in rushing success rate (47.9%) on RB rushes, sandwiched between teams that we generally associate as having burly run games (Lions, Rams, Falcons, Ravens). So while it’s not explosive, it constantly keeps the Chiefs ahead of the chains (the Chiefs are currently averaging 6.8 yards to go on third down, a marked improvement over last year and top half of the NFL right now). Shorter distances to go means Mahomes doesn’t have to attack deeper or count on pass catchers to consistently win on more difficult downfield routes. Instead, it keeps everything manageable and solvable for their brilliant signal-caller.

The Chiefs’ offensive line looks rejuvenated after a lackluster 2023 season, where the group ranked among the worst run games in the NFL. Last year’s playoffs is when the Chiefs’ run game came alive, sitting up like Michael Myers after getting battered for several months.

It’s not really just one particular run or personnel grouping from which the Chiefs are succeeding. Their run game is, to use a common introductory news conference term for coaches: multiple. The team uses light bodies and heavy bodies alike as well as leaning into a variety of run concepts, mostly inside zone, but also things like duo, pin-pull and power to keep defenses on their toes.

They chopped down on outside stretch concepts that were not conducive to their running backs’ or blockers’ skill sets and have focused on attacking inside and using more gap schemes. They have dropped their outside zone usage from 18.2% in 2023 to 11.3% of their runs this season, according to FTNFantasy. The Chiefs have also started to lean even more heavily in running the ball from under center. Of the Chiefs’ runs, 40.3% have come from under center in 2024, a huge jump compared to their comical 29.9% rate in 2023, according to TruMedia. This streamlined attack featuring so many under-center runs just feels kind of right for Reid and these Chiefs.

When they do run the ball out of shotgun, the Chiefs will often package the plays with routes like bubbles, smokes and flat routes. That’s part of the reason why so many of Mahomes’ stats seem like he’s become a “checkdown merchant.” I can assure you he hasn’t. We commonly call these RPOs now, but these are more of the OG RPOs of football. I like to differentiate them as “packaged plays” since the routes are working behind the line of scrimmage with blockers. Not that the Chiefs don’t run the more modern RPOs, featuring hitches and slants with their run game, but the Chiefs have instead looked to stretch defenses, who are often featuring softer zone coverages, as horizontally as they can so they can pound away again with another 5-yard run.

Thirty percent of Mahomes’ throws are at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to NextGenStats, a markedly higher rate than ever before in his career. It might seem boring and safe, but it makes for a simple and efficient offense that uses its personnel correctly. If defenses aren’t going to make you do crazy things, why bend over backward when you can just gobble up cheap yards and first downs?

The personnel also keeps being put in spots where Chiefs can consistently succeed. Like having two tight ends blocking for Mecole Hardman on a bubble, getting a speedier player with room to operate and size advantages for the TEs to block. If the read player (the defender whom the quarterback is keying on) steps toward the bubble or the defense flows hard, Mahomes can simply hand the ball off with a numbers advantage and let his interior offensive line trio of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith go to work (remember their increased rate of inside zone).

This isn’t a new thing in the NFL or even for the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are making a lot of hay out of these plays with condensed formations and motion at the snap to hold defenders just that extra quarter-second. Mahomes is throwing 15.6% of his passes this season to routes labeled as WR screens, which is the highest rate among NFL QBs, according to NextGenStats. It’s also easily the highest of his career and more than double his career average of 7.2% and the current league average of 6.6%. While I want Mahomes and the Chiefs to get to the fireworks factory as much as anyone else, there really is no reason to change this attack if defenses are going to keep giving it to them (and the 49ers’ base defensive structure is also conducive to this kind of game plan; more on that in a moment).

The Chiefs’ offensive line improvement also shows up in pressure rate allowed. Mahomes has been pressured on 26.5% of his dropbacks this season, fifth-lowest among qualifying QBs in 2024, the lowest of Mahomes’ career and an improvement on last year’s rate of 30.7%. This lack of pressure has allowed Mahomes to be more selective in how he proceeds with his aggression. Sure, only 3.8% of his pass attempts this season have traveled more than 20 air yards, the lowest rate in the NFL, and he pushes the ball past the sticks at the lowest rate of his career (28.8% compared to his career average of 38.6%) but he’s still fifth in dropback success rate and his arm talent has gone nowhere. Mahomes is still Mahomes, firing throws all over the yard and contorting his body into positions that make him look like an extra in “Black Swan.”

His arm talent and arm strength shows up constantly when he is throwing underneath and when he needs to drive on throws, getting the ball quickly on his pass-catchers to start making plays with the football. Again, he is picking and choosing his spots to air it out or add his usual flair because he is allowed to do so. The rest of the offense is so efficient and the floor is so high, he doesn’t always need to amp up the degree of difficulty. He has only six passing touchdowns because the Chiefs can simply run the ball into the end zone. That run game keeps churning and he’s not missing when he does throw. Even the throws he has to make are looking easier and more available (especially against the Saints), and those numbers are backed up in the metrics: he’s making more throws to open players than he ever has in his career, with 54.7% of his targets being labeled as open and 32.6% as wide open, according to NextGenStats. Both those numbers dwarf his career bests. But when he needs to morph back into a magician, he can. Again, he’s still Patrick Mahomes. His style has just evolved from a new age version of Brett Favre to a mid-2010s version of Aaron Rodgers.

And when his pass-catchers aren’t getting open, Mahomes is still making good decisions. He’s scrambling and throwing the ball away at the highest rates of his career. With 12 throwaways already through five weeks (for comparison, he had 18 throwaways total in his first year as a full-time starter in 2018), he’s choosing to fight another day rather than force a throw (related to his open throw rate, Mahomes is also throwing into tighter windows at the lowest rate of his career: 7.5% compared to his career average of 10.6%). He’s also turning to his legs more often than ever, especially on third and fourth down, when he’s currently scrambling on over 13% of his dropbacks on late downs, the highest rate in the NFL. But these scrambles don’t feel as desperate for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense as they did last season, because the distance to go isn’t as drastic and the offense has more answers than: “hey, Patrick, can you go do something, pretty please?”

We talk about how offenses and quarterbacks should take what the defenses give them. And the Chiefs and Mahomes are doing that, over and over again. It’s not sexy, despite being an offense that we typically associate as a high-flying act. It’s a modern version of a traditional West Coast offense that wants to run and use play-action and quick passes to get defenses running every which way. The lack of explosives is a feature of this offense, not a bug, with the sheer efficiency not requiring desperate deep shots to make up for their lack of first downs.

Now how does that apply in their Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers on Sunday? I’ve written before that the 49ers thrive in making offenses nickel and dime their way down the field, and that trend has continued this season. The 49ers currently allow the fifth-fewest rate of explosive plays and they still have Nick Bosa destroying one-on-one blocks and Fred Warner roaming the middle of the field. But this defense doesn’t have the teeth of prior versions we’ve seen in the Bay Area under Kyle Shanahan. Injuries and talent attrition have left gaps in the defense. It’s still a solid unit, but not quite the one of recent seasons that make moving the ball a constant slog and every dropback an adventure. Their modus operandi has largely remained the same: heavy zone coverage on early downs and man coverage on late downs, with very little blitzing. It’s a formula that shouldn’t rattle the Chiefs’ cages too much. Mahomes has faced more and more zone coverage as his career has gone along (which is why the Chiefs’ offense currently looks like it does. Those bubbles put zone-heavy defenses like the 49ers in a bind) and man coverage on late downs, which could open up opportunities for Mahomes to continue to use his legs.

The biggest thorn in the 49ers’ side is when offenses trot out multiple tight ends and dare them to match with more linebackers, with the non-Fred Warner players at that position representing the biggest personnel weakness on this defense. They are average at stopping the run from these looks, but can be gashed through the air with their linebackers biting on runs and struggling to find their coverage assignments.

In Week 5, the Cardinals punished this 49ers weakness by trotting out multiple tight ends on 29 plays, finishing with a success rate over 50% and six total explosive plays, including three passes. They especially got after the 49ers in the second half with wing tight end looks.

The Chiefs also love their multiple tight end looks, especially after the Rice injury. Every game this season, the Chiefs have used at least 20 plays with multiple tight ends, with a high of 31 plays in Week 5 against the Saints (the first week without Rice). They’ve used 13 personnel (with 1 RB, 3 TEs and 1 WR) at the third-highest rate this season and have continued their successful and efficient ways out of that grouping (and have been very explosive out of this personnel grouping in the past).

This is not to say the 49ers’ defense is a pushover. Far from it (ask the Seahawks). But there are definitely threads to pull at for Reid and the Chiefs’ coaching staff, especially after a bye week. Remember, this is post-bye week Andy Reid, so expect some wrinkles from this Chiefs game plan (Reid is 21-4 in his career after a regular-season bye week, 20-2 when the opponent played the previous week and 5-1 with Mahomes as the starting QB. It should be noted that the 49ers are coming off a mini-bye week with their Week 6 Thursday night game against the Seahawks, though).

It should be another great game between these two preseason favorites. The Chiefs’ offense might not be exactly what everyone envisioned a few months ago, with birds chirping and explosions in the sky as the ball travels in the air 40 yards at a time. It’s instead a methodical offense with a cloud-of-dust run game that makes the most of its personnel and has a quarterback who can operate this way. It’s a testament to Mahomes’ mind and the layers he continues to add to his career. And it’s even more wildly impressive considering the island of misfit toys surrounding him.