How will Maye fare vs. Texans? Simulating rookie QB’s first start originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots will look to rookie quarterback Drake Maye to righten the ship when they welcome the Houston Texans to Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Maye replaces veteran signal-caller Jacoby Brissett as the Patriots’ starting QB with the team aiming to snap a four-game losing skid. The third-overall draft pick made his official NFL debut at the end of New England’s Week 3 loss to the New York Jets, but Week 6 will mark his first career start.
Will Maye’s presence give the Pats offense a much-needed jolt? Or will the North Carolina product experience struggles similar to Brissett’s with a porous offensive line and a lack of weapons at his disposal? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated Sunday’s game once with Maye and once with Brissett to see how much of a difference the young QB makes.
Here were the results. . .
Drake Maye-led Patriots nearly pull off upset
While Maye doesn’t light the world on fire in his first NFL start, he gives the Patriots a chance to upset the 4-1 Texans in front of the home crowd.
In the simulation, Maye completes 23 of his 33 passes for one touchdown and one interception. His first NFL TD, a five-yard pass to running back Antonio Gibson, comes with 9:02 to go in the fourth quarter.
Maye’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but the final score does. New England loses by only one point with the rookie under center, 21-20.
The Brissett simulation is a continuation of what Pats fans have begrudgingly watched over the last few weeks. He completes 16 of 30 passes for 155 yards, no TDs, and one INT. New England’s only points come from field goals as it suffers another blowout loss, 21-6.
The Maye effect – Which pass-catchers benefit?
Both simulations were run under the assumption that starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson will miss Sunday’s game. Stevenson hasn’t participated in practice all week due to a foot injury.
With Stevenson out, dual-threat back Antonio Gibson steps up as New England’s most impactful offensive weapon. He notches 84 rushing yards and a TD on 17 carries in the Maye simulation while catching eight passes for 57 yards and another TD.
Rookie second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk leads the receiving corps with four catches for 32 yards.
The offense is run through Gibson with Brissett at QB. In the Brissett sim, Gibson has 20 carries for 88 yards and six catches for 43 yards, though he doesn’t make it into the end zone. Tight end Hunter Henry totals four catches for 42 yards and Polk is held to two catches for 17 yards.
Conclusion
Maye experiences growing pains in his first start but gives Pats fans something to cheer about in a game that comes down to the wire. While his stats are nothing to write home about, they’re a noticeable improvement as the Maye-led offense is able to make big plays in the red zone, something the Brissett-led group has struggled with in recent weeks. All things considered, it’s an encouraging beginning to the prized first-rounder’s NFL career.
Maye’s real first start will take place at 1 p.m. ET Sunday in Foxboro.
