Wall Street has turned gloomier on oil prices as signs of weak demand and plenty of supply have weighed on the crude market.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent (BZ=F) forecast for the second time in a month, citing recent price declines that signal the risk of “considerable demand weakness.”
The analysts now predict Brent will average $75 in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised forecast of $80 issued in late August.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose to trade near $68 per barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, was hovering near $71 per barrel.
“Oil prices have recently followed a path that resembles periods of considerable demand weakness and calendar spreads are already consistent with recession-like inventory builds ahead,” wrote Morgan Stanley equity analyst and commodity strategist Martijn Rats and his team.
Despite the recent price trends, the analysts said “demand indicators are concerning, but it remains too early to make ‘recession-like’ demand the base case.”
Rats and the analysts pointed to willingness from OPEC+ to balance out the market. Last week, the oil alliance delayed by two months the start of some of its voluntary cut rollbacks, originally slated to begin in October.
Other Wall Street firms have also lowered their expectations for crude prices, driven primarily by weak demand out of China, the largest crude importer.
JPMorgan recently cut its fourth quarter forecast from $85 to $80, citing “oil’s large underperformance” in August.
Last month, Goldman Sachs decreased its 2025 prediction for Brent by $5 per barrel to a range of $70 to $85.
Increasing signs of economic cracks in the US and Europe, where the summer driving season has been unwinding, have also weighed on prices. Oil’s downturn has helped precipitate a plummet in gas prices in the US, as well, with at least one analyst predicting the national average would fall to $3 by the end of the year.
Crude recently touched its lowest level of 2024, erasing all of their year-to-date gains.
Despite an overall market rebound on Monday, WTI is down roughly 3% year to date and hovering near its lows for the year. Brent crude is down about 5% during the same period.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
