With the Nasdaq bobbing above its 21-day moving average and just below the 20,000 level, and the S&P 500 testing its 50-day line, the stock market is in good standing as it prepares for 2024’s last couple of trading days.
Big moves by Nissan (NSANY), Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM) and Tesla (TSLA) have made automakers December’s fastest rising industry group. Boeing (BA) and Apple (AAPL) have led the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past month, which has so far pulled back not quite 5% for December and is finding some resistance at its 50-day moving average. Year-end profit taking has been even stronger among small caps, with the Russell 2000 down nearly 8% on the month, midway between its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
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What To Watch In Stock Market
Investors seeking year-end portfolio stocking stuffers might look to Boston Scientific (BSX), Burlington Stores (BURL), MasTec (MTZ) or Fortinet (FTNT). Boston Scientific is just finishing off a flat base, which also contains a rebound and a three-weeks tight pattern. Burlington has traded in a buy range for weeks. It’s also set to complete a flat base with 298.88 buy point after today. After regaining its 50-day line, MasTec is eyeing a move above its Christmas Eve high of 140.06 would break a downtrend, and offer early entry. Fortinet is in a flat base after a strong earnings gain. A move above this week’s high could offer an early entry.
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Tesla Q4 Deliveries: Great Expectations
The EV giant is expected to report full Q4 vehicle delivery data on or around Jan. 2. Tesla is attempting to shatter its previous delivery record and while analyst consensus predicts the company setting a new quarterly record for vehicle deliveries, it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to propel the company to yearly unit delivery growth.
Tesla has said it expects “slight” vehicle deliveries growth this year compared to the 1.81 million in 2023. The company needs at least 514,925 deliveries in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507, to make that goal a reality. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet. Tesla has experienced a strong quarter in China while unit sales in the U.S. and Europe have lagged.
Still In The Santa Claus Zone
The seven-day Santa Claus rally period began Dec. 24 and runs through Jan. 3. While this year’s is lagging so far, data collected by CFRA’s Sam Stovall shows positive Santa Claus periods on the stock market have, since WWII, preceded average annual gains of 10.4% for the S&P 500. The index posts an annual gain 74% of the time after positive Santa Claus rally periods, vs. a 9.2% frequency of advance for all years.
Declines during the Santa Claus zones precede gains averaging 5.7%, with the following year’s index advancing only 32% of the time. The January performance barometer is a more accurate gauge, Stovall suggests. Since 1945, a January gain was followed by an average 18.3% rise by the S&P 500 for the year, with the index advancing an average of 91% of the time.
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