With the Kentucky Wildcats ranked in the top 10 with an 11-2 record, including big wins over Duke and Gonzaga, it’s been a good start to the Mark Pope era as the non-conference slate comes to an end.
However, the most difficult is yet to come.
Entering conference play in an SEC that is being discussed as one of the strongest conferences in recent memory, Kentucky has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. 14 of their 18 conference games will be Quad I opportunities. Their first opponent will be the Florida Gators on Saturday.
Considered one of the best young coaches in the country, Todd Golden has led Florida to a 13-0 record, holding the nation’s longest active win streak and No. 5 national ranking in the Coaches Poll. However, the Gators have played just one top-50 KenPom team in a struggling North Carolina squad.
Is Kentucky ready for the physicality of the SEC? Is Florida for real? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Pace and Defense
Kentucky and Florida both rank top 10 in field goal attempts and average just more than 15 seconds per possession. Meaning, this is going to be a fast-paced contest with a lot of shots.
Just like Kentucky, Florida prioritizes attacking in transition. The best way to stop that is by scoring. So, in a way, Kentucky’s best defense against Florida is their offense. That means efficient movement, on and off the ball, and good shot selection.
When getting into halfcourt defense, Kentucky needs to be prepared for a lot of ball screens, an area they have been focusing on since the loss to Ohio State. “All of our guys were struggling to remember if there was anything involved in the game of basketball except for ball screen defense. We repped and repped and repped,” Pope said after the Brown win.
Offensive Rebounding Battle
Florida is the best rebounding team in the country by average. Statistically, Kentucky is, too, but there have been times they have lacked effort on the boards, most recently in the first half against Brown.
With Florida, it’s not just one player; it’s a balanced attack, with six players averaging more than five rebounds per game. All five Kentucky players on the floor will need to make the effort to box out and not look to leak out early.
Florida really excels on the offensive glass, rebounding 41% of their misses. That said, they give up nearly 10 offensive rebounds to their opponent per game, an area where Mark Pope prioritizes every game.
If the Cats can be in the net-positive with offensive rebounds, it would be huge for their chances to win.
Free Throws
Statistically, Florida’s biggest weakness is its free-throw shooting, which is 73.4% compared to Kentucky’s 73.8%.
Similar to Kentucky, the Gators have been inconsistent from the charity stripe, shooting nearly 82% on 33 attempts in one game this season to shooting 56% on 25 attempts in another.
All projections expect this to be a close game and taking advantage of FREE throws will always help your chances to win.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Walter Clayton Jr 6-3, 195 lbs
- 17.2 PPG (10th in SEC)
- 3.8 APG
- 37% 3P
G Will Richard 6-4, 206 lbs
- 14.2 PPG
- 5.0 RPG
- 2.2 SPG (8th in SEC)
F Alex Condon
- 11.2 PPG
- 7.5 RPG (10th in SEC)
- 1.5 BPG (8th in SEC)
Time: 11:00 AM ET on January 4th, 2024
Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: ESPN
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook does not yet have a spread, so check back later for that. EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 43.9% chance of winning, Bart Torvik is at 54%, KenPom is at 47%, and ESPN is at 58.8%.
Predictions: EvanMiya has Florida winning 82-77. Bart Torvik has the Cats winning an 83-82 thriller. Haslametrics is going with an 84-78 Florida victory. KenPom has the Gators winning 82-81. I’ll give the home team the edge in this one and predict an 85-83 victory, Kentucky!
How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Florida score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!!
