I went to Google and I put in just one word in the search bar.
“Hope.”
The first result came from an “AI Overview” and read like this:
“Hope is an optimistic feeling or state of mind that involves expecting positive outcomes, and can be used as a noun or a verb:
· As a noun
Hope can refer to:
· A desire that is accompanied by the expectation of fulfillment
· The expectation of success or fulfillment
· A person or thing that one has hope for
· Something that is desired or hoped for
· As a verb
Hope can mean:
· To expect with confidence
· To cherish a desire with anticipation
· To want very much”
As a Commander fan
Hope can only mean one thing:
· JAYDEN EFFING DANIELS.
If you’re reading this column, you play fantasy football, and you either watched or are very well aware of what Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels did to the Bengals last Monday night. Superlatives and overly-gushing adjectives are, frankly, inadequate. I mean… the dude had a 91% completion percentage. Not a typo. He was 21-of-23 for 254 yards with two passing touchdowns. He ran 12 times for 39 yards and a rushing score, as well. But it’s not just the pure numbers. It’s how and when he put them up.
It’s the third-down conversions. It’s the fourth-down conversions. It’s the gutty running. It’s the zero turnovers. It’s standing in the pocket when you know you are going to get LIT UP, but you stand there and take the hit because you need to give Terry McLaurin enough time to get open down the field, and then just as you’re getting crushed, you deliver a perfect 27-yard dime to McLaurin in the corner of the end zone to seal a game on the road in primetime against a desperate, winless Bengals team.
So yeah, you know all that from the box score, the highlights, the last few days of non-stop TV talk, and if nothing else, you just read it.
The part that doesn’t show up in the box score is the hope.
Hold that thought.
I’ve told this part of the story before but for those new in class, I was born in Denver, and spent two years in Atlanta, but the majority of my formative years from ages 4 to 12 were spent in Richmond and Charlottesville, Va. My dad is a huge sports fan and so is his father, so it was no surprise that I watched sports at an early age.
As an NFL fan, Jack Pardee was the first Washington coach I remember, and when he was fired in 1981, 11-year-old me desperately wanted the team to hire Bum Phillips, the colorful Houston Oilers coach who had just been let go after “Luv Ya Blue” had failed in the playoffs once again. There was no internet back then, and we didn’t have that new thing called cable TV, so I was disappointed when they hired a Chargers assistant I had never heard of named Joe Gibbs.
It would be the last time Washington would disappoint me for a long, long time.
Gibbs, of course, became one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, leading Washington to an amazing run, including four Super Bowl appearances, winning three, and I was in, hook, line and sinker. I collected all their football cards, I watched every game, I read every article I could find and my most-prized possessions were a Washington helmet I wore everywhere and an autographed photo of Joe Theismann. I had mailed him a fan letter, and I’ll be damned if a month or so later he didn’t send back a signed photo.
As is often the case, what was important to you as a child becomes central and beloved to you when you’re older. And so as I grew up and moved around from city to city, my faith in the Burgundy and Gold stayed glued closely to me and obviously continues to this day, many decades later.
It wasn’t always easy. In fact, it was really damn hard for, oh, about 20 years there. The Dan Snyder era was the worst ownership era of any professional sports team in the history of the world. I will die on that hill. I could spend 10,000 words on Snyder’s failings alone and still not be able to fully capture it, but I promise I won’t. I’ll just quickly boil it down to two quick points.
First, on the field. Under Snyder, the team went 164-220-2 in the regular season, rarely making the playoffs and the few times they did, not showing a lot of success, going 2-6 in the postseason.
Then, even worse than that, was off the field. I’ll just sum it up like this. For over two decades, when you were a Washington fan, people would come up to you and say, “Did you see the Snyder story?” And you’d sigh and have to legitimately ask, “Which one?”
For so long, every problem the team had (and there were so, so many) were entirely self-inflicted. And I wanted to bail on the team. I tried. I really did. But I couldn’t. That was my childhood. That was my first love. It’s ingrained in me in a deep-rooted way that will never leave me.
I am smart and experienced to know that winning at the highest level is hard, man. And that every team in every sport goes through ebbs and flows. Any objective sports fan knows that, sometimes, even with a ton of research from the smartest people in the game, there are players, coaches, and seasons that just don’t work out. And let’s be real. My team has won three Super Bowls. They were a long, long time ago when I was a kid, but still. Three rings. A lot of people are fans of teams that have never played for a championship, let alone won one. So yeah, I’m not asking you to feel sorry for me. I didn’t like it but, though frustrating, I could live with the losing.
The part I couldn’t live without? Hope.
I always want hope. We all do. No matter how small, how infinitesimal, we just want a glimmer of hope. It’s the famous scene from Dumb & Dumber, right?
Lloyd: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Well, Lloyd, that’s difficult to say. I mean, we don’t really–
Lloyd: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I’d say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you’re telling me there’s a chance? *YEAH!*
It’s why I love having players going on Monday night. No matter how badly I got crushed on Sunday, like facing Jauan Jennings, Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams on one team… there’s still maybe a chance. A chance for a #MondayNightMiracle. Some epic performance that brings my fantasy team back from the dead and into an improbable victory, like, ahem, Jayden Daniels gave us on Monday night.
I want that hope. I need that hope. I crave and live for that glimmer of hope. I have hope for my kids. For my career. For my family, friends, and the world at large. I have hope for my fantasy teams and yes, dammit, lots of hope for my beloved Washington Commanders.
It started with Snyder selling the team to a professional, experienced ownership group led by Josh Harris. But the group took over just before the 2023 season started and there wasn’t much they could do last year. But this year, they had the time to put their imprint on the team, including hiring general manager Adam Peters, head coach Dan Quinn, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
And the collective of them, and others, drafted none other than Jayden Effing Daniels.
Yeah.
Now, let’s be clear.
We still need a lot of help on defense. We needed Daniels to literally play a perfect game and to put up 38 points on Monday to win that game. Things like that won’t happen every week.
Winning in the NFL is hard and Washington’s upcoming schedule, which includes games against the rest of the AFC North (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland) and the NFC South (New Orleans, Atlanta and a suddenly-resurgent Carolina) won’t be easy. Not to mention, we still have two remaining matchups against both Philly and Dallas.
So the football analyst part of me knows this is likely not a playoff team this year.
That’s the logical part of me, but hope feeds on emotion and I’ll be damned if I’m not eating it up.
Because last Monday night, as Terry McLaurin made an incredible catch in the end zone, I jumped up and pumped my fist in the air, and as I turned, I caught a glimpse of myself in the mirror. And I realized Jayden, Terry and the Commanders had just given me something that I hadn’t seen in a long time.
A big smile during a game.
My phone and social media mentions were blowing up. My friends and I were texting each other back and forth the same thing: “I’ll be damned. We have a quarterback. Legit. We HAVE A QUARTERBACK.”
We have a long way to go, but man, for the first time in a long time, I have real hope. Pure hope that this season, and many more in the future, the good will outweigh the bad, that things that seem dark will quickly turn to light, that while we won’t win every game, we have a chance in every single one, and that’s all you want. Something to believe in.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
You’re damn right I am.
Hail to the Commanders. Hail victory!
Let’s get to it. As always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. And a reminder to please check out Fantasy Football Happy Hour every day on the NFL on NBC YouTube page, on Peacock and wherever you get your podcasts. And Sunday morning be sure to check out Fantasy Football Pregame from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube page where we answer more questions than any other pregame show.
Finally, if you need more than hope to help you win your fantasy league, check out FantasyLife+ where we have tools like waiver assistant, trade rater, and league sync, plus customized weekly ranks for your scoring system, DFS, Pick’em and sports betting tools as well. It’s really a terrific product.
Here we go.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 4
Kyler Murray vs. Washington
This Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET, I will transform from “Matthew Berry, fantasy analyst” to “Matthew Berry, human embodiment of the grinning heart-eyes emoji.” Because it is then that Cardinals and Commanders will kick off, and I will get to watch a head-to-head battle between my 2024 “Ride Or Die” Kyler Murray and my 2024-2050 (Or So) “Greatest Quarterback In The World And Savior Of My Washington Commanders” Jayden Daniels. Daniels, in his infinite wisdom, has decided that scoring on every drive – or at least never punting – is the way to go because the Commanders defense is, well … a work in progress.
Washington has the second-worst pass defense this season, allowing the most passing touchdowns and giving up a league-high 24.4 PPG to quarterbacks. Plus, every quarterback to face Washington thus far has finished in the top seven at the position in fantasy for the week. It’s why the Cardinals have the highest implied team total this week. It’s also why I have Kyler Murray as my QB2, who I have no doubt will lead the Cards to 50 total points in a heartbreaking 1-point loss to my beloved Commanders. A guy can dream, right?
Jayden Daniels at Arizona
While Murray is QB2, Jayden Daniels is QB1 (in my heart) and QB3 for Week 4. Daniels is one of only three quarterbacks with multiple 25-point games already this season, joining Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Not bad company. Daniels has also carried the ball 10-plus times in every game and leads all quarterbacks with six goal-line rushes. And now he gets an Arizona defense that is allowing the third-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks and facing them in a game with the highest Over/Under (50) in Week 4. Lots to love again this week with Daniels in fantasy football and in real football. By the way, can I be honest for a second? It just blows my mind that some of you have to spend every week rooting for a team that doesn’t have a young, superstar quarterback running the show. I can’t even comprehend what that must be like. Has to be awful. I bet your quarterback has at least one game with less than a 91% completion percentage. You poor miserable bastards.
C.J. Stroud vs. Jacksonville
The Jaguars rank third worst in pass defense this season and have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Maybe Jacksonville’s defense is why Trevor Lawrence is struggling so much. Think about it: going from facing the Jaguars in practice to playing a real defense on Sundays must be like suddenly switching from Rookie to All-Madden mode. Either way, C.J. Stroud has a great matchup here in a game in which the Texans have the second-highest implied total of the week. Trevor Lawrence just looks broken to me and I don’t think it gets better anytime soon. So I expect a lot of three-and-outs and good field position for the Texans at home. Those last two words are important. Remember, Stroud is especially good at home. For his career, he averages 21.0 PPG and 305 passing yards in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium. He’s QB4 for me this week.
Others receiving votes: I mean, it’s no Jayden Daniels completing an NFL rookie record 91.3% of passes in a single game, but it’s still impressive that Geno Smith has completed more than 70% of his passes in every game this season. Seattle is also airing it out more this season. In fact, they’re tied for the highest pass rate over expected. Smith also has some positive recent history at Detroit, his Week 4 opponent. Last season in Week 2, he threw for 328 yards and two scores on the way to 23.1 fantasy points at Ford Field. … Look for Justin Fields to do some damage with his legs against the Colts on Sunday. Jaylen Warren is banged up for Pittsburgh and Indianapolis has allowed the third-most rushes of 10-plus yards this season. The Colts also just saw Malik Willis run for 41 yards against them in Week 2 and the Steelers are showing increasing trust in Fields running their offense, especially near the goal line. He has 50% of Pittsburgh’s goal-line rushes this season. … Last year, Joe Flacco came out of nowhere, now it’s Andy Dalton. Apparently playing AFC North franchise quarterbacks from over a decade ago is the new market inefficiency. (Some teams may want to consider kicking the tires on Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer. Where’s Tim Couch when you need him?) Anyway, Dalton has a good matchup this week against his old Bengals team that is traveling on a short week. Cincinnati is allowing touchdown passes at the seventh-highest rate this season and Carolina will likely need to throw as a 4-point underdog in this matchup. Dalton, by the way, now has 300-plus yards and at least two touchdown passes in both of his career starts with Carolina.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 4
Anthony Richardson vs. Pittsburgh
I’m not saying Joe Flacco will be starting soon for the Colts, but it’s been a rough start to 2024 for Anthony Richardson. And now he has his toughest matchup yet. Pittsburgh is first in scoring defense and ranks top five in both rush and pass defense. The Steelers also have yet to allow a quarterback to post double-digit fantasy points on them. The Steelers’ defense will be looking to make plays on Sunday against Richardson, who has yet to have a game this season with a completion rate above 50%. In fact, his 17.8% off-target rate is second-highest among quarterbacks this season. The only quarterback who has been worse in that department? Bryce Young. Ooof. But, hey … look at the bright side: Richardson may get sacked a bunch this week, preventing him from throwing off target. Hooray! Things will get better for A-Rich, but not before they get worse. Richardson is outside my top 15 in Week 4.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Denver
Aaron Rodgers went for 21.0 points in Week 3, marking the first time he’s put up 20-plus fantasy points since Week 17 of the 2021-22 season. True story. Running, slinging it, man he looked great. But while it was nice to see Rodgers join quarterbacking legends like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco as late-career fantasy producers, I’m not sure I see it continuing in Week 4. The Broncos this season rank second in pass defense and sixth in scoring defense, totally shutting down Baker Mayfield last week. (Heading into the game, Baker was one of the top three QBs in fantasy). Denver also allows the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.8). This matchup is slated to be both low scoring (Over/Under of 39.5) and controlled by the Jets, which are 7.5-point favorites. That likely means a run-heavy game script. And all of that means I have Rodgers outside my top 15 quarterbacks this week.
One note I should mention, however, is that Aaron Rodgers and his guy Nathaniel Hackett hate Broncos head coach Sean Payton. Like, with a fiery passion. So while I expect the Jets to be up big and not want to risk Rodgers’ health in a game they’re winning big, I also wouldn’t put it past Rodgers to totally try to pad stats to embarrass Payton. So understand this is a risk/reward “Hate.”
Running Backs I Love in Week 4
Saquon Barkley at Tampa Bay
Okay, so a super, super obvious name here but I’m putting him here just to make a point. It’s not that he’s my No. 1 overall RB this week. Oh no. He’s here because he’s my No. 1 RB overall and the first pick you should make if you did a draft for the rest of the season today. Which, by the way, you can, at GuillotineLeagues.com where you can draft any week you want with whatever size league you want. It’s also 100% free to play, if you want to try it out. And if you do and have the No. 1 pick and want to take Saquon, I’m on board with that. He’s healthy, he leads all backs in touches this season at 24.3 per game and he might become an even bigger part of Philadelphia’s game plan considering receivers A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Britain Covey are all various degrees of injured. Then there’s the fact that Barkley has a great matchup this week against a Bucs team that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Tampa also ranks bottom 10 in success rate against run plays. Barkley is No. 1 overall in fantasy right now, averaging 28.1 PPG, and I have every reason to believe he’ll stay there.
Aaron Jones at Green Bay
So Aaron Jones is averaging 18 touches and 108 scrimmage yards per game. He is Minnesota’s go-to option at the goal line, so much so that he has the second-most goal-line rushes in the league this season, as well as multiple goal-line carries in every game. Plus, he’s being used in the passing game with the second-highest target share (19.4%) among all backs. I’ve only said it for what seems like forever. These are the kind of things that happen when you #FREEAARONJONES. Getting goal line work and massive passing game work in a matchup against his former team that just happens to have given up the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs? Revenge game? You’re damn right revenge game. Hand me a purple sombrero because I have Jones as a top 10 fantasy back this week.
James Conner vs. Washington
James Conner has 19-plus touches in two of his three games this season. Yes, he only had 10 last week, but Arizona only possessed the ball for 23 minutes against the Lions. That feels more like an aberration than the norm. Conner should also be able to do some damage against a Commanders defense that is allowing 5.2 YPC to running backs this season, which is fifth-highest in the league. Running backs who have received 17-plus touches versus Washington this season are averaging 17.3 PPG. Yes, the Commanders’ defense is terrible against both the run AND the pass. Can I please just enjoy Jayden Daniels for a minute without you focusing on Washington’s defense? Yeesh. Anyway, I have Conner ranked as RB10 this week.
Zack Moss at Carolina
Who is really to blame for Cincinnati’s 0-3 start? Sure, you can blame future Hall-of-Famer and future Super Bowl Champion Jayden Daniels for one of them, but what about the other two losses? Well, whoever you point the finger at, don’t point it at Zack Moss. He’s on pace for more than 1,100 total yards and 11 touchdowns and is currently RB20 in fantasy. His touches have increased every week and his 75% snap rate is sixth among backs. He has 100% of Cincinnati’s goal-line rushes and 11 of their 12 RB red zone touches. Moss is also being used in the passing game, with a double-digit target share in two of the three games so far this season. Oh yeah, I’m all about that Zack’tion. This week he faces a Carolina defense that ranks bottom five in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed to backs. I have Moss as my RB16 in Week 4. If you want a consistent RB2 option, you should seriously consider getting Moss’d.
Others receiving votes: In a shocking development, the Cowboys are off to a bad start to a football season. Most are blaming their run defense, but Jerry Jones is blaming himself. Which makes me think: Is Jerry Jones on Dallas’ defensive line? How else to explain Dallas being ranked last in run defense and giving up the most fantasy points to backs? The Cowboys are clearly playing an 81-year-old man on their D-line! It all makes sense now! It also makes sense to play Devin Singletary against the Cowboys this week. Singletary is averaging 17 touches per game and handling 77% of the Giants’ RB touches. That workload will do well against this Dallas defense. … Sometimes, much to my chagrin, the Commanders have to have someone other than Jayden Daniels touch the ball. Oftentimes, near the goal line, that has been Brian Robinson Jr. He’s top five among RBs in goal-line carries this season and, with Austin Ekeler in concussion protocol, that usage won’t drop. Robinson Jr. also has a positive matchup in Week 4 against a Cardinals team that ranks bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to backs. … Jaylen Warren’s injury-riddled start to the season has been good for Najee Harris managers. Harris is averaging 20.7 touches per game and this week faces a Colts defense that has allowed the most rushing yards to running backs. … Assuming Jerry Jones doesn’t move himself from DT to RB, you have to like the usage trends for Rico Dowdle. He now has consecutive games with 10-plus touches and a double-digit target share. I have him ranked inside my top 30 this week against a Giants defense allowing 5.3 YPC to backs, the third-highest in the league.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 4
De’Von Achane vs. Tennessee
A season after averaging 7.8 YPC, De’Von Achane has been held under 3.0 YPC in two of his three games. Now he faces a Tennessee defense that allows the sixth-lowest YPC to running backs this season at 3.7. Oh, and Achane will be facing that defense with either Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley playing quarterback in front of him. (Yes, Tyreek Hill as the “Bugatti parked by a mobile home” meme should get a lot of use this week.) None of those QBs will stretch the field much, allowing Tennessee to key on the run game. The Dolphins have the fourth-lowest implied team total of Week 4 for a reason. You’re still starting Achane, of course, but lower expectations. I have Achane outside my top 10 for the week.
J.K. Dobbins vs. Kansas City
The Chargers have the second-lowest implied team total this week. Some of that has to do with Justin Herbert possibly being out, sure. But even if he plays, the Chargers will still be heavy underdogs. That’s not a great game script for Dobbins. Also not great for Dobbins? So far this season, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. That includes keeping Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson under 50 yards. I have Dobbins as a low-end RB2 this week. He’s my RB26.
Rhamondre Stevenson at San Francisco
The Patriots have the lowest implied team total in Week 4 AND they’re the biggest underdog of the week (+10). That’s not just a bad game script for Rhamondre Stevenson, that’s the kind of script where you read through it and discover you have no speaking lines and are killed off in the opening scene, so you fire your agent for getting you crappy parts. By the way, when the Patriots played tight games in Weeks 1 and 2, Stevenson saw 20-plus touches. Last week, in a 21-point loss to the Jets, he got just six touches. And don’t plan for work in the passing game to save you, Stevenson managers. So far this season, New England ranks 19th in RB target share and Stevenson has just 15 total receiving yards.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 4
Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Washington
Well, good thing the Cardinals didn’t cut Marvin Harrison, Jr. after his Week 1 debut, huh? Since his 1-4-0 line in the opener, on just three targets, Harrison has been WR5 in fantasy over the past two weeks. He has a 34.5% target share in those two games and leads all players with five end zone targets over that same span. Now, he gets a Washington defense that has allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season with nine. That’s three more than any other team. The Commanders have also allowed 22-plus points to at least one WR in every game so far this season. In fact the only negative thing I can say about facing the Commanders secondary is it doesn’t seem fair that Jayden Daniels doesn’t get to face them in a game this year. Anyways, fire up Harrison, Jr. on Sunday and say your prayers if you’re facing him. He’s my WR6.
Nico Collins vs. Jacksonville
C.J. Stroud says Tank Dell is his best friend, but Nico Collins seems to be Stroud’s friend with benefits. And by that, of course, I mean the benefits of target share. Collins leads the Texans in target share (26%) and is seeing 67% of Houston’s end zone targets. Stroud and Collins also have a special connection at home with Collins averaging 21.8 PPG in his 10 career home games with Stroud under center. This week Collins gets a Jacksonville defense that has given up the fourth-most yards on deep passes, fifth-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, and watched the third most tape on currently available defensive backs. Give me Collins as a top 10 WR this week.
Diontae Johnson vs. Cincinnati
It turns out the key to unlocking Diontae Johnson’s fantasy production in Carolina was having footballs thrown somewhat near his body. Magic! Last week, in Andy Dalton’s first start of the 2024 season, Johnson went for a career-high 122 receiving yards and 26.2 fantasy points – the most he’s posted since Week 13 of 2021. Johnson got a 38% target share from Dalton and now, with Adam Thielen placed on IR, he might even see more targets. Add to it that Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-highest catch rate to wide receivers, and I have Johnson ranked all the way up at WR11. I’m all about that Diontackion. Hmm. Feels like that one might be too much of a stretch. Hmm. Gimme a second. OK, on Sunday you’ll say, “Hey, Hey Diontae!” No? Hmm. You’re right. Let me get back to you. In the meantime, start Johnson.
Chris Godwin vs. Philadelphia
Through three games, the Eagles have allowed the sixth-most yards and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to the slot. That’s great news for Chris “My Middle Name Is Slot” Godwin. (Editor’s Note: Godwin’s middle name is actually Christopher and his first name is Rod.) Godwin’s 30.9% target share ranks seventh among wide receivers this season and he has seen a target share of at least 26% in all three of his games. Have to love that consistency. That’s why this week Godwin is changing his name to Chris “Matthew Berry’s WR12” Godwin. (Editor’s Note: Still no.)
Dalton Kincaid at Baltimore
Only five tight ends have played all three games this season and averaged more than 10.0 fantasy points per game. And no tight ends in that group are averaging more than 13.6 fantasy points. It’s hard out there on the tight end streets. Tight End University might lose accreditation. But perhaps a savior will appear in one Dalton Kincaid. In that high-powered Buffalo offense, it’s Kincaid who leads the Bills in both red zone and end zone targets. He also happens to have a positive matchup this week against a Ravens team that has allowed the second-most receptions, yards, and fantasy points to the tight end position. Both Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson finished as top three TEs when they played the Ravens this season. I have Kincaid as a TE4 this week.
Others receiving votes: We liked Jauan Jennings last week, but we didn’t know for sure what we would get out of him with a full-time workload. Now we do: a team-high 40% target share and two end zone targets. With Brandon Aiyuk likely to get the Christian Gonzalez shadow, Jennings’ target share should stay high in Week 4. New England, by the way, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … As the old saying goes: “Rome wasn’t built in a day and Rome Odunze’s fantasy impact wasn’t built in a week.” After a Marvin Harrison, Jr.-esque NFL debut with just one catch, Odunze has three end zone targets in his past two games, as well as a season-high 23% target share in Week 3. He also has seen 45% of his targets over the past two weeks come on deep balls. I like Odunze this week against a Rams defense that has been abysmal defending vertically, allowing the most yards and touchdowns on deep passes. … Baltimore has allowed the eighth-most yards to the slot this season, which is even more reason to think Khalil Shakir will continue to emerge in Week 4. Shakir has double-digit fantasy points in every game this season and a team-high 19.7% target share. … Over the past two weeks, Darnell Mooney has a 28.6% target share and is averaging 16.2 PPG. He also has a route participation of 99% so far this season. He deserves similar fantasy starting lineup participation in Week 4. … The 49ers have allowed the most yards to the slot this season, so deeper leagues that are scrounging a bit might wanna look at Patriots WR Demario Douglas. In Week 3, Douglas had a target of 37.5%. … The Rams have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. That means that Cole Kmet has a positive matchup in Week 4. Kmet has seen his route participation and snap rate increase every week. … Zach Ertz is actually tied for the Washington team lead in receptions so far this season and has a 17% target share. That alone is reason to be positive in this bleak 2024 fantasy tight end landscape. But maybe the Commanders target him even a little extra this week against his old team, the Arizona Cardinals. Revenge game? Sure, why not. Revenge game! And yes, if you are keeping track, I like both Andy Dalton and Zach Ertz in fantasy this week. What year is it again?
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 4
Garrett Wilson vs. Denver
Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season and – not surprisingly – receivers getting shadowed by Patrick Surtain II have especially struggled. In Week 1, DK Metcalf went for 3-29-0 and 5.9 fantasy points. In Week 2, George Pickens also put up 29 yards, but on just two catches. And in Week 3, Mike Evans had two catches, but only for 17 yards. In what should be a low-scoring game (Over/Under of 39.5), it’s hard to see a scenario in which Garrett Wilson bucks the trend. But hey, who knows. Maybe Wilson will put up the best fantasy game of the season against Surtain and … break the lofty six-point barrier. I have Wilson outside my top 20 WRs this week.
Courtland Sutton at New York Jets
Among all 77 players with 10-plus targets this season, Courtland Sutton’s 44% catch rate is fourth-lowest. And he’s 75th out of that group of 77 in fantasy points per target. This week, Sutton will face Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and a Jets defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest yards to wide receivers. I have Sutton ranked as WR37 this week, and even that feels a bit generous.
Michael Pittman vs. Pittsburgh
Michael Pittman has less than 40 receiving yards in all three games this season and a catch rate of just 55%. Now, Pittman faces Pittsburgh, which has allowed the fewest receptions to wide receivers, and he will likely draw coverage from Joey Porter, Jr. On the positive side, dating back to last season, Pittman has now put up five consecutive single-digit fantasy performances. Gotta love the consistency?
Mark Andrews vs. Buffalo
I normally don’t advise panicking on a player after three weeks, but if you drafted Mark Andrews early, you should definitely be covered in a cold sweat and breathing into a paper bag at this point. I mean, Andrews is TE30 in PPG right now (4.2). And he’s not necessarily in line for positive regression either. Andrews is currently fifth on the Ravens in targets, behind the likes of Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill, and last week had a season-low snap rate (33%), running just six total routes. Panic, panic, panic. Andrews is down at TE14 this week.
