Despite becoming a household name during the pandemic, Moderna (MRNA) stock has mostly fallen over the past three years amid decelerating sales and clinical pitfalls.
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Shares crashed on Sept. 12 after the company said it expects $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion in 2025 sales, below its view for $3 billion to $3.5 billion this year. Moderna also pushed out its breakeven point by two years to 2028. And, for 2027, the company now expects to cut its research and development budget by $1.1 billion.
That’s amid a massive commercial push. Today, Moderna sells two products — its Covid vaccine called Spikevax and a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, mResvia. But it’s going up against giants. Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) continue to lead the market for Covid shots, and both GSK (GSK) and Pfizer launched RSV shots a year before Moderna.
“We have a cautious outlook on both (Spikevax and mResvia),” Leerink Partners analyst Joseph Stringer said in a report. “We believe Covid vaccination rates will decline faster than expected and mResvia will face competitive pressure from approved RSV vaccines Arexvy and Abrysvo.”
So, is Moderna stock a sell today?
A Fundamental Look At Moderna Stock
Moderna stock plunged after the company reported its second-quarter earnings.
Sales tumbled 30% to $241 million. That included $184 million from Spikevax, down 37%, and $57 million in revenue from collaborations and grants. The company also lost $3.33 per share, narrowing slightly from the year-earlier loss. Both metrics beat expectations.
But the company cut its full-year sales outlook to $3 billion to $3.5 billion. Moderna’s previous guide was for at least $4 billion in sales.
The fall vaccine campaign could help Moderna. But even that could be a stretch. Executives said on the company’s second-quarter earnings conference call that contracting had already taken place for RSV vaccines before it gained approval. And Pfizer’s Covid vaccine still has about 60% market share, Leerink’s Stringer said.
For the third quarter, Moderna stock analysts project adjusted losses of $2.69 per share and $1.26 billion in sales. Sales are expected to accelerate again in the fourth quarter with projections for $1.57 billion. But analysts still project steep losses this year and a nearly 53% drop in sales.
Moderna stock has a poor IBD Digital Composite Rating of 3 out of a best-possible 99. The Composite Rating is a measure of a stock’s key fundamental and technical measures. So, shares rank in the bottom 3% of all stocks, regardless the industry group, on that measurement.
Moderna Stock: Technical Analysis
Moderna stock isn’t currently forming a base for investors to watch. Shares are below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a bearish sign — according to MarketSurge.
Moderna shares also have a poor Relative Strength Rating of 5, which has worsened significantly from 92 just three months ago. The RS Rating is a 1-99 measure of a stock’s 12-month performance. This means Moderna stock outranks just 5% of all stocks on that metric.
But MRNA stock has a poor EPS Rating of 15, reflecting recent losses.
Keep tabs on IBD Digital for more on stock ratings.
What’s After Covid Shots?
Regulators in several countries, including the U.S., have signed off on the updated version of Moderna’s Covid shot, which blocks the KP.2 variant. People as young as six months old can receive the new vaccine.
Moderna teamed up with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma to co-promote Spikevax. Moderna will handle the manufacturing, sales, medical education and distribution. Both companies will work to broaden access to Moderna’s products in Japan.
Moderna also received a $176 million award from U.S. officials to develop a pandemic influenza shot. The company has already finished dosing healthy people in early-stage testing. It expects to have the results of that testing soon. Pfizer began testing a pandemic vaccine last year.
The company is also working on a combination flu and Covid vaccine. On June 10, the company said the updated shot generated higher antibodies against three influenza strains and Covid compared to already licensed flu shots and its own Covid vaccine.
But Moderna stock fell on June 26 after the company unveiled subpar results for its RSV vaccine in comparison to Pfizer’s and GSK’s shots.
Further, the Merck-partnered cancer vaccine is still in testing. The companies combined the vaccine with Merck’s Keytruda and tested the regimen in people following surgical removal of their melanoma. After three years, patients given the combo were 49% less likely to have their cancer return than the group who received Keytruda alone.
So, Is Moderna Stock A Sell Right Now?
Moderna stock is neither a sell nor a buy right now. Shares were a sell when they definitely undercut their 50-day line on June 26 and their 200-day moving average on Aug. 1. That followed lackluster durability data for the RSV vaccine and the 2024 guidance cut, respectively.
Sales are also falling and losses continue. Analysts don’t expect a return to sales growth until 2025.
To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
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