Let’s be honest. Most of the season, most family managers don’t really care that much about team defenses. Unless there’s a gaggle of big plays or a defensive score, they just don’t score enough to swing games.
Some folks just draft a big name and roll them out every week regardless of matchup. Other managers (the smart ones) wait until late in the draft, select a defense that has a favorable Week 1 opponent and then stream defenses all season long based on matchups.
But as we near the end of the season, for some fantasy managers the margin for error has evaporated. Lose another game, and that’s that. There won’t be any playoffs. Now, every lineup decision is a huge deal. Every point matters that much more. One sack or takeaway can be the difference between keeping hope alive and playing out the string.
Now, every position matters – including defenses and kickers.
OK, maybe not kickers – let’s not get nuts.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)
Week 12 kicks off with one of the best teams in the AFC playing against one of the worst – and a contest where the Steelers should feast defensively. Cleveland’s offense actually moved the ball well last week against the Saints, but the Clowns still managed just 14 points. The Steelers are eighth in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense, while the Browns have allowed a league-high 46 sacks and the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses. Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt has to be salivating over this matchup.
Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago Bears)
The Vikings are this year’s poster defense for the difference between a good NFL defense and a good fantasy defense. The Vikings are tough against the run, but they can be had through the air. They have also piled up big plays all season long, pacing NFL defenses in fantasy points most of the season. The Vikings have failed to hit the 10-point mark just twice in 10 games, and while the Bears looked better offensively a week ago, they lead the NFC in sacks allowed and have given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to defenses in 2024.
Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders)
When last we saw the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s No. 1 fantasy defense was dropping a piano on the Atlanta Falcons. The Broncos are fourth in the NFL in total defense, third in the league in scoring defense, pace the NFL with 39 sacks and have garnered 13 takeaways. The Denver defense is on the road this week, but it’s against a floundering Raiders team with bad quarterback play, banged-up running backs and no especially reliable pass-catchers outside tight end Brock Bowers. Only the Tennessee Titans have allowed more fantasy points to defenses this season.
Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Texans have worked their way into no-doubter status with some excellent defensive performances of late – double digit fantasy points in five of the past six games. Monday’s blowout of the Dallas Cowboys was the best of the lot – five sacks, a pair of takeaways and a fumble return for a touchdown. Now Houston heads home to take on a Tennessee Titans team that has spent most of the year leading the league in fantasy points surrendered to defenses this year. If you grabbed Houston for the Dallas matchup, by all means hang onto them.
Detroit Lions (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Lions are best known for their buzzsaw offense, but that offense also puts the defense in place to make big plays as teams try to play catch-up. Detroit ranks third in the league in fantasy points among defenses, and the Colts have been a favorable fantasy matchup, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this year. There is at least a little risk with this pick, however – the Colts are coming off their best offensive effort of the 2024 season from an execution standpoint, and the Lions lost No. 1 linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm last week.
Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
For the season, the Bears are a top-five fantasy defense. But that ranking is largely because of early-season success – since Chicago’s bye week the team barely ranks inside the top-12 in fantasy points. The Vikings are something of a similar story – as Sam Darnold has realized he’s Sam Darnold over the past month or so, his turnovers are up – and so are Minnesota’s points allowed to opposing defenses. Teams rostering the Bears have likely been riding them a while. Despite just two losses the Vikes aren’t a bad enough matchup to stop doing that.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Kansas City Chiefs (at Carolina Panthers)
Given that Kansas City’s 18th-ranked fantasy defense was at Buffalo last week and scored negative points in some fantasy scoring systems, there’s a good chance Kansas City is available on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. If so, now is the time to make with the scooping. Yes, the Panthers won two straight heading into their bye. But the Panthers are still at or near the bottom of the NFL in many offensive categories, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to defenses this season and the Chiefs are no doubt seething after their first loss of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Los Angeles Rams)
The Eagles rank just outside the top-12 fantasy defenses for the season, but they have been much better since the bye week – since Week 6, only the aforementioned Detroit Lions have more fantasy points at the position. The Eagles get knocked into streamer territory this week by the matchup – the Rams have gotten healthy at wide receiver and along the offensive line, and it showed last week against the New England Patriots. The Eagles aren’t likely to lay an egg this week, but they also aren’t especially likely to post a huge number.
Washington Commanders (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Commanders have been an up-and-down fantasy defense this season – there have been a few spike weeks but just as many clunkers. But if you saw the Dallas Cowboys get jackstomped by Houston Monday night, then you know why the Commanders are making an appearance in this week’s column. The Cowboys were actually already a top-10 fantasy matchup for defenses even before Dak Prescott went down for the season. Now, with Cooper Rush under center, Dallas is having all kinds of trouble generating offense – 16 points in the last two games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New York Giants)
The Buccaneers having been playing especially well defensively, especially of late – Tampa is allowing the third-most yards per game and sixth-most yards per game in the league this season. But this week brings a delicious matchup with a New York Giants team that will be rolling out Tommy “Stop Calling Me Danny” Devito at quarterback coming out of the bye. The Giants were already giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this year. Now the guy from the Jersey Mike’s commercials will be under center.
That joke never gets old.
Miami Dolphins (at New England Patriots)
Now we are well and truly into waiver wire plays – the Dolphins rank outside the top-20 fantasy defenses for the year and have eclipsed 10 fantasy points exactly once this season. But as the Miami offense rounds into shape, the pressure mounts on opponents to match scores. The New England offense has played better since Drake Maye took over under center, but the Pats are still dead last in the AFC in total offense and 30th in scoring at just 16.5 points per game. They have also surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Last week, the Steelers showed that it is possible to at least have a serviceable (two sacks and three takeaways) against Baltimore’s offense. There isn’t a team in the NFL surrendering fewer points per game this year than the Chargers. And Los Angeles is a respectable seventh for the season in points among defenses. But the Chargers’ worst fantasy outing of the season came last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Ravens lead the NFL in total offense and have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points per game to defenses through 11 weeks.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
