BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — We are in the peak portion of hurricane season, which means that we typically see a good amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is watching three areas for potential development.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are no longer expected to redevelop and the low to its west, Invest 96L, is not expected to see any significant development. A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa will need to be watched next week, as well as a disturbance that could form in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of now, there is still plenty of uncertainty with the outcome of a potential system in the Gulf and no immediate threat is present for Louisiana. However, residents all along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida will need to watch this closely into this upcoming week.
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Caribbean/Gulf Disturbance
Model guidance continues to trend in favor that an area of low pressure will form sometime over the mid-to-latter portion of next week over the Northwestern Caribbean or Southern to Central Gulf. However, there is a good amount of uncertainty in how any potential system could evolve down the road in regard to its track or intensity.
Currently, there is no disturbance present, so there is a 0% chance of development over the next two days. Over the next seven days, there is a high chance, 70%, of tropical development.
A tropical depression could form over the mid-to-late portion of next week as the disturbance slowly moves northward into the Gulf.
There remains a lot of possibilities of any potential system that forms in terms of the exact track it may take and what intensity it becomes. It is essential not to get hung up over one particular model run you may see, as those will change and continue to struggle until an actual low develops for them to track.
The picture should become clearer as we progress through the weekend into next week once a disturbance emerges.
There is currently no immediate threat here in Louisiana, but it is important for those all along the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant and tuned in to the forecasts over the next week. It is also a good idea to have your hurricane kits stocked and ready to go as we continue through hurricane season.
Invest 96L
This invest area is a small cluster of showers and storms with a broad low-pressure center. Significant development is not expected as it drifts northward over open water in the Atlantic.
African Tropical Wave
A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the coast of Africa early next week. Some gradual development is possible with a medium chance, 40%, over the next seven days where a tropical depression may be possible as it moves to the west over the Central Atlantic.
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