The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
MIAMI HEAT
2023-24 finish
Offseason moves
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Additions: Alec Burks, Nassir Little, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson
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Subtractions: Caleb Martin, Delon Wright, Patty Mills, Orlando Robinson
The Big Question: Is there a path to a contention-caliber offense?
Since Jimmy Butler’s arrival, the Heat have made five straight playoff appearances and two trips to the NBA Finals. The combination of Butler’s two-way brilliance, Bam Adebayo’s evolution into one of the NBA’s most complete players and coach Erik Spoelstra’s gift for transforming any roster into a top-10 defense establishes a high floor. And when Butler’s play takes a turn toward the transcendent …
… the ceiling ain’t half-bad, either.
Reaching it isn’t easy, though. Last season, the Heat finished bottom-10 in offensive rating, effective field-goal percentage, how frequently they attempted shots at the rim, team shooting percentage on at-rim tries, points in the paint, offensive efficiency in “clutch” situations and scoring efficiency in transition, among other categories.
“We need to improve,” Spoelstra told reporters. “We need to innovate.”
And while Spo and the gang certainly won’t shrink from that challenge …
Erik Spoelstra asked about teams in the East getting better such as Philly and New York
His response:
“You sound scared.”
— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) September 30, 2024
… a league-average-at-best attack likely won’t be enough to outpace the East’s best teams.
“Spo is always talking about being a top-five defense and a top-five offense,” Butler told reporters. ”That’s the formula for success.”
The recipe starts with better health, most notably for Butler — who, Playoff Paul Bunyan act aside, has yet to play 65 games in a season in Miami, has missed an average of 20 games per year and just turned 35. (In a related story, he entered camp without a contract extension; in another related story, he didn’t bring his bits to media day.)
Injuries limited Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro to just 527 minutes together last season and to just 118 minutes with trade-deadline acquisition Terry Rozier (who quietly averaged 18-4-4 and shot 42% from deep after the All-Star break). In theory, more lineups featuring multiple shot-creators and on-ball/spot-up threats should have more pathways to generating good looks — particularly if Herro’s really working more off the ball and if Spoelstra really shifts the offense a bit from iso-heavy play toward more fluid, faster-moving sets.
“I am definitely intentional about seeing what Terry, Tyler, Jimmy [and] Bam looks like,” Spoelstra told reporters.
He’ll also need to be intentional about how he fills the frontcourt vacancy left by Martin. Will he look to Haywood Highsmith, re-signed on a two-year, $11 million deal? The 6-foot-5 27-year-old with the 7-foot wingspan could prove a bargain, if last year’s shooting — 42% on corner 3s (albeit on just 84 attempts) — can carry over in a larger role.
There’s also third-year forward Nikola Jović, who might offer the most utility as a shooter, complementary playmaker and offensive connector:
nikola jovic shot 39.9% from three last year on 6.8 3pa/75, really impressive volume and efficiency for a 6’10 21 year old
always flashed awesome touch as a prospect even if the efficiency wasn’t consistent pic.twitter.com/iOYvU0jfy7
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) October 7, 2024
After cracking the rotation in late December, the 20-year-old Serbian averaged eight points, four rebounds and just under two assists in 20.2 minutes per game, shooting 39.7% from 3-point range on nearly four attempts a night. Miami outscored opponents by 9.1 points-per-100 when Jović shared the floor with Butler and Adebayo; that margin came in just 407 minutes, but it merits more exploration.
Whether it’s Highsmith, Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or someone else who lines up next to Adebayo, it could be the Heat’s center who helps the offense take the biggest step forward … especially if he keeps taking a step back.
After shooting 68 3-pointers through his first six seasons, Adebayo went 17-for-52 from deep in 2023-24, then shot nine from the FIBA line during Team USA’s run to gold in Paris. He aims to fire at least 100 triples this season.
Nobody expects Bam to turn into Kristaps Porziņģis overnight. But if his outward migration continues on an upward trajectory, it could be a massive boon for Miami’s often-congested offense, with better half-court spacing meaning wider driving lanes and a livelier drive-and-kick game.
“Hopefully, this is an offense that will be on all cylinders in the second half of the season,” Spoelstra said.
If it’s not — if they once again struggle mightily to score, flailing to stay above the play-in fray, with Butler’s $52.4 million player option looming — then the Heat might find themselves facing existential questions. Not about floors or ceilings, but about what exactly they’re even trying to build anymore.
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Best-case scenario
A motivated Butler turns in his healthiest and most productive season in a Heat uniform, earning his first All-NBA First Team selection in the process. Adebayo makes good on his promise to launch more 3s, reducing the number of things he can’t do on a basketball court to … zero? Spoelstra finds the right blend of shooting, playmaking and defense in the first five, and whoever winds up on the outside looking in — I’m thinking Jaquez — makes a strong push for Sixth Man of the Year. We look up in March and are stunned to realize that Miami’s en route to a top-four seed and poised for another deep postseason run.
If everything falls apart
Butler, Herro and Rozier continue to struggle with injuries, leaving Adebayo overtaxed trying to shoulder a superstar’s shot-creation workload and plug every leak on defense. The youngsters sputter under the bright lights, and with financial flexibility and draft-pick assets scarce, there’s no cavalry on the way. The Heat enter another spring watching teams they once vanquished move past them in the postseason and the league’s pecking order, and are forced to face a future full of difficult choices.
Fantasy spin
As one of the top defenders in the league, Adebayo is a reliable source of points, boards and steals who will be off draft boards by the fourth round. If he continues launching 3s, it’ll be a compelling development for his fantasy profile.
Butler’s ADP is rising from a late-to-mid fourth-round pick — despite his sketchy contract situation. Still, health has been an issue, as Jimmy Buckets has not played over 65 games since the 2016-17 season. Herro has his share of injury concerns, too, and has underperformed relative to his seventh-round ADP. Similarly, Rozier is looking for a bounce-back campaign after his fantasy production soured once he was dealt to Miami last year.
Kel’el Ware is a sleeper I’ve been targeting late in drafts because he’s looked great in the preseason and his play reminds me of a mix of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dereck Lively II. Ware is the innovation that Coach Spo speaks about. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
Slight bumps for the offense and in overall health should get Miami past this number. How much further it’ll get than that, though, very much remains an open question.
