Earlier this month, Direct Weather—a popular meteorology-focused channel—provided an updated seasonal outlook for this upcoming winter.
Perhaps most interestingly, the video departs pretty dramatically from the La Niña pattern that’s gotten so much buzz this summer and suggests that the East could see “Huge Snowstorms.” See below.
The standard La Niña wisdom is that the Pacific Northwest tends to see wetter and cooler winter weather, creating the perfect conditions for powder-hungry skiers.
However, Direct Weather sees this coming winter differently—he suggests that temperatures in the PNW will be above average and didn’t note any perceptible departure from normal snowfall-wise in the region, meaning, in his view, it could swing either way.
Why? Direct Weather pointed out that we’re anticipating a weak La Niña (La Niña strength is determined by ocean temperatures), which corresponds with NOAA’s assessment earlier this month.
NOAA
“The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of a weak La Niña,” the NOAA assessment reads. Weak La Niñas generally result in less obvious winter impacts, meaning the usual outcome—trending colder and wetter in the PNW—may be less likely this winter.
Still, across its current seasonal outlooks, NOAA roughly adheres to the usual La Niña weather pattern, predicting above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures across the PNW and the Northern U.S. These outlooks contain another significant difference between NOAA and Direct Weather—Direct Weather calls for colder-than-average temperatures out East, contrasting with NOAA, which anticipates above-average temperatures in that region.
YouTube/DirectWeather
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks could change, though. The agency updates its guidance mid-month, republishing a complete set of year-long seasonal outlooks that’ll cover the duration of this upcoming winter. The next update date is October 17th.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—which involves the swings between La Niña and El Niño—is a valuable tool for forecasters hoping to get a rough idea of what an upcoming winter might look like.
Still, a lot can happen between now and February, and there are no guarantees about what this coming ski season will be like. We can estimate based on historical occurrences, but Mother Nature has the final say. “There is a great deal of variability even among strong La Niña events,” Thomas di Liberto of NOAA wrote in a blog post.
Related: La Niña Is Coming— Why Tree Well Safety is Essential This Season
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