Ohio State (9-1) is defeating opponents by an average scoring margin of 28 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking top-10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The primary area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, as they rank 91st with a 10.7% blitz down sack rate and 78th with a 7.2% big play rate on blitz downs. Defensively OSU is superb, ranking 1st nationally according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the third-fewest number of deep passes in the country, with just 8.2% of passes defended occurring 20+ yards downfield. They are allowing a somewhat elevated 61.8% completion rate, which ranks 78th nationally. Ohio State emerged 2-1 from a challenging three game mid-season slate against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and @Penn State (20-13), in addition to dominating Northwestern on Saturday. They close the season with two extremely consequential home games against Indiana (9–0) and Michigan (5-4).
Indiana has taken the nation by storm in HC Curt Cignetti’s first season at the HC of IU program, sitting at a perfect 7-0 heading into their titanic Week 10 showdown against The Buckeyes. The Hoosiers rattled off four straight easy wins to start the year before toppling Maryland 42-28. They went on another four-game Big Ten win streak before grinding out a taxing 20-to-15 win over Michigan where Indiana carried a 97% win expectancy despite the close score. Indiana’s offense has been one of the most potent units in the country, ranking second in success rate (55.5%) and 4th in EPA/Play. While Indiana’s 40.2 PPG offense gets a lot of attention, their 15th ranked SP+ defense also ranks 4th in EPA/play and 6th in suppressing explosive plays.
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Game Details and How to watch Indiana @ Ohio State
· Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Ohio Stadium
· City: Columbus, OH
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Indiana @ Ohio State – Week 13
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
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Moneyline: Ohio State (-420), Indiana (+365)
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Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)
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Over/Under: 54.5 points
This line opened at -11.5 in early trading but has edged closer to the key number of -10 and currently sits at -10.5 at most books. Indiana’s moneyline is ranging between +320 and +365, while Ohio State is toggling between -420 and -500. We got an initial total of 55.5 points, with the line down to 54.5 in most places.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State had a recent three game stretch against @Oregon, Nebraska and @Penn State where each contest was decided by 7 or less points. The Buckeyes are an even 5-5 ATS, while the undefeated Hoosiers are 8-2. I’m taking Indiana and the +10.5 points early in the week since I think the margin closes to -8.5 or less by kickoff.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Favorites
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Ohio State +320
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Oregon +450
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Georgia +500
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Texas +500
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Alabama +750
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Ole Miss +1100
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Penn State +1800
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Notre Dame +2000
Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Northwestern
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Ohio State: Fifth-year QB Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State, as he currently leads the nation’s sixth-ranked SP+ offense for an elite blue-blood national title contender. He’s completing a scintillating 72.7% of his throws and is working with future first-round picks in WR Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks 2nd in success rate and 5th in EPA/dropback despite throwing just 10.3% of passes 20+ yards downfield (118th). Howard’s 84.5 PFF passing grade is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous best being 72.7%.
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Indiana: QB Nathan Rourke spent his first four collegiate seasons at Ohio before transferring in this offseason, which has proved to be a prescient decision with Rourke leading the Hoosiers to a perfect 10-0 record. He’s completing 71.5% of his passes (#5 in FBS) with a sensational 21-4 TD/INT ratio and a 91.4 PFF passing grade that is tied with Jaxson Dart for the top spot in the country. He’s stretching the field too, ranking 10th among Power Four programs with a 10.1-yard ADOT, so his elite completion rate isn’t a product of checkdowns or manufactured short touches.
Betting trends & recent stats
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Ohio State’s opponents are holding the ball for an average of 30.3 seconds per play, which is the longest plays per second faced of any defense in the FBS. The OSU D ranks 1st nationally in points per scoring opportunity (2.26) and Red Zone touchdown rate (30%)
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Quinshon Judkins (OSU) has averaged 6.2 yards from scrimmage per touch this season– 3rd-best among Big Ten Running Backs; TreVeyon Henderson is running for 10+ yards on 27% of his carries (21/78), the highest mark in FBS.
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Indiana isn’t just winning games outright, as they’ve gone 8-2 against the spread which is comfortably the largest cover margin in FBS. The Hoosiers’ prolific offense is also responsible for their 7-3 record to the Over.
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Indiana receivers have gained 2,365 yards on 152 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season, which is tied for 11th-best among FBS pass catchers. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season, which ranks 3rd-best among Power Four defenses.
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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