Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper weighed in on Israel’s likely response to a barrage of missiles launched by Tehran earlier this week and potential attacks on Iran nuclear facilities, saying it would be a “significant strike.”
“It’ll be a significant strike,” he told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Friday evening. “And the first question will be is what do they want to achieve if they want to go after regime change? And I think they’ll … go into Tehran and they’ll go after the Ayatollah Khomeini, they’ll go after President [Masoud] Pezeshkian, and they’ll go after the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps].”
Esper, who served under the Trump administration, added that Israel’s military would also have to knock out Iran’s command and control centers to prevent communication with the rest of the regime. But, he added, if they were to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, Israel would need to assess the risk of losing some personnel.
“If they want to go after military capabilities and you would look at strategic assets like the nuclear sites that are just south of Tehran and places like Fordow and Iraq and stuff like that, the danger of course, is that you have to go deep into the territory and you may lose a pilot,” the former Defense chief said. “Same thing as if you go up north to Tehran.”
“The other challenge, by the way of going after regime change, the downside is you risk civilian casualties,” Esper said later. “And what you don’t want to do is to have the Iranian people rally around that regime, particularly since it’s so fragile right now, and they’re really not happy with the Iranian regime.”
His comments come after President Biden said earlier this week that he does not support the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carrying out strikes on Iranian oil or nuclear sites.
GOP defense hawks, however, have disagreed with the president, arguing that nuclear facilities are fair game after Iran launched some 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the Israeli military’s killing of top Hezbollah leaders and a recent incursion into Lebanon. The latest attacks come as Israel’s war against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza nears its one-year anniversary.
Esper said another set of military targets that Israel could target are ballistic missile production sites, storage sites and drone production sites. He added that the IDF could also go after “economic targets.”
“We’ve talked about the 12 to 14 facilities involved in oil refining and manufacturing and distribution, and some are right there on the Gulf Coast,” he said Friday.
Asked if Israel is capable of handling the risk of a wider war in the region if they do retaliate against Iran, Esper said, “I suspect they are.” But, he noted, they would need help from allies, such as the U.S.
“We would need to be there to support them in different ways. Of course, the production of the munitions and other means would be critical. And in some, depending on the operation or some things they need our assistance on,” he said.
But I believe they will. I suppose they’ve been preparing this for a long time. And look, this is quite a change in a strategic situation,” he continued. “We haven’t seen this ever really. But the simple fact that Hamas is now on its knees, it’s nearly decimated.”
He added that Hezbollah too is “on the ropes” after Israel took out much of its leadership.
“That was really always the counterpunch, the right hook that Iran had in its back pocket in case Israel ever attacked Iran, and now they’re gone,” he said. “So, what does Iran have left to respond with if Israel hits back really hard? Another salvo of ballistic missiles.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defended Iran’s attack, which was thwarted quickly by Israel’s Iron Dome, in a rare speech Friday, arguing it was “correct, logical, and lawful.”
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