In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Ravens vs. Bucs
In the NFL’s (sad and unfortunate) two high safety era, it’s exceedingly rare we have two pass funnel defenses in the same game. When I was a kid, walking uphill in the snow to and from school every day, pass funnels squared off all the time. My kids will never know such glory.
We have to pass funnels in Week 7’s Tampa-Baltimore game. It’s a throwback matchup of sorts that could very well feature a lot of passing and therefore a lot of plays. We’re looking at a good fantasy environment here. The Ravens, with their opponents 2024 opponents sitting at 13 percent of their expected pass rate, are now the league’s most pronounced pass funnel. The Bucs’ opponents are tied for second highest pass rate over expected (9 percent) through Week 6.
It’s not just that both teams have exploitable secondaries. The Ravens and Bucs have been tough against the rush for much of the season. In yards before contact per rush — a key metric in quantifying how good or bad a defense is against the run — the Bucs rank tenth best and the Ravens third. Baltimore’s 27 percent rushing success rate allowed is by far the league’s best (Tampa ranks 17th).
All the usual suspects will benefit from this clash of pass funnels: Zay Flowers, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans. A bunch of drop backs for Lamar Jackson has been less-than-bad for the team’s tight ends. Isaiah Likely went off on opening night when Jackson dropped back 51 times. He had another big day (on limited volume) in Week 5 when Jackson logged 47 drop backs. Though Likely’s target earning (19.5 percent targets per route) has left a lot to be desired, he has a good chance to benefit from a pass-first approach against Tampa.
The same theoretically goes for Mark Andrews, who last week had three grabs for 66 yards and a touchdown. Andrews last week ran as many routes as Likely in a Baltimore offense using two tight end sets on about 30 percent of their plays. It’s tough to get beyond Andrews’ downright depressing 14.8 percent target per route rate though. The gimpy veteran is still not commanding targets.
A Ravens game plan that attacks Tampa’s coverage unit should make Rashod Bateman more than a little interesting. Bateman, who’s seventh best in ESPN’s open score this season, has 12 receptions on 12 targets over the past couple weeks. Bateman has 18 percent of the Ravens’ targets and 22 percent of the team’s air yards over the past two weeks. It’s not an entirely hateful receiving profile.
On Tampa’s side, beyond Godwin and Evans, Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard would be most likely to benefit if (when) the Bucs abandon the run and take to the air against a Ravens defense seeing the second highest neutral pass rate (65 percent). Otton, as he did in 2023, is getting by on ridiculous volume and occasional touchdown luck in a Bucs offense that has been over its expected drop back rate in every game this year. He has at least six targets in three of his past four games and now faces a Baltimore defense giving up eight tight end targets per game. You could do worse.
Patriots vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars, after being a nothing-funnel for the first few weeks of the season, are now a clear pass funnel. Only the Ravens, in fact, are more pronounced in their pass funnel ways. Jacksonville opponents are passing the ball at a 60 percent clip in neutral situations (when the game is within one score), the fifth highest rate in the NFL.
I understand the Patriots want to be hyper conservative and run heavy to make sure Drake Maye never absorbs a single hit in the pocket. Last week the Pats radiated loser energy with a -27 percent pass rate over expected (PROE) on first downs. They were -9 percent PROE overall. Whatever. I doubt New England will be in any position to establish it against the Jaguars, a team with the league’s 11th lowest yards before contact per rush, allowing the league’s eighth lowest rush EPA. Their pass defense, per the metrics, is hideously bad.
Inflated drop back numbers for Maye mean two things: Plenty of QB rushing — Maye had a 20 percent scramble rate in Week 6 against the Texans — and (potentially) heady target volume for his main pass catchers, Demario Douglas — who ranks tenth best in ESPN’s open score — and dad runner Hunter Henry. I wrote about their usage in this week’s Regression Files if you want more nerdy analysis of the Maye-led Patriots offense. Kayshon Boutee, who led the team in routes and caught a touchdown in Week 6, could also benefit from a pass funnel matchup.
Eagles vs. Giants
New York, allowing the NFL’s tenth lowest rush EPA and ninth lowest yards before contact per rush, have turned into a formidable run defense. It’s a development that makes me think Saquon Barkley might be held to less than 200 yards in his Week 7 revenge game to end all revenge games.
The Giants are the sixth most extreme pass funnel this season. They’ve seen opponents post a 61 percent neutral pass rate, the fifth highest in the NFL. Obviously this is a nice thing to hear if you drafted AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith. Consider Grant Calcaterra a sneaky play if Dall Goedert (hamstring) is sidelined for this game. Calcaterra ran a route on 90 percent of the Eagles’ drop backs after Goedert’s early exit last week against Cleveland and caught all four of his targets for 66 yards. Running 45 percent of his pass routes from the slot last week, Calcaterra should be considered a top streaming option for those down ridiculously bad at tight end.
Run Funnel Matchups
Jets vs. Steelers
We have the less-than-rare run funnel matchup here. The Steelers have seen their opponents go 10 percent below their expected pass rate this season. Jets opponents, meanwhile, are at -12 percent. Only the Commanders and Colts are more pronounced run funnels.
Breece Hall is in line to see another day with decent touch volume. He had 23 touches in Week 6 against the Bills after struggling to reach double digit touches in the previous two outings. Hall’s pass game involvement was heartening too. He ran a route on 76 percent of the Jets’ drop backs and saw six targets, second only to Garrett Wilson. Will Davante Adams’ presence in the Jets offense wreck Hall’s target share? Probably not. I could see targets in New York’s offense being awfully concentrated between Adams, Wilson, and Hall going forward.
Braelon Allen, meanwhile, was completely phased out of the passing attack in Week 5. After splitting pass-catching duties for most of the past month, Allen logged a meager four pass routes and did not see a target against Buffalo. He saw just three rushes (and had a short touchdown called back on a penalty). It appears the Jets have rededicated themselves to Hall, making Allen a dicey, touchdown-dependent play even against a run funnel like the Steelers.
Najee Harris should continue plodding along with a solid workload against a New York defense seeing opponents pass the ball at a low 51 percent rate in neutral situations. With Jaylen Warren back in the fold in Week 6, Harris had 14 of the Steelers’ 25 running back rushes (Warren, incredibly, had zero yards on seven carries). Harris and Warren split route running duties.
With the Steelers seemingly ready to bench Justin Fields for no particular reason, there should be more rush volume for both Steelers backs. Fields has accounted for 29 percent of the team’s rushing attempts through Week 6. Wilson’s lack of mobility likely means most of that 29 percent goes to Harris. Pittsburgh has been below its expected pass rate in four of six games in 2024.
Dolphins vs. Colts
This feels almost too easy, but worth your time if you have De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert on your roster. The Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa have turned into the 2000 Ravens: They are 20th in pass rate over expected since Tua’s exit from the lineup and an eye-popping 11 percent below their expected drop back rate. The Dolphins aren’t throwing the ball because they can’t throw the ball.
That might not matter in Week 7 against a Colts defense being wrecked by opposing rushers on a weekly basis. Indianapolis is giving up the 11th highest rate of rush yards before contact and seeing the second most rushing attempts per game against them.
Look for yet another run-first game plan from Mike McDaniel this week. De’Von Achane (concussion) is practicing, though his Week 7 status is yet to be determined. Mostert could be flex-worthy if Achane plays, and a must-start option if Achane sits.
An Achane-less Miami backfield would make rookie Jaylen Wright an intriguing if high variance fantasy option against the Colts. Wright had 86 yards on 13 rushes in Week 5 with Achane out. His 4.6 yards after contact per rush was sixth best among running backs on the week, and three of his 13 attempts went for more than ten yards. Wright profiles as the kind of back who can do a lot of damage in ten or 12 touches against a poor rush defense.
Chiefs vs. 49ers
The Chiefs, as we discussed on a new Galaxy Brains, are bored with the high-flying, pass-first offense that has served them so well during the Mahomes era. These Chiefs look more like Marty Schottenheimer’s Chiefs. At the risk of scrambling your brain, Kansas City’s offense is below its expected drop back rate in each of its past four games.
For context: The 2023 Chiefs — not exactly the pass heaviest of Mahomes’ career — dropped back at a 66 percent clip. The 2024 Chiefs have dropped back 58 percent of the time. It’s quite the gap.
Marty Ball might be just what they need in Week 7 against the 49ers, with opponents passing the ball at a 50 percent rate in neutral situations over the past three weeks. San Francisco is the fifth most extreme pronounced run funnel on the season. The Niners over the past four games have shown serious leaks in their rush defense; Pro Football Focus grades them as the NFL’s seventh worst run defense. The Niners aren’t giving up much in the way of long rushes, but they are being bled on the ground by recent opponents.
Barring some kind of weird game script, Kareem Hunt should once again be in line for 20 touches here. Hunt in Week 5 against the Saints saw 27 of the Chiefs’ 32 running back carries and had a very workman-like 103 yards and a touchdown. That the 49ers haven’t given up all that much rushing production in 2024 makes them look like a rough running back matchup. The metrics tell a different story, one that could be quite fun for Zero RB drafters looking to Hunt as a temporary plug and play option.
Enough running for the KC offense and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce might not see the sort of target volume fantasy managers are projecting. It’s something to think about.
